Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 11/11

Top Pick Stats: 527 - 1563 / $2,813.10 (-$312.90)

Best Bets: 82 - 149 / $293.10 (-$4.90)

Spot Plays: 25 - 149 / $155.00 (-$143.00)

Best Bet: WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH (5TH)

Spot Play: CENTURY JAGUAR (3RD)

Early Pick 5: 1,2,4,6/6,7/1,7/1,6/7 = $6.40

Late Pick 5: 3,7,10/3,4/2,3,7/8,9/2,8,9 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 1,6/7/3,7,10/3,4 = $2.40

Late Pick 4: 8,9/2,8,9/6,7/1,6 = $4.80

Race 1: HARVEST SERIES Ont. Sired 3YO Colts and Geldings NW $30,000 in 2023 as of 9/30/2023 Leg 1**Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(6) RICARDO tuned up for this series with a decisive NW2 win last week and he is one of several that can win this competitive opening leg of the Pick 5. I'm not sure that (4) NOTHINGBUTADREAMER beat much in the Popup series, but he crushed every leg, and his sharp form should be respected. (1) IM ABOVE AVERAGE got Roy in the bike last time and he improved immediately. I could see him vaulting past the leaders tonight if there is any mid-race battling. (2) CACTUSTOTHECLOUDS made a big recovery after breaking last week. He is another in with a chance here.

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Race 2: HARVEST SERIES Ont. Sired 3YO Colts and Geldings NW $30,000 in 2023 as of 9/30/2023 Leg 1

(7) DOWS UP raced well in the Popup series, and he stacks up well vs. this group; top call. (6) BAR DOWN JIM has been showing recent signs of improvement. I could see him flying late to win here if the late pace slows. (2) HOWMAC VICTOR ships in from Ottawa in good form and he should be in the exotics mix here. (1) SANS SOUCI should be passing some rivals late again. He’s a good one for the bottom of the exotics.

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Race 3: HARVEST SERIES Ont. Sired 3YO Colts and Geldings NW $30,000 in 2023 as of 9/30/2023 Leg 1

(7) CENTURY JAGUAR was raced conservatively last week after making several moves to beat NW2 in his previous start. I think he gets aggressive again tonight and he gets top billing here. (1) LOOKSLIKAGOODFELLA was first up chasing a 1 to 5 shot that was fleeing the scene on Monday night. That start should have him perfectly primed for a big effort here; using. (2) LOOKS LIKE MAGIC has a knack for finishing 3rd so that’s where I’ll use him here. (8) TEMPLETON will likely use his gate speed to get position here and then ride a trip to a share.

Race 4: 5YO and younger NW2 or $37,750 - Pick 4

(1) URIEL BLUE CHIP looked terrific in his past two starts locking up the Pop Up Series win, and he should be hard to beat in this NW2 spot. (6) CONTROL THE GOLD comes in off a solid first up effort but that loss ran his 2023 record to 0 for 13. Your call, but I wouldn’t take a short price here. (3) HIGH VOLTAGE DEO closed a big gap last week to get 2nd behind a big chalk and he should be passing rivals late here, too. I’ll use him underneath. (2) BROOKDALE JOHNNY will likely finish on the edges here again. He is a good one to use underneath.

Race 5: NW $8,000 L5 or $19,850 L10

This is a very low level for (7) WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH, who faced the best aged pacers on the continent on several occasions. He should drop and pop here. (4) DRAGON ENERGY is the other dropper in the field, and he gets post relief tonight, too. He can wake up in this spot; Exacta factor. (1) LEGION SEELSTER raced better last week when 2nd to a chalky class dropper. He should be part of the exotics in this spot. (3) ROCKME ROLLME will likely flash speed again and stick around for a spot in the Super.

