Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 1/18

Top Pick Stats: 26 – 83 / $124.20 (-$41.80)

Best Bets: 4 – 8 / $14.80 (-$1.20)

Spot Plays: 2 – 8 / $6.30 (-$9.70)

Best Bet: SID THE KID (8th)

Spot Play: SMOKIN HOT SCOTT (1st)

Early Pick 5: 1,6,7/3,4/2,3/4,7,10/8 = $7.20

Middle Pick 5: 3,4,7/5,8/4/4,8,9/1,2 = $7.20

Late Pick 5: 4/4,8,9/1,2/2,6,9/3,4,5,7 = $14.40

Pick 6: 4,7,10/8/3,4,7/5,8/4/4,8,9 = $10.80

Early Pick 4: 2,3/4,7,10/8/3,4,7 = $3.60

Late Pick 4: 4,8,9/1/2,6,9/3,4,5,7 = $7.20

Race 1: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME **$75,000 Pick 5**

$11K Harrisburg buy (1) SMOKIN HOT SCOTT powered home in his lone qualifier to win with the owner driving, and he showed some late grit outpacing a rival that sat a nice trip and rallied between horses in the closing strides. He gets Cullen for this debut, and I’ll give him top billing. (6) WILLIE B finished 2nd to a rival that has already come back to crush in 1:54 3/5. This colt should be right there vs. these. (7) FOLLY ME never got involved racing in the snow in his debut and he can improve starting from a better post for this second start; price look. (2) HASSELHOF, a distant 2nd to a dominant winner last week, likely takes another slice here.

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Race 2: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $32,500 (OS $45,000) LIFETIME. AE: 4 YEAR OLDS NW $7,200 LAST 5 STARTS

(4) ON TIME DELIVERY shows a stale date but he faced much better than these in his last two starts south of the border. I’ll give him the edge over the other obvious contender (3) GIGITYGIGITYGIGTY, who will likely be the one to catch in this spot. (1) LIKE A GLOVE drops from NW3 and he can improve enough to land a share. (5) ALLSTARWATUACALLIT can get a better trip here. He can be part of the Tri or Super vs. these.

Race 3: FILLIES & MARES, NW $25,000 LAST 5 OR $34,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: NW 7 RACES LIFETIME - Pick 4

(3) SO MUCH MORE raced her eyeballs out first up last week and only got passed very late in the stretch by the rival that she provided perfect cover for. She is razor sharp and she gets top billing here. (2) BLUE PACIFIC finished only a head behind the choice two starts back then came back to dominate lesser last week. She is the obvious alternative. (1) GLENBORO projects to get a good trip racing near the front. She isn’t impossible in this spot, but I prefer to use her underneath. (8) CAVIAR N CRACKERS was a victim of pace and trip last week. Her problem tonight is, she faces the same potential challenges starting from the widest post. She can close for a share, though, if the pace is solid.

Race 4: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $11,850 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES - Pick 6

(4) DIAMOND RYDER is 0 for 15, but I like the late move he made in his last start after missing close to three weeks. He gets post relief tonight, too; top call. (7) MATTS BANK got a start in with the trainer driving now he gets catch driver Henry (who won five here Monday night) in the bike. Sharp improvement is likely tonight. (10) MASTER OF FIRE has been qualified by McNair several times now he gets him in the bike racing for a purse. He is a threat despite drawing widest. (1) LUNAS LEGACY can improve enough in this second start to take a slice.

Race 5: FILLIES & MARES, NW $8,000 LAST 5 OR $22,750 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW 6 RACES LIFETIME. AE: NW $38,000 IN 2024

(8) STONEBRIDGE HALO was the first leader racing in a blizzard, then after two lead changes, she found herself racing 4th behind a tiring pocket sitter. She re-rallied when she found racing room in the lane, and she will be the clear top pick here on the class drop tonight. (1) WILDCAT STAR closed some ground at this level when she had missed six weeks. Hot teamster Henry takes the reins with Macdonald on vacation, and she is in with a shot tonight. (5) CHIEFS DREAM GIRL races better from a stalking position and I think she sits and rallies for a share this time. (9) HES EXPRESS was close at this level last week and she picks up McNair in this spot; price look for the exotics.

