Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 11/29

Top Pick Stats: 216/621 = -$52.40

Best Bets: 15/58 = –$12.20; Spot Plays: 17/58 = +$4.60

Best Bet: WHATCHULOOKIN AT (RACE 5)

Spot Play: AXIAL (RACE 4)

Early Pick 5: 2,3,6,10/4,5,6,7/7/2/6

Late Pick 5: 4/3,7,8/2,6,8/1/1,3,5

Race 1: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME.

(2) MY GIRL FRIDAY was a first-over winner in her career debut to narrowly hang on for the score. She paced a :55 back half in the process and is one I’ll side with here despite the move up in class. (10) KIKI DEE HANOVER has been a runner up to a sharp rival in her last two tries. She draws outside but will be put in play and is arguably the one to beat. (6) LAYDEE FREIGHT hasn’t been much of a factor as of late. The lack of gate speed and the fact she runs in has cost her bigger shares, but this is undoubtedly a good spot for her to be competitive; using. (3) SUNNYS GIRL is one I thought raced well in her latest despite being used hard early. She’s getting better and is also one I’ll use in the p5.

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Race 2: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $11,000 LIFETIME.

(7) STAY HUMBLE was used a couple of times from an outside draw and as moving forward at the wire. He can take another step forward here and has an improved post. He’s Trevor’s choice as well. (5) JIMS RISING SON is one I liked last week but he was unable to get involved. He looked like he was on a line but is not one I’d be willing to leave off multi-leg tickets if he works out a good trip. (6) WINDSUN DUKE is shipping in from a pair of victories at Rideau. He draws well and will likely be put in play, giving him a chance. (4) FIRE CONTROL hasn’t been much of a factor as of late but has failed to work out favourable trips. He’s tricky to handle, but he’s got speed. James MacDonald will be aboard for the first time and I’m curious to see if he can navigate a good trip here.

Race 3: NW $9,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $18,750 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000.

(7) BLUE HUNT plummets in class and should be able to take this group down comfortably, going gate to wire. (1) LAMBORGHINI LOU is coming off a solid effort and takes a drop in class. He will likely be racing for place. (3) JACK PANIC has been put in great spots as of late and is sticking around for good pieces; I’d expect the same here. (6) HEAD HONCHO draws well and should be sitting on another good effort; using underneath.

Race 4: NW 2 RACES OR $15,000 (ON SIRED $21,000) LIFETIME.

(2) AXIAL has been very sharp over his last two efforts. He will be reunited with Doug McNair who guided him to a maiden-breaking score and this 3YO gelding should be sitting on a big effort this evening. (5) LEFT HAND LOU rallied nicely to be 3rd in his most recent in his first start for his new connections. He can build off that effort and pick up another good piece. (3) DOCS EARNEST rallied nicely late in the mile despite sitting behind some non-advancing cover. He can rally for a share. (6) LYONS DUKEY has the ability to be a main contender here, so long as he can stay pacing cleanly throughout. I’ll use him for a piece.

Race 5: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $13,000 LAST 8 STARTS.

(6) WHATCHULOOKIN AT was never a factor from pp10 in his most recent. He has the class and the speed, and he draws much better and I’ll give him top honors. (8) MYULTIMATE SNOWY A made an attempt to surge to the front in the early stages of the mile last time out and got parked the mile. He tired, understandably so, and can bounce back here this evening with a cleaner trip. James MacDonald is aboard. (7) LOUS WORLD comes off an uncharacteristic effort in his latest. He can compete in here if he’s at his best and is one that merits respect. (6) CONTROL THE POWER is racing well and is one that can pick up a share.

Race 6: 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(4) BARBADIAN BREEZE is one that I loved going into his most recent effort but that ended up being a poor performance. He comes into this start having missed close to one month and adds Lasix, and is one that I will side with as a bounce back candidate. I’ll give him another chance. (7) BAJAN FIREFLY is getting set to make his career debut off a pair of good looking qualifying efforts. He’s a top contender in this spot in my books if he gets involved. (8) COLD CREEK NACHO is coming off an even qualifying effort and will make his first start for new trainer Daniel Walker. He’s racing for a hot barn and is worth a look. (2) SUNET LOO is coming off a pair of runner-up efforts and should be able to grab a piece.

Race 7: NW $12,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $30,500 LAST 8 STARTS.

(7) DUBLIN DASHER will plummet in class in this spot and should have every chance to take advantage of this spot; top call. (3) COLD CREEK QUESO raced well in defeat in his most recent, but had too much work to do and ran out of racetrack. He faces a slew of class droppers but is still sharp enough to compete. (8) WRITE ME A ROSE exits a sharp qualifying score and should be able to step up in his first pari-mutuel start since September and put forth a competitive effort. (5) PACINO HANOVER is another class dropper who should be able to pick up a big share this evening.

Race 8: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $55,000 (OS $72,250) LIFETIME.

(2) CAPTAIN HURLEY was up against it the moment the post position draws came out. He rallied nicely to be 4th in that contest and should appreciate the post relief here. (8) BLUE BAR rallied nicely to be 3rd in his latest in what was his best effort in quite some time. He can build off that effort and merits respect here. (6) MAGICAL BET was aggressively handled in his latest in what was his first start in three weeks. He draws well and should be better from a fitness standpoint here. (3) HASSELHOFF is coming off a sharp, 5th place effort and is one I’d use underneath in exotics.

Race 9: OPEN

(1) BRUE HANOVER is one I played against in his first start back since August. He was moving very well in a 4th place effort and should be tough to beat here with a start under his belt; top call. (2) TAURASI is one I liked as a winner in his first since October, and he delivered at a good price. He can continue to get stronger, but I will use him underneath. (6) REMEMBER THE ALAMO draws well and will be put in play. He merits respect but is likely racing for a share here. (5) CAPTAIN FEAR NOT can close for a share.

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Race 10: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000.

(1) SHANES DREAM was pacing very well in between horses in her most recent effort. She looks like she’s ready for a bigger effort here and is one I’ll side with in a competitive spot. (3) STEAMBOAT SPRINGS worked out a good trip and tired to be 5th in his most recent. He’s capable vs. this group and is one I’ll use in multis. (5) EARLY ACTION has rallied nicely over his last two tries and will race for Vic Puddy off the claim. He’s sharp and one I’ll also include in multis. (7) LARRY KARR has hit the board in 4 of his last 6 and is one I’ll include underneath.

Race 11: NW $3,750 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $5000 LAST 8 STARTS.

(4) STONE CARVER worked out a nice trip in his latest but was solid to be 3rd. He should be sharper with a tightener under his belt and can take a step forward here; top call. (10) DRINKIN BUDDY drops down in class and finds himself in a better spot. He draws outside, which will be his only challenge but he’s a main player here. (5) BET THE BB draws the middle of the gate and should be able to stick around for a piece. (1) SAUBLE ACE raced well to be 5th and can pick up a good share with a trip. (2) MIKI RAY ships in from the US and will not race for new connections. He is one I’ll take a wait and see approach and use underneath.