Race 6: HARVEST SERIES Ont. Sired 3YO Colts and Geldings NW $30,000 in 2023 as of 9/30/2023 Leg 1 - Pick 5

(3) FULL HORSE raced well in his first start back and that should set him up well for this series; top call. (10) THE MOMENT AROSE took two legs of the Popup series then was in a tough spot trying to close while the pace accelerated in the final. He is in with a good chance here despite drawing widest. (7) FOUT goes for Moreau/Macdonald following a decent effort in a NW3 down south. The tote board may provide clues with this one. (9) ARIZONA JACKSON has done little wrong to date, and he has shown the speed to overcome this wide draw. He is facing tougher here, but he might be up to it.

Race 7: NW $4,000 L5 or NW $9,700 L8 AE: NW $20,500 in 2023

The two big class droppers in this field, (4) JABBERWOCKY and (3) THE GREEK FREAK, will likely battle it out here. I’ll give the nod to the former, who will probably look to lead all the way in this spot. (5) LYONS KING fired a big kicker last week and he should be in the exotics mix here, likely laying closer to the front this time. (6) BETTORBEFLYIN moves from the worst post to the best one and that should translate into a share here.

Race 8: Winners or 4 but not more than 7 or $87,000 LT AE: 3YO 4YO and 5YO CLM $60,000

(3) DUPREE HANOVER ships north on a big roll having won six straight after starting his career 0 for 11. Moving to the leading trainer’s barn won’t hurt and he gets top billing. (2) STOP THE SHOOTIN sat a trip and finished well for 2nd in a fast mile, and I could see him tripping out here and sneaking past the leader late; using. (7) WOODMERE FENN flew late to get the job done last week and his wicked kick makes him a threat to repeat here. (9) MAMBA is another sharp gelding that ships north and into Moreau’s barn. Starting from the widest post in a competitive field, I’ll use him underneath.

Race 9: PREFERRED - Pick 4

(8) EMMETTS BUDDY draws wide tonight but he is so good right now that it might not matter; top call. (9) BEE TWO BEE shipped west, missed four weeks, then paced a 1:50 flat winning mile. He is obviously a big threat, and the outside post should be no issue for him. (7) AMERICAN HISTORY has developed an effective deep closing style with Spence in the bike and he doesn’t get bet much. I see him closing for a slice in this spot where the top two choices will likely prove best. (1) MATAI LOUIS N looked dangerous in early stretch last week and he should be in the mix here again.

Race 10: 5YO and younger NW2 or $37,750

(9) MIKRON raced tough in defeat to a winner who was taking a third straight victory in London on Monday night. He won’t get bet here from the 9-hole. I’ll take a swing for the fences with him. (8) GATOR HANOVER qualified well after shipping north and he is an obvious threat tonight; using. (2) COME ON ARTIE, left, took a shuffle then re-rallied. He is in with a chance here, too. (10) BACK TO THE FUTURE will likely have to work too hard from out there. I’ll use him underneath in this spot.

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Race 11: NW $15,500 L5 or $30,300 L10 AE: OPT CLM $65,000

(7) MOMAS SON BYRNE drops following a solid speed try vs. better and he has a good chance to lead all the way here. (6) NAUTICAL HANOVER edged the choice right on the wire and he figures to be right there at this level; using. (5) BEYOND BETTER went a big parked out trip in a fast mile. He is capable of upsetting here with the right trip. Consider him for late multi-race tickets. (8) SAULSBROOK VICTOR dropped and popped now he faces tougher. I’ll use him underneath here.

Race 12: 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $45,000 LT AE: 3YO 4YO and 5YO CLM $50,000

(6) ACAPULCO SUNBURN dropped and popped, and he fits well here as he looks to double up; call to repeat. (1) KAPTAIN KARLOS wasn’t as good last week as he was two starts back but perhaps the stale date contributed. He returns to a 7-day rotation now and he should be a threat. (9) BOOZER is another that dropped and popped. He figures to be a fringe player stepping back up and moving to a wide post. (2) BEACH TOUR is racing decently for Henry. He should be part of the exotics again. (7) TALK RACY TO ME crushed an easier field last week. A small slice is likely his ceiling here.