Race 6: NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $19,750 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: N/A $2,170 P/S IN 2024-25 - Pick 5

(3) MAJOR FERNCO N looked good motoring up late to score the upset last week. He is sharp and he is sure to offer another good price stepping up in class tonight; call to upset. (4) WHEELS IN FIRE races well at this class but he has only won two of his last 34 starts. He fits well vs. these but he could get over bet; your call. (7) ROCKIN N TALKIN drops, and he should get put into play leaving the gate tonight. He is in with a decent chance; using. (10) STONE CARVER is another dropper that figures to improve but I prefer to use him underneath starting from the widest post.

Race 7: NW $14,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $31,850 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000

(8) SAULSBROOK VICTOR dropped and crushed, and he gets the call to repeat facing similar tonight. (5) CODENAME CIGAR BOX should improve on the drop here, and I think he leaves much faster to get positioned near the front; using. (6) THE GREEK FREAK drops and draws best but he is in tough facing the choice. I’ll use him underneath in this spot. (2) SOUTHSIDE EDDY moves inside, and he should get a better trip racing closer to the front tonight; small share predicted.

Race 8: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 4) RACES OR $51,750 (OS $69,750) LIFETIME - Pick 5

(4) SID THE KID got outsprinted by a better rival in his last start and he looks good to lead this group all the way; top call. (6) STEAMER will likely sit the pocket trip again and he is a good bet to complete the Exacta. (10) FABULOUS FREDDIE has one of the best late kicks in here, but a small slice is likely his ceiling starting from the worst post. (1) PERFECT ANGEL is another that can come on late and land in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 9: NW $4,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $13,750 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: N/A $1,852 P/S IN 2024-25 - Pick 4

(4) DREAMFAIR ARNIE B rallied from last in his most recent start and he was moving well when the wire hit. He should be closer to the front early here leaving from a better post and I’ll take a price stab with him facing some class droppers. (8) SOUTHWIND SAMBUCCA was close last time he raced at this level. I expect to see him sent hard leaving the gate, and he will likely be the one to catch; using. (9) SPEAKER OF PEACE gets a driver change to McClure on the class drop, and he is another that will likely get put into action at the start. I’m not sure if there is any value here with him being the morning line choice, however. (7) NEPTUNE N was bought privately by The Stable and he has been in Canada for several months. I’ll watch him once, but I can see him taking a share in this local debut.

Race 10: PREFERRED

(1) NO CONTROL should be sitting on a win in this third start back and he gets the nod over (2) PACINO HANOVER who shaded him on the wire last week. The latter was required to wait then angle widest in the lane and he made up a lot of ground in a hurry to get the job done. The barn has been running hot and he is hard to discount. (6) POSEIDON SEELSTER won at this level two weeks ago and he will likely be a threat here again racing from close range, but I prefer to use him underneath. (3) JACK PANIC is a hard trier that comes to play every week. He figures to be part of the exotics again.

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Race 11: NW 3 RACES OR $81,500 (OS $100,750) LIFETIME

(2) TRICKY MCWICKY was put into play last week but the trip was too long. He gets the first time McNair angle in this 33rd start and I’ll take a price stab with him in what looks like a wide-open race. (6) BEACH CRUISER crushed NW2 and turned his form around and he is a threat to repeat starting from the best post. (9) R J RINGO draws wide shooting for the threepeat, but he is razor sharp and he’s another possibility for late multi-race tickets. (8) SERGEANT SLAUGHTER finishes 3rd or 4th every start it seems. He is a great one to use on the bottom of Tri and Super bets.

Race 12: NW $25,000 IN 2024-25 (MIN 10 STARTS) OR NOT AVERAGING $1,545 PER START IN 2024-25 (MIN 10 STARTS)

(3) WIND BLOWN draws perfectly here in quest of a threepeat and he gets the nod to get that job done. (5) BATTERUP HANOVER shows a winning 1:51 3/5 mile three starts back and he should be dangerous with McNair taking the reins tonight. (7) BROOKDALE JOHNNY was a winner with J Mac in the bike in his third start racing out of the Beaton barn. He is a threat to repeat here with Henry in the bike. (4) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER raced much better last week than he did in his two previous starts, and he should be a late threat here; using. (1) BEACHIN LINDY crushed as easier field now he draws the rail facing tougher; small share predicted.