Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 1/21

Top Pick Stats: 28 - 84 / $137.60 (-$30.40)

Best Bets: 6 - 8 / $23.70 (+$7.70)

Spot Plays: 1 - 8 / $5.20 (-$10.80)

Best Bet: WHAMMER JAMMER (6TH)

Spot Play: JORDAN DEO (11TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,4,7/1,2,3/6,7,8/2/1,6 = $10.80

Late Pick 5: 2/1,2,7/3,6,7,8/3/1,7 = $4.80

Early Pick 4: 2/1,6/2/1,2,7 = $1.20

Late Pick 4: 3/1,7/6,8/1,2,8 = $2.40

Race 1: F&M NW $6,000 L5 or NW $12,000 L10 AE: NW2 in L5 AE: OPT CLM $45,000 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

Good betting race to kick off the early Pick 5 here. (4) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP drops and she figures to be tighter in this spot returning to a 7-day cycle; slight nod. (2) TWIN B TIPSTER was aggressively-driven in her last start for Team Cullen and although she has missed some time, she would be no surprise here going for new connections. (7) AHOY is another dropper that should go better in this spot and she will be on my Pick 5 ticket. (9) SETTN A PRECEDENT is another dropper that figures to improve but from out there I'll use her underneath.

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Race 2: NW $3,000 L5 or $8,100 L8 AE: Starters for a purse of $9K or less L3 or NW $2,100 L3 AE NW $32,000 in 2022/23

(6) WOODMERE FENN was good in his first start out of the West barn as expected but he had too far to come in the lane. I'll stick with him. (2) ACTOR HANOVER will rightfully take a lot of action on the class drop tonight and he will likely be the one to catch. (1) OUTLAW ACEOFSPADES is at the top of his form cycle and he is another in with a shot here. (4) SHADOW IN RED should improve enough at this level to land in the exotics.

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Race 3: 5YO and Younger winners of 2 but not more than 5 or $50,000 LT or NW $1,800 L4 AE 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $50,000

Great betting race here with several sharp horses to choose from. (8) EMMETTS BUDDY has been flying home and he will likely get another setup again; slight nod. (6) BACKSTREET GAMBLER fell a head short of a fourpeat last week and he couldn't be any sharper. His tactical speed makes him a must-use for me. (7) LAST BEACH has been good in every start since returning from a lameness absence and he is the third one that is in with a good shot here. (1) MIDNIGHT MOOD can close for a piece of the Super at a price.

Race 4: NW $20,000 L5 or $28,000 L10 AE: Starters for a purse of $16K or less in 1 of L5 - Pick 4

(2) DESPERATE MAN should be tough here after showing speed vs. better and not missing by much last week; top call. (7) CADILLAC BAYAMA was too far back last week. From a slightly better post, I think he gets a better start tonight. He can take a good share here. (9) CODENAME CIGAR BOX draws worst but he can take a slice vs. this group. (3) DONTPOKETHEDRAGON drops out of the same race as the choice; price look for the exotics.

Race 5: NW $13,100 L5 or $27,000 L10 or NW $100,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $65,000

(1) SOUTHBEACH HANOVER raced well despite missing a month due to sickness now he gets back to a 7-day rotation; top call. (6) SECOND BRUISER raced well despite stepping up in class last week and he should get a good stalking trip here starting from the best post; using. (5) ROCKME ROLLME was a victim of pace last week. He should be in the exotics mix vs. these. (9) HESINCONTROL was just that last week but he likely takes a smaller share this time facing tougher.

Race 6: 5YO and Younger NW2 or $31,000 LT AE: NW $3,500 in 2022-23 - Pick 5

(2) WHAMMER JAMMER faced much tougher than these in his past three starts and he should have a big shot in here. He will be a single for me. (1) PALLADIUM HANOVER raced well last week but he was no match for the winner late. He can be an Exacta factor tonight. (3) JUJU HANOVER got sideways late in the mile, costing him a chance of threatening for the win. Look for an equipment change on this gelding tonight. (7) DON'T POKE THE BEAR rarely misses taking a share and he should be part of the Tri or Super here.

Race 7: Popup Series Consolation

(7) ALTA ENGEN A looks best of this group and he could go right down the road tonight; top call. (1) CLEVER CHARACTER took a win in the opening leg then was no match for streaking Beachin Lindy. He is the obvious danger. (2) MAXIMUMLOVIN should get a good trip racing near the front this week and he is in the exotics mix. (3) LORD ANTHONY should pass a few of these late; using underneath.

Race 8: 5YO and Younger NW2 or $37,500 LT AE: 3YO, 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $35,000

(8) JACK PANIC always looked the winner despite giving the lead up in the third 1/4 last week and he gets the call to repeat at what should be a square price. (6) FULL DISCLOSURE adds Lasix and his strategy is never a secret. He will have to be caught. (7) BELECHICK is as consistent as they come and he should be in the mix despite moving up off the claim. (3) FLIGHT ONEFORTYSIX comes off two tough trips in a row. He is a contender but it's hard to predict his trip at this point.

Race 9: PREFERRED - Pick 4

I’m not sure how you can make a case to try to beat streaking (3) SAULSBROOK VICTOR right now. I can't. (6) WHEELS ON FIRE likely needed last week's start and he seems most likely to beat the choice if there was going to be an upset. (2) POINTS NORTH flew late but he was unlucky, getting shaded by a horse that enjoyed a better trip and found room late. He can close for a share here. (1) SINTRA should be good for a slice starting from the rail.

Race 10: Popup Series Final

(7) BEACHIN LINDY has absolutely dominated the preliminary legs of this series and he will be hard to take down as the odds-on choice. (1) I AMA ROCKET was trapped in for most of the mile by a parked horse that kept hanging around. He found room in time and mowed the leaders down. He should be closing in the lane again here; Exacta factor. (2) DR JOE closes well every week, often overcoming tough trips. He figures to be part of the exotics in this final. (3) SUN CHIP went a big trip with McNair in the bike last week and that driver sticks here. He could better this placing with a good trip.

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Race 11: 5YO and Younger NW2 or $31,000 LT AE: NW $3,500 in 2022-23

(8) JORDAN DEO improved immediately with McNair in the bike and this looks like a good spot for him; top call. (6) SERIOUS MOJO tried to come first up as the late pace accelerated noticeably and that wasn’t going to work. I think Jones is more aggressive leaving the gate this time and that should lead to a better result. (4) MIKRON produced a good late kick last time and he should close for another share here. (2) PROCRASTINATOR is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics returning from a break.

Race 12: NW $6,000 L5 or $12,000 L10 AE: Starters for a purse of $13K or less L2 AE: NW 7 or $115K LT

This race likely comes down to class droppers (8) JOELSYY HANOVER and (1) COMMANDING OFFICER. The edge goes to the former who has a two week recency edge on the latter. (2) JOE RICH lacked room early in the stretch last week which likely cost him some placings. I think he gets overbet here though. (6) HES SWIFT had an impossible trip last week and he was still there at the 3/4 pole. He is in the mix tonight. (5) ROLL WITH THE FLOW has been on a roll racing out of town but these are tougher and he likely takes a small share here.