Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 12/11

Meet Stats: 392 - 1145 / $2,092.50 (-$197.50)

Best Bets: 58 - 104 / $200.70 (-$7.30)

Spot Plays: 27 - 105 / $190.50 (-$19.50)

Best Bet: CHANTEE (3RD)

Spot Play: SILVER MAPLE (10TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,4,9/6/7/2,5,7/3,7 = $3.60

Late Pick 5: 1,3,4,6/4,6,9/4/1,4,5/1,3,5 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 2,5,7/3/1,3,4,6/4,6,9 = $36

Late Pick 4: 4/1,4,5/1,3,5/1,3,4,5 = $36

Race 1: NW $5,000 L5 or $13,500 L10 **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(9) BUZZ moved way up in class following his win on 11/26 and missing a check Monday night means he gets to take a class plunge now. There is no secret to his strategy. He will be looking to wire these and he is the one to beat. (2) FLY BEYOND also drops and he could be sitting in the choice's pocket throughout. That makes him dangerous; using. (4) GOLD EDITION won racing one level higher then this in October and he seems to fit well here. He is the third one that I'll use in the opening leg of the Pick 5. (7) TIMESTORM is another dropper in here but he figures to finish on the edges behind the other that are getting class relief.

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Race 2: NW $30,000 L5 or $175,000 LT AE: NW1 L3

(6) JIMMY FREIGHT returns after being off for 25 months and if his most recent qualifier is an indication, he is ready to roll. Driver Roy appeared to have him under a death grip at the wire and he was still pacing a 27 2/5 kicker; top call. (2) POINTS NORTH comes off a huge winning effort where he never saw a pylon until the stretch and he still kicked clear. He is the one to fear. (5) SWEET DEISEL kicks home fast every race and the short field should help him. He has upset potential tonight. (1) UHTRED tried the front end last week and it didn't work. I expect him to look for a following trip tonight and take a share.

Race 3: Valedictory Pacing Series 1st Leg 3YO Colts and Geldings

(7) CHANTEE is simply the fastest in here and he can control this race by floating out and rolling to the front. He should be tough to beat. (6) ROYAL TANG was motoring in the lane last week but he ran out of racetrack. That was a solid effort and he can be an Exacta factor tonight. (2) TAKE A GAMBLE did some good work in the Harvest series and he should contend racing from close range tonight. (3) GREAT SOMEWHERE had a rough trip in the Pop Up final and he still passed rivals in the final 3/4 of the race. He should be good for another share here.

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Race 4: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $17,000 LT - Pick 4

(2) SPORTS REPORT raced tough against a big chalk last week and he simply got outsprinted late in the lane. He gets top call here. (7) THAT’S A BEACH has been terrific beating lesser at the 'B' tracks and he is sure to take plenty of action here. He is probably the one to beat. (5) SAULSBROOK VICTOR comes back much quicker tonight and his big late kick could play well here; using. (1) GLOBAL CRUSH should be good for a small share vs. this group.

Race 5: NW $5,000 L5 or $14,000 L10

(3) INTRIGUED AGAIN produced two big miles after being sold and moving into the Auciello barn and he stacks up well in this field; top call. (7) MACHDAVID was up against it Monday night because the conditions were generally unkind to closers. Assuming the track plays fair tonight, I expect to see him come flying late; using. (6) MODERN ROCK drops one level here but he is an infrequent winner and I prefer to use him underneath tonight. (2) CROSSCUT is another that should race better at this level and take a share.

Race 6: 5YO and Younger NW3 or $38,000 LT - Pick 5

(6) THATLL BE SPORTY drops back to a similar level where he jogged two starts back and he is the one to beat here; top call. (3) HIPPYJOHN was a victim of pace and trip last week and he still closed willingly. He is sharp and dangerous. (4) OKIE FROM MUSKOGEE was a game winner despite having to grind it out uncovered and he is another that is in with a chance here. (1) LOU ED ZEPPELIN closed willingly in close quarters along the pylons last week and he can be an exotics factor again.

Race 7: NW3 (F&M5) or $40,000 (F&M $50,000) LT

The surprise element (and price) is gone with (9) TRUFFLES TOO now, but if he repeats the same effort that he produced last week, he will likely double up. (6) HP RUNNING MASS shoots for a repeat and he could get another sweet trip following the choice; Exacta factor. (4) DEALIN WITH DEWEY gets post relief tonight and he should be in the exotics hunt this week. (3) MODERN MASS is always a good one to use in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 8: 5YO and Younger NW6 or $80,000 LT - Pick 4

(4) COMMANDING OFFICER was huge in victory here last week and off that strong winning effort, he gets the call to repeat. (6) SHADOW IN RED finished 2nd twice to his stablemate (top choice in Race 2) in his qualifiers for this and he is fast enough to beat these if he is ready to roll; Exacta factor. (3) FOREFATHER figures to take another share racing close to the front. (2) CAPTAINOFROCKNROLL brings good form in from Flamboro Downs and he can land in the Super tonight.

Race 9: NW $11,000 L5 or $23,000 L10 or NW $100,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $35,000

(5) WOODMERE STEALDEAL paced the fastest mile of his life last week despite having missed three weeks. If he shows improvement in this second start in the Auciello barn, he can beat these. (4) HES SWIFT races best at this level and he should be heard from tonight on the class drop. (1) UNDRTHSOUTHRNSUN N always seems to find a good trip and he is hard to leave out of the Tri. (2) WIND BLOWN is capable of producing big efforts when he gets loose leads, but I don't seem him being allowed to cut the mile unchallenged tonight; small share predicted.

Race 10: Valedictory Pacing Series 1st Leg 3YO Colts and Geldings

(3) SILVER MAPLE comes off a sharp two-move win in preparation for this series and he should be the one to beat tonight leaving from a better post than he had last week. (5) CENTURY HANNIBAL is another who comes in off a sharp win that featured a big final 1/4. He should be a threat here; using. (1) BETTORBEFLYIN has shown gradual improvement and drawing inside gives him a chance to work out a trip. He has upset potential tonight. (2) TEXAS MIKI dug in to outsprint a rival to the wire last week but these are tough and I'll use him underneath tonight.

Race 11: NW $8,000 L5 or $18,500 L10 AE: Horses who started in a Popup Event

(4) RESPECT OUR FLAG gets class and post relief here and this is a field that he should handle if he is within striking range at the head of the lane; top call. (1) NIGHT WATCHMAN has improved in the Moreau barn and he should be a speed threat tonight; using. (3) THRILLING TIMES raced well in both starts since shipping in from Ottawa and he has shown some versatility. He is another that is in with a shot here. (5) PRICELESS BEACH tripped out to win the Pop Up series final, easily beating a couple of tough rivals and he's not out of this. (10) REVOLT should be able to take a slice despite drawing widest tonight.