Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 11/18

Top Pick Stats: 523 - 1565 / $2,753.20 (-$376.80)

Best Bets: 82 - 146 / $293.80 (+$1.80)

Spot Plays: 25 - 149 / $155.00 (-$143.00)

Best Bet: HANGOVER HILL (5TH)

Spot Play: CALL ME IT (7TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,4/1,2/4,6/2,3,6,9/8 = $6.40

Late Pick 5: 2,4/2,3,7,9/1,5/3,7/2,9 = $12.80

Early Pick 4: 2,3,6,9/8/2,4/2,3,7,9 = $6.40

Late Pick 4: 1,5/3,7/2,9/4,6 = $3.20

Race 1: HARVEST SERIES Ont. Sired 3YO Colts and Geldings NW $30,000 in 2023 as of 9/30/2023 Leg 2 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

I liked the way (1) CENTURY JAGUAR re-rallied from third after a rival sprinted clear on the front last week. He is improving and I’ll stick with him here. (4) NOTHINGBUTADREAMER shoots for a fifth straight win and he is the obvious horse to beat but he will offer another short price. (5) LOOKSLIKAGOODFELLA took too long to get to the front then he was ambushed immediately by the eventual winner. He can be closer here if he sits and rallies as expected. (7) IM ABOVE AVERAGE should be good for a slice in this short field.

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Race 2: HARVEST SERIES Ont. Sired 3YO Colts and Geldings NW $30,000 in 2023 as of 9/30/2023 Leg 2

(2) FULL HORSE gets the call to repeat after grinding out a Leg 1 win and kicking in 27-flat despite racing first-over. (1) BAR DOWN JIM improved as expected and fell just short. He is the other one that I’ll use in the early Pick 5. (7) CHEDDAR DUHARAS motored home in 26-flat to just miss to the choice but he will likely be a victim of pace and trip here in a spot where he is almost sure to get over bet. I’ll fade him. (6) SANS SOUCI takes frequent shares and he is a good one to use on the bottom of Tri and Super bets.

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Race 3: Winners of 4 but not more than 7 or $87,000 LT

(6) MAMBA was part of a very fast early pace last week, and he still came on late to win. He should be very tough to beat if he repeats that effort here. (4) DUPREE HANOVER raced well when 3rd to the choice considering that he missed close to six weeks between starts. He should be sharper tonight and he figures to be the main threat here. (1) STOP THE SHOOTIN should pass horses late again but he will likely be too late to beat both of the top two choices. (5) MAGICAL ARTHUR battled with the choice early and stuck around for a share. He should be in the exotics mix again.

Race 4: NW $20,000 L5 - Pick 4

(9) FUNATTHEBEACH N drops and likely pops in this spot facing much easier. (3) BEYOND BETTER might get a setup here with at least three horses that seem to need to lead. He could add some value to the early multis. (2) NAUTICAL HANOVER will be passing many of these late but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot. (6) LAWLESS SHADOW will likely look to lead all the way and stick around for another small share.

Race 5: 2YO and 3YO Colts and Geldings NW2 or $16,500 LT

(8) HANGOVER HILL just jogged from post 10 and he figures to be tough to beat despite stepping up one level here. A threepeat looms. (9) GATOR HANOVER went way too fast early considering he hadn’t raced since mid August. He will likely get a better trip here and be much closer at the wire. (1) STRAPPER HANOVER raced decently from a wide post last week and he should be part of this Tri. (10) BRUDON should go better here but a small share is likely his ceiling starting from the widest post.

Race 6: HARVEST SERIES Ont. Sired 3YO Colts and Geldings NW $30,000 in 2023 as of 9/30/2023 Leg 2 - Pick 5

(2) STONEBRIDGE BOMBER made a huge third 1/4 move to take a stranglehold on the race last week in Leg 1 and I’ll call him to repeat despite McNair opting for (4) RICARDO over him. The latter came close to knocking off a big chalk and he is the obvious threat. (5) CACTUSTOTHECLOUDS hasn’t missed the top three in several weeks and he should continue that streak here. (1) CONNOR will likely close for a share if he stays flat.

