Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 12/14

Top Pick Stats: 620 - 1918 / $3,341.60 (-$494.40)

Best Bets: 91 - 176 / $290.00 (-$62.00)

Spot Plays: 41 - 172 / $352.00 (+$8.00)

Best Bet: ERVIN HANOVER (9TH)

Spot Play: HOW MUCH (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 3/3,8,10/7/3,5,7/4,5 = $3.60

Middle Pick 5: 1,2,7/1,8/4,5,8/4/2,6,7 = $10.80

Late Pick 5: 4,5,8/4/2,6,7/7,8/3,5,7,10 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 3,5,7/4,5/1,2,7/1,8 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 4/2,6,7/7,8/3,5,7,10 = $4.80

Race 1: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 6) RACES OR $71,000 LIFETIME. AE: 3 YEAR OLDS OPT. CLM. $60,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE **$75,000 Pick 5**

This field doesn’t look any tougher than the one that (3) DREBIN beat last week, and he gets the nod to notch the threepeat. (6) R NO MERCY was first up in the Harvest Series final, and that trip wasn’t going to work. He can get a good share here starting from the best post. (7) HUNGRY HILL finished three lengths behind the choice in two straight starts. He is in the exotics mix here. (5) DEVASTATE’s local debut was decent. He is another that should be part of the exotics.

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES, 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW 2 RACES OR $29,500 LIFETIME

(8) STAG ROYAL couldn’t get past tough Dirty Diana last week, but she looks best here, and she gets top billing. (10) CHANCY BET adds Lasix tonight which could explain the stretch fade last time; using. (3) PRESCELTO lacked room for the early part of the stretch, and she closed with good energy once clear. She is another in with a shot here that is worth using in the Pick 5. (9) CHASIN RAINBOWS faces tougher coming off her maiden win. I think she is a fringe player tonight.

Race 3: VALEDICTORY: 3 YEAR COLTS & GELDINGS IN 2024, NW $60,000 LIFETIME AS OF OCTOBER 31, 2024. NO ALLOWANCES. LEG 2

(7) BRUDON went too fast to the 1/2 last week and got picked off. He should have better luck tonight and he gets the nod to rebound tonight. (6) LOTTO MAX won the other division and from the best post and he figures to be the main threat here. (5) A CLASS YANKEE failed as the overwhelming favorite last week when racing first up. I think he looks for a helmet to follow this time and he should be in the exotics mix. (3) BETTHEBEACH YANKEE finished with good energy last week. He likely won’t challenge the top two here, but he can get another share.

Race 4: FILLIES & MARES, NW $10,550 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW $57,750 IN 2024 - Pick 4

(7) HOW MUCH gets off the rail tonight which means she should be up on the pace early. That gives her a big shot vs. these, and she gets the nod. (3) MYSTIFYING was impressive winning last week, making two moves and she is capable of stepping up in class and doubling up; using. (5) WILDCAT STAR is Macdonald’s choice of four here and she is in the exotics mix at a minimum. (4) WESTERN WISH drops but she was beaten by the choice last time she raced at this level. She can get over bet here and I will play to beat her as a possible underlay.

Race 5: FILLIES & MARES, NW $5,550 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $9,750 LAST 8 STARTS. (W/O $17,500 LAST 10 N/E) AE: N/A $1,565 P/S IN 2024. AE: NW 2 RACES IN 2024

(4) ZEBS BREAKING DAWN gets post relief for this second start back and she retains Macdonald and the step up doesn’t appear to be tough. I’ll give her the nod. (5) CARSONS GOUDA is another that should be better getting post relief and she is the second one that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. (3) CHIEFS DREAM GIRL fits well at this level but she seems more likely to take a share than a win; using underneath. (1) BETTERNOTMACHME should be able to close for a share starting from the inside.

