Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 11/21

Meet Stats: 328 - 1064 / $1882.90 (-$267.10)
Best Bets: 52 – 95 / $169.60 (-$21.40)
Spot Plays: 17 - 97 / $137.40 (-$55.20)
Best Bet: ROSE RUN VICTORY (8TH)
Spot Play: SHEER ENERGY (6TH)
Early Pick 5: 1,5,8/2,7/6,7,9/2/2,9,10 = $10.80
Late Pick 5: 2,5,7/2,3,6/4/7/2,3,6 = $5.40
Early Pick 4: 2/2,9,10/2,5,7/2,5,6 = $27
Late Pick 4: 7/2,5,6/3,5,7/3,5 = $18

Race 1: 5YO and Younger NW5 or $75,000 **GTD $100,000 Pick 5**

(1) ECLAT DE RIRE was in a tough spot trying to close off excess cover into a 54 3/5 back 1/2 last week. He can leave better here and get put into this race and he gets the nod. (5) REVOLT exits the same race and he is another who should be more aggressive in this spot which should be easier; using. (8) GRAND POOBAH could blast here then get covered up with a nice pocket trip. He has upset potential. (2) SIDDHARTHA should be good for a small share in this spot.

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Race 2: HARVEST SERIES 1ST LEG ONTARIO SIRED 3YO FILLIES

(2) INTENSE JUSTICE sticks out here on class and speed and she will be singled on most Pick 5 tickets. (7) SCORCHED ROMANCE is winless in 2020 and she has had some gait issues, but she is the most likely upsetter in this race if the choice falters. (1) BRA IN THE WIND is worth a look for the exotics picking up Macdonald to drive in this spot.

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Race 3: 5YO and Younger NW3 or $57,500 LT

Many of the contenders in this race exit Race 1 on November 14th which featured a wildly-contested pace and a blanket finish. Of those, I'll side with (9) LEADERORTHEDANCE, who paced a huge mile uncovered on the rim to just miss. (7) ANETO was challenged every stride last week and he eventually backed up. It wouldn't surprise me if the pace is much softer this time as many of the horses involved in the destructive dueling last week look for easier trips tonight and that would benefit this gelding; using. (6) WHITECOOKIE was right there in the blanket finish and he is in with a shot here. (4) REAGAN BLUE CHIP was also in that photo, but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot.

Race 4: HARVEST SERIES 1ST LEG ONTARIO SIRED 3YO FILLIES

This looks like a great spot for (2) LYONS TILT HANOVER and maybe this will be the time where she gets more aggressive early; top call. (4) NEED UR OPINION also fits well in this spot but she has missed more than five weeks so I'd need a price. (1) RUBY ON RAILS has shown talent and ability from the start but being another one that has missed some time, she is likely to be closing for a small share here. (5) SMILE BY THE BEACH comes off a sharp win and she likely has a conditioning edge on some of these; consider for the exotics.

Race 5: NW $5,000 L5 or $10,000 L10

(2) AMERICAN HUSTLE wasn't far back last time racing two levels higher despite starting in the second tier and getting a less than ideal trip. He should be tough in here. (9) YACHT SEELSTER drops again after almost getting the job done one level higher and he is a contender here despite drawing widest. (10) AMERICAN VIRGIN was game in defeat last week and he could upset here if he finds a live helmet to follow. (1) THE DOWNTOWN BUS never got untracked last week. I can see him leaving for position in the top five and working his way into the Super here.

Race 6: HARVEST SERIES 1ST LEG ONTARIO SIRED 3YO FILLIES - Pick 5

(5) SHEER ENERGY got a needed tightener for this in last week after missing a month and Roy got a test drive. She should be much sharper here and driven with more aggression; top call. (7) JULA SHES MAGIC is an obvious contender coming off a close 2nd in a $140K stake but she rarely leaves quickly and she could get overbet in this spot; your call. (2) SHESWILDNFREE is worth a look on the barn and driver changes alone here. (1) MAGIC WANDA should get a good trip here and she can tag along for a share.

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Race 7: NW $11,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 or NW 6LT

(3) HIDDEN DELIGHT fires home quickly every week but he is often out of position. From an inside post on the class drop he should be leaving and that can make the difference here. He gets the nod. (6) FIXED IDEA, who gets a barn and driver change here, was a winner last time he raced this low and he is capable if he gets put into the race. (2) BETTOR B GOING brings a solid effort every week and he can beat these if he gets a trip. (1) AWESOMENESS should be able to work out a trip and land a share in this spot.

Race 8: HARVEST SERIES 1ST LEG ONTARIO SIRED 3YO FILLIES

(4) ROSE RUN VICTORY stands out in this spot and she is a multi-race single for me in a spot where she should dominate. (1) POTO HANOVER’s first race back off a break was decent and she could provide some Exacta value here. (6) PATRICIA MAE rarely misses finishing in the Super and she should get good position at the start here so I count on her keeping that streak rolling. (3) NO WHERE TO HIDE’s race two starts back puts her in the exotics mix as she should rebound here with a better effort.

Race 9: HARVEST SERIES 1ST LEG ONTARIO SIRED 3YO FILLIES - Pick 4

(7) LMC BUMBLE BEE left, took a shuffle, waited for room while loaded, then exploded to win the $141K SBOA final. She stands out here and she should wire these. (6) TITANIC KATE has improving form and a good chance to round out this Exacta. (5) LETSTAKETOTHESKY frequently rounds out the Tri and in this seven-horse field she has a good chance to land right there again. (3) WHEELY TWICKY has improved as of late and she can enter contention for a spot in the Super here.

Race 10: NW $19,000 L5 or $26,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $45,000 or NE $155,000 LT

(2) TIEMPO HANOVER ships east with a tremendous 2020 record and many wins in the top class at Century Downs and he moves into the top barn here. There is no secret to his strategy. He will be the one to catch here. (6) OUTLAW ACEOFSPADES has been beaten by the same hot horse in two straight but he has been game in defeat and he has a big shot in here. (5) FOOT SOLDIER produced a strong effort to win from post 9 last week and he isn't out of the question here in a race where he should offer a good price. (7) BETTORBUCKLEUP raced well all summer but he has missed more than five weeks and this is no easy spot; small share predicted.

Race 11: HARVEST SERIES 1ST LEG ONTARIO SIRED 3YO FILLIES

(5) BIG MYRTLE was overtaken at the 1/2 last week then the pace accelerated immediately, leaving her little chance to rally. She looks best in here and she gets the nod over (3) CLASSYLANEPRECIOUS, who comes off a sharp win here last week and is improving. (7) BAYWATCHING's most recent effort was a bit better and she has upset potential if she can avoid being first up this time. (4) GOLDEN LEADER has been beating up on easier in London. She can take a share here.

Race 12: NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10

(3) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN drops, gets a good post, and likely pops in this spot. Expect an aggressive Harris steer. (5) ROYAL RENEGADE draws well for the first time since late October which should mean he is better positioned early and that gives him a chance tonight; using. (1) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP also draws better after getting two straight 10-holes and he should be good for a share in this spot. (6) MONGOLIAN HERO N flew late last week to just miss. I see him coming on late to finish in the bottom of the Super here. (2) SPORTSLINE comes off two failed efforts at Flamboro but he is a good one to use in the High-5 because he will likely leave for position then take a following trip to get a share.