Race 7: 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

(7) CALL ME IT raced great at huge odds last week, but fell short to a better rival. Off that much improved effort, I’ll give him the nod here. (9) URIEL BLUE CHIP fired a 27 2/5 kicker but he got going too late. The wide post might be better than the rail he drew last week. He figures to be one of the main contenders tonight. (2) CONTROL THE GOLD jogged but he took over the lead in a cheap opening 1/2 that likely won’t be repeated here. He is a contender, but he may get over bet. (3) THATLL BE TIGER should be part of the exotics moving off post 10 tonight.

Race 8: HARVEST SERIES Ont. Sired 3YO Colts and Geldings NW $30,000 in 2023 as of 9/30/2023 Leg 2 - Pick 4

(1) ARIZONA JACKSON couldn’t seal the deal as chalk in Leg 1 but there is no Full Horse in here opposing him, so he gets top call. (5) THE MOMENT AROSE is the main rival to the choice on paper and if he is sharp enough coming off the vet scratch, he should be right there tonight. (8) D A JIMINY CRICKET wasn’t far behind the choice last week. He is worth a look for the exotics here. (6) FOUT will likely show speed again and stick around for a share.

Race 9: PREFERRED

I won’t take much of an issue with last week’s loss by (3) EMMETTS BUDDY. It’s hard to fight every battle every week at this level and he will likely get involved earlier tonight starting from a better post. I think he rebounds here at what should be a good price. (7) POSEIDON SEELSTER got a great trip and drive to score the upset at this level last week and he was well bet considering he was stepping up off a loss. He is sharp and dangerous. (1) BEE TWO BEE is one dimensional and the rail is probably better for him considering he wants to fire right to the front. He should go better in this spot. (8) ROLL EM is an interesting shipper who doesn’t lack for speed. He has missed a month and will likely look to sit and rally this time.

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Race 10: NW $8,000 L5 AE: OPT CLM $45,000

(9) I AMA ROCKET shoots for a fifth straight win racing off the Moreau claim tonight and he gets the leading driver who chose him over two others. He couldn’t be much sharper, and he should be the one to beat despite facing tougher tonight. (2) BACKSTREET GAMBLER got a tightener in now he drops to a level where he figures to be right there if he produces close to his best; using. (7) RESPECT OUR FLAG is in great form and he should close for another good share vs. these. (5) WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH was part of a wild backstretch battle last week and he tried to fire past two battling leaders by moving three-wide but he didn’t have the zip to do it. A small share is likely for him here.

Race 11: 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $45,000 LT AE: 3YO 4YO and 5YO CLM $50,000

This race features a mandatory High-5 payout and in a pool that has a carryover of more than $200,000.

There are two horses in here that come in off strong performances, and I could see either of them topping this High-5. (4) ACAPULCO SUNBURN paced a strong back 1/2 from a very tough spot when he failed to convert as the 1 to 2 chalk. Macdonald sticks with him, and I think he finds him a better trip this week. (6) STORMALONG made two moves and looked good in the stretch, but one airborne rival steamrolled past them all. He can be even sharper here in this second start back. (3) COME ON ARTIE also comes in off a strong win, but he got a good setup, and he faces tougher now. I will use him in all the underneath positions of this High-5. (7) KAPTAIN KARLOS will likely blast for position leaving the gate and he should get a trip and land a share. (2) BEACH TOUR beat the choice, but he got a great trip on the engine that night. I think he gets outsprinted by at least a couple of these leaving the gate, and I see him as a fringe player this time.

Others to consider: (1) TALK RACY TO ME will probably land in mid pack early and I can see him sneaking into the High-5. (10) SUN CHIP rarely misses a check and while post 10 is extra tough in a 12-horse field, he will offer a huge price that makes him worth using in the bottom slots of the ticket. (12) BOOZER is in great form but I am not a fan of the 12-hole in these races. I will play against him in the top four slots.

My ticket: 4,6/3,4,6,7/2,3,4,6,7/1,2,3,4,6,7,10/ALL = $115.20