Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 12/13

Top Pick Stats: 370/1076 (-$397.40)

Best Bets: 47/96 ($10.20); Spot Plays: 19/96 (-$53.60)

Best Bet: DUBLIN DASHER (Race 8)

Spot Play: COCO JO JO (Race 10)

Early Pick-5: 1,5/4,6/5,6/3/7,9 $3.20

Middle Pick-5: 1,5/6,7/5/6/4,7 $1.60

Late Pick-5: 5/6/4,7/1,6/5,8,10 $2.40

Race 1: FILLIES & MARES, NW $2,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $8,550 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000. AE: N/A $900 P/S IN 2025.

(5) SANTAFES APPETITE was a big trip horse, but got rid of that moniker last week when blasting to the front and completely bottoming out the field. She’s every bit good enough to repeat. (1) BLUE POINT gets a significant drop in class this week after a couple of subpar efforts against much tougher company. Look for her to come through with a big effort tonight. (2) ONLYTHEGOODDIYOUNG looks like the most reliable price chance in this group. She should be closing from the back again and can get a piece.

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Race 2: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(4) STEAMBOAT SPRINGS has been knocking on the door in recent weeks. He faltered last week, but is likely to rebound with J-Mac sticking in the bike. (6) EARLY ACTION is in excellent form right now and continues to hold his own at this tough claiming level. (3) BOLD SPIRIT is the speed threat if he is ready to roll; Davis should leave a bit. If he gets to control the pace, he could easily wire them.

Race 3: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $42,500) LIFETIME. AE: N/A $130 P/S LAST 4 STARTS.

(5) DREAMFAIR DIAMOND sprinted home with a sharp final quarter last week in her career debut. J-Mac has a nice freshman filly here that he should pilot to another sharp finish. (6) MY GIRL FRIDAY has produced two sharp wins in two efforts in her young career. The driver tactics will be interesting on both her and the #5, who came from off the pace to get their wins. (1) LAYDEE FREIGHT is the obvious off the pace factor from the rail. Her last line shows a strong middle move and she held well for the win.

Race 4: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $9,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(3) JIMS RISING SON is an improving gelding coming into this race with form that is deserving of a win over the Mohawk oval. With a good post again tonight, he’s perfectly positioned to trip out or go all the way. (7) ALLSTAR COMMANDER showed sharp speed in his only recent start around the Mohawk oval. He comes off a sharp qualifier at Flamboro and should be in line for a strong finish if he is forwardly placed again. (1) TONINO has shown flashes in his last two, but will need to work out the right trip from the rail to get himself in position to use that big move. I can see him getting a piece.

Race 5: NW $9,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: N/A $2,530 P/S IN 2025. AE: NW $90,000 LIFETIME.

(7) WRITE ME A ROSE comes off two clear prep races from bad posts. This is a perfect spot off the drop for McNair to get aggressive and get him back to form. (9) LAMBORGHINI LOU is the dangerous closer; even from post nine he can launch a sharp stretch kick. If they mix it up early, he could roll over them late. (4) WALLACE HARTLEY has been ultra-consistent, always finishing on the scene late, and his recent lines show he can stalk or come first-over. With a better trip, he is right there.

Race 6: 2 & 3 YEAR OLDS NW $15,000 (ON SIRED $18,750) LIFETIME.

(1) TICKET STATION draws fine for J-Mac who tends to use the rail aggressively. His morning prep after being off was sharp. (5) BET HE ROCKS is lightly raced but talented. His morning prep on Dec. 5 was fine, and Cullen gets on board. If he is tight enough, he could be the best of the rest. (3) IMACUTELILSTALKER fits well at this level despite the eighth place finish last time. He should be better in his second start around the track.

Race 7: FILLIES & MARES OPEN.

(6) ABSOLUTION is the closer you always fear in these Open Mare fields. She regularly flies home and has been facing the very best mares on the grounds. If the fractions are lively, she becomes extremely dangerous. (7) GRIT N GRACE got the jump on everyone last week after getting a cheap middle half on the front end. She should be a strong front-end factor again. (9) TELLS ON A ROLL comes from post nine but is razor sharp and has been pacing sub-1:51 miles consistently on fast tracks. With Cullen, she could sweep them late at a big number.

Race 8: NW $9,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: N/A $2,530 P/S IN 2025. AE: NW $90,000 LIFETIME.

(5) DUBLIN DASHER is the most consistent grinder in this group and rarely paces a bad race. Expect him to be on the move in the early stages again and rebound. (3) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS tends to get away poorly but has sharp finishing power, and his class drop makes him appealing. If MacDonald can get him spotted mid-pack, he has the kick to get a big piece. (6) POSEIDON SEELSTER is streaky but when he’s right, he’s extremely fast. He might need a couple off the bench, but don’t sleep on him.

Race 9: OPEN.

(6) TAURASI has found top form again after a little bit of time off. He should be on the move again and in a perfect spot to keep his top form going. (4) REMEMBER THE ALAMO has been the de facto Open king in recent weeks but Taurasi has dethroned him for that title as of late. It’s likely for him to be sitting right in front or right behind Taurasi. (1) COLD CREEK QUESO draws the rail and has been flying home every week against top-tier company, including that monstrous :25 4/5 final quarter on Nov. 15. MacDonald is likely to protect position, and from there he is the one they must beat.

Race 10: FILLIES & MARES, NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $15,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000. AE: NW 2 RACES IN 2025.

(7) COCO JO JO was much better in her latest, grinding out a sharp second place finish. She has struggled to string together winning efforts, but I’ll give her the nod after a race like that. (4) CENTURY JAMILA could be ready to roll in her third start back since July. I would look for her to be forwardly placed again. (1) BETTERNOTMACHME draws inside this week and has posted consistent speed even with her recent horrendous draws. She should be able to kick home strong and get a piece.

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Race 11: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $37,500 LIFETIME.

(8) MOVING ON OVER used a sharp middle move last week to pull even with his rivals and eventually cruise in the final eighth of the mile. He races off the claim again tonight and keeps leading driver James Macdonald. (1) DUSTY LANE LEVI is the main danger here after an open length win. J-Mac was listed on him too, but chose off for the aforementioned Moving On Over. (2) POWER CODE hasn’t raced since September, but comes off a sharp qualifying win with a solid middle move. I would look for him to be passing horses late and getting a piece.

Race 12: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $12,000 LAST 8 STARTS (W/O $15,000 LAST 8 STARTS N/E).

(5) SNACK ATTACK is a horse that I haven’t necessarily been the biggest fan of this year, but he fits extremely well in here off the drop in class. I think his class shines here, and he could be set for a down the road score. (10) MYULTIMATE SNOWY A got a lot of mileage out of a front-end journey two starts ago. A similar trip is expected from the high draw if he wants to have any chance to win. Roy sticks after a tightener. (8) WHY WOULDNT YA has some good pop at the end of his miles, but the company that he keeps up with is usually fast enough to hold him off when he closes from the back. I’ll use him underneath.