Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 10/5

Meet Stats: 24/61 (-$27.00)

Best Bets: 3/6 (-$0.70)

Spot Plays: 1/5 (-$6.40)

Best Bet: Race 6 (3) STONEBRIDGE HALO

Spot Play: Race 8 (7) CALICOJACK HANOVER

Early Pick 5: 236/78/237/167/18 $21.60 for 20c

Early Pick 4: 167/18/3/1289 $4.80 for 20c

Late Pick 5: 3/1289/7/1310/156 $4.80 for 20c

Late Pick 4: 1289/7/1310/156 $6.40 for 20c

Race 1: FILLIES & MARES: NW $18,000 IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,500 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS) *Pick 5 $75,000 Guarantee*

(3) STONEBRIDGE DRAMA moves inside after no chance in last two. Sorrie knows him well with speed drives three and four back. (6) TRIBAL DANCER just crushed a Pop Up Series at Grand River now gets back to the big track. Won races here last year. (2) TWIN B TIPSTER is more of a share type these days but gets a drop here. Worth using in multi leg wagers. (9) GIMME A CORONA has thirteen wins the past two years. She has kicked well late in last two.

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES PREFERRED. PP #1-6 DRAWN & PP#7-8 DRAWN

(8) SILVER LABEL gets away from ‘Joe Fresh and back to an overnight. Her speed is tough vs these and I think McNair blasts. (7) TELLS ON A ROLL has had a nice year with ten wins in nineteen starts. She’s another that’s better at this level. (1) HUNTRESS found her form again 9/13 with nice 26 2/5 kick at a lower level. (5) STYLE FOR A MILE isn’t much of a danger on the win end here but can fill exotics.

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Race 3: NW $4,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $15,860 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: N/A $1,550 P/S IN 2023-24. AE: NW $100 IN 2024

(7) DR JOE looked dangerous Monday with a rally to be second. He can put races together and the swiftness of this entry intrigues. (3) BETTORBEFLYIN comes out of fast races for Fritz. Nice win two starts back would be tough here if repeated. (2) SELF MADE shipped up from Ohio 9/30 and raced well when sub 3/1 on the board. Won six last year but has only managed one so far this season. (5) MAD MAN HILL has shown speed out of town, has three straight exacta finishes.

Race 4: FILLIES & MARES, NW $18,500 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NW $110,000 LIFETIME - Pick 4

(1) LEE LOO keeps McNair and the rail here after near miss in latest. Speed coming again from this one. (6) ALABAMA HANNAH has a big kick and back class just needs things to go her way to be effective. Board usually tells the story on her. (7) SHES GOT IT ALL drops a tick to a better level. Nice win vs these two back when favored. (10) ONE LAST WISH is another with a nice win at the level 9/27. Post could hurt here with all the speed signed up.

Race 5: NW $8,550 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $18,500 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW OF A RACE LAST 10 STARTS. AE: NW $2,500 IN 2024

(8) ORDER ONE TO GO chased a well meant, chalky winner 9/28 but finished strong. Can get back to winning ways here. (1) COLD CREEK QUESO comes off a sick scratch but showed improved lines prior to that with a win 9/14. His back class could show up at this level. (6) UNCLE SHANK A has been facing tough foes but gets a driver change here. (10) THE GREEK FREAK is better than his last when tiring on the front.

Race 6: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $88,500 LIFETIME - Pick 5

(3) STONEBRIDGE HALO adds Lasix and gets a better spot here. I think an early aggressive move is coming. (4) BETTERWITHGLASSES didn’t get his trip in the grassroots final. He needs to sit and setup a rally. (8) PASS AND STOW has shown ability in the past in ambitious spots. Last was better facing repeater. (10) RESILIENCE has stakes lines in the past, was a nice two year old but hasn’t done much at three so far.

Race 7: NW $25,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: N/A $5,720 IN 2024. AE: NW 8 RACES LIFETIME - Pick 4

(1) REDWOOD HANOVER gets a drop looking for a wake up. Tough trip in last and a few weeks off could help. (2) P L OZZY is in an every other pattern. This is an “on” week so expect speed. (8) DRAGONONTHEBEACH out raced his odds in last grabbing third late. Was on a roll not long ago at upper levels. (9) WRITE ME A ROSE got back on track with a drop in last. He’s capable here off best.

Race 8: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 4 RACES OR $65,000 LIFETIME. AE: 3 YEAR OLDS OPT. CLM. $60,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE

(7) CALICOJACK HANOVER has always had potential it just hasn’t added up to wins. Last was solid vs a sharp winner. (1) LOUS WORLD was favored vs choice in that race. Has back class and speed but rail can be tricky at this track. (4) FLAG PARTY steps up after four wins in five starts. He needs more to beat top two. (6) UNRIVALED HANOVER is a horse I’ve always liked. Drops back to an overnight looking to grab a check.

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Race 9: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $35,500 LIFETIME. AE: 3 YEAR OLDS OPT. CLM. $40,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE

(1) CEREAL ASSASSIN has been sitting on a win in recent starts and gets away from speedy foes. (3) WATCHING SUNSET has been closing up vs grassroots types. If he gets a trip can be effective vs. these. (10) FOUR BY FOUR has shown flashes of talent and likely needed last race. I think he rallies here. (6) SPORTY BEE kicked 27 2/5 in his last two. He’s out racing big odds and can add value to exotics again.

Race 10: HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $15,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF LAST 4 STARTS

(5) ARTIES IDEAL was a well-driven winner in latest his third in four starts. This race is similar in quality. (6) WILDRIVERBUMBLEBEE has found his form and is winning in fast times. I’m Expecting speed again here. (1) BLOCKBUSTER TRADE gets away from ‘Rose who was never losing last. He’s better suited to this level. (2) IDEAL PERCEPTION is an old class horse that just makes money every year. Should be up close again. (7) MYTHIC GAMBLER keeps winning at Rideau, let’s see on new circuit.