Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 11/8

Top Pick Stats: 216/621 = -$52.40

Best Bets: 15/58 = –$12.20; Spot Plays: 17/58 = +$4.60

Best Bet: SAPPHIRE STEVE (RACE 2)

Spot Play: ROCHESTER FLASH (RACE 7)

Early Pick 5: 1,4,7,8/4/1/5/3,5,6,8

Late Pick 5: 6/3/2,5,6/1,4,5,7/6,7

Race 1: NW $9,350 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $22,500 LAST 8 STARTS.

(4) CAPTAIN FEAR NOT is coming off a sharp victory where he was used a few times. He draws well and should be a factor despite making a slight bump in class; call to repeat. (1) WHATCULOOKIN AT worked out a 2nd over trip in his latest and got picked off by a rival who slipped off the cones late. He is a contender here. (8) HEAD HONCHO has been razor sharp and is one that can put forth a good effort in here yet again; he merits respect, but this is a tougher group. (7) WANNABEABIGSTAR takes a dip in class and will be a major factor if there’s speed to chase. He lacks gate speed, though.

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Race 2: HARVEST SERIES: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS

(4) SAPPHIRE STEVE didn’t hit the board in her latest but was moving very well at the end of her mile. She draws well and hooks a group she should beat in this spot; she’s my clear choice. (2) TRIX ON YOU finished up nicely in his latest and seems to be showing improvement over his last two tries. He can pick up a bigger piece in this spot as an underneath player. (6) MASSEDONIA has hit the board in 6 of his last 7 tries. He draws well and should have every chance to hit the ticket. (1) TENCARATGOLD draws inside and is one that can sit buried for most of the mile and pick up a minor share late.

Race 3: HARVEST SERIES: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS

(1) FIGMENT steps into this Harvest Series off four straight wins. He draws inside and seemingly gets away better as a result and should be tough to fend off late yet again. (6) CENTURY LUCIFER showed good wheels at the end of his mile last time out and has shown steady improvement over his last few tries. He draws well and is one that could benefit from having a tactical edge over the one above. (5) COLD CREEK PANTER was a solid 3rd last time out behind the choice, but still got beat 4+ lengths. He can hit the ticket here again. (4) IM VICTOR has won half of his starts in 2025 and is coming in sharp. This is a tougher spot, however.

Race 4: NW $2,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $5,000 LAST 8 STARTS.

(5) STORMALONG was a non-factor in his latest but missed three weeks going into that start. He take a big dip in class and is the clear choice here. (2) BEN LOOKIN wasn’t a factor in his latest at Western Fair in what was a not so sharp effort. He took a mark of 1:51.4 earlier this year at WEG and can compete with his best. (1) PONDER NO LONGER should like this spot a lot more and can definitely grab a bigger piece with the right trip. (3) BACK TO THE FUTURE was a solid 2nd last time out after working out a perfect trip. He can close for another piece tonight.

Race 5: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $14,300 LAST 8 STARTS

(5) P L OLIVER was aggressively handled in his latest at big odds and was hung out for quite some time. He hung around for 4th despite that and is one who draws even better tonight. I’m expecting another aggressive approach. (6) BEACH TOUR was mighty sharp in winning last time out and that mile stacks him up well in this spot; using. (8) JABBERWOCKY has the class to be competitive in this spot but should’ve been better off the trip he worked out. If he shows up, he can win. (3) JMR SPEAK AWAY has been racing well and has everything working for him in this spot to put forth a good try; using.

Race 6: HARVEST SERIES: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS

(6) THE BEAR A CUDA has been a lot sharper since adding Lasix two starts ago, and with his gait issues on the big track being resolved, he is one that gets clear top billing in this group. (8) BANK ON LUCAS was confidently handled in his latest and scored a 2nd straight victory. He is confident but will have to find a little more vs. the choice. (5) JAYPORT CASH enters this event having missed the board in several straight, but adds Lasix. I’ll take a wait and see approach here. (7) TRIX UP MY SLEEVE was 5th in his latest but will have a chance at hitting the ticket here.

Race 7: WINNERS OF 3 BUT NOT MORE THAN 5 RACES OR $108,500 LIFETIME.

(3) ROCHESTER FLASH was locked in behind rivals in what was a big mile, but found a seam late to get up to be a strong 3rd. He should be brave coming into this outing and I’m expecting a big effort from him this evening; top call. (6) WAFFLE BLUE CHIP was a gate-to-wire winner in his latest in what was a strong showing. He draws well and he should be aggressively handled yet again. (8) OUT OF ICE was conservatively handled from pp10 last time out but finished up with strong pace. I’m expecting a strong showing here, but what trip will he work out? (5) WALLACE HARTLER was a solid 4th in his latest. He draws well and can stick around for a share.

Race 8: HARVEST SERIES: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS

(5) AMBERJACK ships in from out West after winning 3 of his last 4. He enters Menary’s barn off some sharp tries and gets top billing here. (2) MAJOR THREAT is coming off a winning qualifying try. He ships in from out West as well and is intriguing. (6) STRONGMAN HANOVER is coming off strong showing in his latest and could be ready for a more aggressive approach. (3) FIRE CONTROL can close late for a piece.

Race 9: HARVEST SERIES: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS

(5) TITO N CHEDDAR is coming off a solid 3rd and is one that fits this group nicely here. (1) WILLIS WATCHIN was aggressively handled in his latest and put forth a solid showing in spite of the trip. He can pick up a big piece in a wide open race. (7) FREIGHT DAYS AWEEK was a solid 4th at Grand River in his latest. He will pick up a catch driver in this spot and merits respect. (4) BELMONT BLAZER is adding Lasix in this start and adds some intrigue.

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Race 10: FILLIES & MARES, NW $14,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $24,000 LAST 8 STARTS.

(6) AVYANNA is coming off an upset score in her return to Ontario last time out. She is sharp and can handle this step up in competition. (7) ONE LAST WISH wasn’t a factor vs. tougher company but raced really well. She is a main player in this spot and will have every chance. (3) SORCHA SEELSTER takes a dip in class here this evening and draws inside. She’s a threat. (5) WICKED N SINGLE is coming off her first win in 2025 and is one that can hit the ticket underneath.

Race 11: F&M, NW $6,000 L4 STARTS OR NW $12,000 L8 STARTS

(10) LYONS BETTORDAY is coming off a sharp qualifying effort and is one that I’ll give her top billing despite an outside draw. (3) MIKKI SIXX was aggressively handled in her latest and tired. She takes a dip in class and will be aggressive from the word go. (2) GENTRIFY was a solid 3rd in her latest and draws well enough to close for a piece. (9) GORGEOUS PACKAGE finished up nicely in a 3rd place effort last time out. She draws outside and can get a big piece if she’s put in play. (8) CHIEFS DREAM GIRL closed nicely last time out. She draws outside but can be a factor underneath.