Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 1/11

Top Pick Stats: 14 - 43 / $53.40 (-$32.60)

Best Bets: 3 - 4 / $9.10 (+1.10)

Spot Plays: 1 - 4 / $2.80 (-$5.20)

Best Bet: SAULSBROOK VICTOR (6TH)

Spot Play: SHOOT THE WHISKEY (2ND)

Early Pick 5: 3,4,9/3,5/1,4,5/7,8/6,7,8 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 7/2,6/1,3,6/3,4/6,8 = $4.80

Pick 6: 7,8/6,7,8/7/2,6/1,3,6/3,4 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 1,4,5/7,8/6,7,8/7 = $3.60

Late Pick 4: 1,3,6/3,4/6,8/2,3,4 = $7.20

Race 1: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 4) RACES OR $51,750 (OS $85,000) LIFETIME **$75,000 Pick 5**

(3) FABULOUS FREDDIE was expected to do well last week after finishing fast two starts back but he blew up at the start. I’ll stick with him facing similar tonight. (4) STEAMER raced well on the engine last week, but he couldn’t repel the strong first-over challenge of (9) OH BROTHER. Both are contenders here but it’s notable that the latter could do no better than finish 3rd starting from posts 7 and 8 in December. I don’t love the rail post for (1) R PEAKY BLINDERS, but I can see him closing to take a small share again,

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES, NW $8,000 LAST 5 OR $15,750 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: N/A $2,325 PER START IN 2024. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000

(5) SHOOT THE WHISKEY provided cover for the winner last week and she looks good in this spot. I think Cullen gets aggressive early in this short field leaving from one of the best posts. I can see her leading all the way. (3) CHIEFS DREAM GIRL was racing well when scratched due to injury on 1/3, but she fires right back so I’ll assume that all is well. She is the other one that I’ll use in the Pick 5. (6) HES EXPRESS finished only 1 ¼ lengths behind the choice last week. She can close for another share here. (1) WILDCAT STAR gets the leading driver, but her stale date shows that she has missed more than a month’s action. I’ll use her on the bottom tonight.

Race 3: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $38,500 LIFETIME - Pick 4

Unbeaten (1) HOLLYWOOD DEO has shown he can take air and that he has a nose for the wire, and he gets the call to keep his record perfect tonight. (4) PURELY WICKED has been right there in four of his five starts since returning from a break and he comes off a nice first up win last week. He should be the main threat to the choice. J Mac interestingly jumps off The Stable horse (#8) and goes to (5) BEACH CRUISER and that makes him worth using in the Pick 5. (3) BETTOR BE EARLY is capable of better than he showed last week, and he gets a driver upgrade to McNair tonight; price look for the exotics.

Race 4: NW $2,500 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $8,350 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: NOT AVERAGING $900 PER START IN 2024-25 (MIN 10 STARTS) - Pick 6

(7) HEAD HONCHO fired a 27 1/5 kicker in his return race and I think he gets more aggressively handled now with that race under his belt; top call. (8) MOMAS SON BYRNE made an unsuccessful move towards the front on the backside last week and he gets to drop again. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t try to blast to the front this week. He is the one to fear. (2) CONTROL HEAVEN raced much better when finishing 2nd to the favorite last time. He is another in with a shot. (6) RILKOFF showed uncharacteristic gate speed last week which can be a good sign. He should be in the exotics mix again.

Race 5: NW $4,000 LAST 5 OR $10,500 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: NW $44,000 OR N/A $1,675 P/S IN 2024-25 (MIN 15 STARTS)

(6) HF PANS SHADOW gets both post and class relief tonight and I’ll take a price stab with him in a race with several options. (7) KOLBY TWO STEP raced well from post 10 last week now he draws better. I can see him blasting off the gate and he does his best work racing close to the front; using. (8) TYGA HANOVER fits better here and he is another to consider for multi-race tickets, (5) HESINCONTROL drops, and he can be part of the exotics again facing easier tonight. Look for him late.

Race 6: NW $16,250 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. AE: NW $80,000 IN 2024-25. AE: STARTERS FOR PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS LAST 2 STARTS - Pick 5

(7) SAULSBROOK VICTOR is supposed to beat these on the class drop and I expect him to get sent to the front where he will control the race from there. (8) LIVINTHEBEACHLIFE is the other one dropping from the top class, and he can be an Exacta factor racing from close range tonight. (6) HP LIS SHADOW raced tough in defeat last time, but that was on 12/14 and this is a tough spot to be racing off a stale date; using underneath. (1) THE LIGHT SPEED got a race over the track, and he now moves inside. I can see him sneaking into the exotics at a price tonight.

Race 7: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $87,250 (OS $106,750) LIFETIME

(6) BET THE BB comes in off two brave front-end wins and he draws best here. A threepeat looms. (2) TRICKY MCWICKY showed little in his return race, but he gets a much better post here and a key driver change. He is worth using at a price. (5) BETTHEBEACH YANKEE tripped out and he couldn’t get past the choice. I see him taking another slice here. (7) SERGEANT SLAUGHTER finished 3rd or 4th in every start it seems. He is a good one to use on the bottom of the exotics.

Race 8: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW $15,000 (ON SIRED $22,000) LIFETIME. AE: 4 YR OLDS NOT AVERAGING $1,200 PER START IN 2024-25 - Pick 4

(6) BLAZING CRUISER has improved in every start, and he looked good breaking his maiden last week; call to repeat. (1) BETTERDEALMEIN was another good looking maiden breaker last week and he gets Cullen back now. He will probably be the one to fend off late; using. (3) GRAVITATIONAL comes out of some tough races and he could be much closer vs. these. Drury will probably look to get him positioned near the front early; price look for the multis. (4) SPINDOCTOR HANOVER hasn’t missed the top four since shipping west from the Maritimes and he can be part of the exotics again here.

Race 9: PREFERRED

(3) NO CONTROL no doubt needed last week’s start to stretch his legs and I’ll stick with him here getting the leading driver in the bike. (4) WHATCHULOOKIN AT should be sharper tonight returning to a 7-day rotation. He will likely be the one to beat and he is the other one that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. (6) JACK PANIC is a horse that tries hard every week, and he figures to hit the board in this short field. (2) PACINO HANOVER parlayed a great trip into a 2nd place finish at this level last week. He is obviously capable of bettering this placing with a good trip.

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Race 10: NW $18,000 IN 2024-25 (MIN 10 STARTS) OR NOT AVERAGING $1,500 PER START IN 2024-25 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: NW $9,500 LAST 10 STARTS

(8) TORONTO tried for the front last week, and it backfired. He will likely take back tonight, but he fits well here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he rallies past them all at a good price like he did two starts back. (6) WIND BLOWN was much sharper in his second start here, winning on the quick return. He should be the one to beat starting from the best post. (5) HOWMAC MAXIMUS has raced well in every local start, and he should be part of the exotics again racing from close range. (3) PIPEWRENCH CHARLIE gets off post 10 and he should be able to close for a share in this spot.

Race 11: NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $17,500 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW $54,750 IN 2024-25 (MIN 15 STARTS)

(2) CODE CRACKER drops to a good spot and gets post relief, too. He should have plenty of energy after taking a tour of the track from post 10 vs. better last week. He gets the nod. (4) MYULTIMATE SNOWY A is the other dropper that should be tough in here. He gets the leading drive back, and he is hard to leave off the late Pick 4. (3) DUPREE HANOVER closed for a share at this level last week, now he gets McNair in the bike. He is another possibility for the late Pick 4. (5) SAULSBROOK IAN steps up off a win and I see him as a fringe player at this level. (1) IVY PARK should be good for a small share starting from the inside.