Race 6: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 6) RACES OR $71,000 LIFETIME. AE: 3 YEAR OLDS OPT. CLM. $60,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE - Pick 5

(7) SATURDAY was a solid 2nd to a repeat winner last week and he has a good chance to lead all the way vs. this group. (1) VALUABLE MISS has turned her form around in her last two starts and she should be a threat to repeat here, probably looking to rally late after starting from the rail post; using. (2) PERFECT ANGEL does her best work with Macdonald in the bike, and she is another that should be passing rivals late. She is another possibility for multi-race tickets. (4) FABULOUS FREDDIE fits well here, but he has missed six weeks. Considering that stale date, I’ll use him on the bottom.

Race 7: NW $14,750 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $29,500 LAST 10 STARTS

(1) WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH lands in a spot where I think he can trip out and get up late; top call. (8) WHATCHULOOKIN AT is in solid form, and he should get sent forward leaving the gate again tonight. He is dangerous racing from close range; using. (5) UNCLE SHANK A is another that will likely get sent harder at the start this time. He is in the exotics mix. (6) LIVINTHEBEACHLIFE shoots for four straight facing tougher tonight. A small share is likely for him in this spot.

Race 8: FILLIES & MARES, NW $15,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $28,500 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: NW 6 RACES LIFETIME. AE: N/A $3,950 P/S IN 2024 - Pick 5

This race will likely be dominated by droppers (4) SO MUCH MORE and (5) SHES GOT IT ALL. Nod goes to the former who won last time she raced this low on 10/25. (8) CAVIAR N CRACKERS motored up from the back to win on a night where the front was the place to be. She is in with a shot here coming off that impressive winning mile. (2) LEE LOO steps up off a win and a small share is likely her ceiling tonight.

Race 9: PREFERRED - Pick 4

(4) ERVIN HANOVER has been unbeatable at this track recently and it’s hard to imagine any of his five rivals knocking him off here. (2) FORTIFY was 2nd to the choice on 11/16 and he likely completes a chalky exacta tonight. (1) POWERTRAIN likely sits until the lane then rallies for a share. (5) JACK PANIC tries hard every week, but a small share is likely all he can hope for in this field.

Race 10: VALEDICTORY: 3 YEAR COLTS & GELDINGS IN 2024, NW $60,000 LIFETIME AS OF OCTOBER 31, 2024. NO ALLOWANCES. LEG 2

(2) SOUTHWIND INFUSION missed a month between starts but still managed to take a win in Leg 1. He should be even sharper now and he gets the call to repeat. (6) LIKE A GLOVE makes his second start after missing some time due to a sick scratch and he likely needed last week’s start. He fits well here, and he can be better this week. (7) GANDALF THE BAY has some of the best form in this field, and he projects to get a good trip racing on or near the lead; using. (3) GANSBAAI can close for a slice in this spot.

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Race 11: FILLIES & MARES, NW $2,500 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,185 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS)

(8) STONEBRIDGE DRAMA raced much better last week now she is likely to get more aggressive leaving the gate; top call. (7) BETTER BE DONNA improved with Roy in the bike, and he sticks here. She is another that will likely get put into play earlier in the mile and she is the other one that I’ll use on late multi-race tickets. (3) TREASURES WATCHING comes off a good effort, but she is hard to back on top with a 3% driver. I’d demand a price here. (5) CHELSIS CHOICE has a good late kick on her best day, and she can close for a share here.

Race 12: NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: N/A $2,200 P/S IN 2024

(5) LEGION SEELSTER drops to a good spot here and I doubt we will get the 8 to 1 morning line quote; top call. (3) THE GREEK FREAK should be the main threat drawing well and making his second start back. (7) HP LIS SHADOW fits well with a tag at this level and he does his best work with Jamieson in the bike. He has a chance to repeat. (10) SAULSBROOK IAN drops and gets Macdonald back and he will offer a square price from his wide draw; price look for the late multis. (2) SPEAKER OF PEACE has been sitting and rallying for shares. That trend likely continues tonight.