Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 10/4

Top Pick Stats: 256/746 (-$240.80)

Best Bets: 32/68 ($8.40); Spot Plays: 14/68 (-$37.80)

Best Bet: NIJINSKY (Race 9)

Spot Play: WALLACE HARTLEY (Race 10)

Early Pick-5: 7,8/1,2/1,4/2,7/5,6 $6.40

Late Pick-5: 1,2/5,6/3,5/2/2 $1.60

Race 1: FILLIES & MARES, 2 & 3 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW $15,000 (ON SIRED $18,750) LIFETIME.

(8) EASY STATION hasn’t raced in nearly a month but put up some sharp speed in Lexington and got Roy’s nod over the #3. If she is ready to roll off the qualifier, she could be very dangerous. (7) FAVORITISM was a wrapped up winner on debut at the shortest of prices. No J-Mac tonight, but there is more in her tank. (3) ANNIES DIVA has been picking up the pieces against tougher Grassroots foes in recent weeks. McClure gets the call tonight and could have her in a decent spot. She can get a piece.

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES OPEN.

(2) ABSOLUTION went off at a bargain price of 10-1 and was able to get the job done after a nice trip last week. She has been extremely good at the top classes in recent months, and is hard to ignore. (1) GRIT N GRACE was unable to find room until it was too late against the likes of Sylvia Hanover. If she can get forward and avoid the mid-race shuffle, she can take them down the road. (4) CAVIAR N CRACKERS produced her best effort in a few weeks and looked like herself again. She looms as another contender in this short field.

Race 3: POP UP SERIES: H&G STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN L3 STARTS (W/O $40,000 IN 2025 N/E). AE: NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). LEG 1.

Any chance of a price on (1) RIPASSO is gone after the post switch. He was a giant second place finisher in his latest after nearly swooping the entire field. The scratch could scare a couple bettors off, but this is an easier group overall. (4) ETHERIUM PARTY has come out of nowhere in his last three starts, producing some huge efforts for the level. We’ll see if it can translate to the big track. (5) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS was in a tough spot from jump, as he immediately was relegated to mid-pack and was going to need a trip to develop. It really didn’t, but he was moving forward on the end of it and finished a fine third. He deserves to be used.

Race 4: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $50,000 (OS $66,750) LIFETIME. AE: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER OPT. CLM. $60,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(7) LYONS FRANKY J is in top form right now. Yes, he was dusted by Time Passer last week, but everyone was, in a mile that can only be described as insane. He has some very strong turn of foot and can get into the race again. (2) WICKED EXPRESS was bet down to the second choice last week and took the field all the way despite setting a fast first half. If he can sustain his move on the lead, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be right there again. (4) TIP OF TIME tried a first over move at the aforementioned Wicked Express but was turned away by that rival. He could sit a nice trip behind the #2, but doesn’t have as much pop as he should given the trips that he gets.

Race 5: 2 & 3 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW $15,000 (ON SIRED $18,750) LIFETIME.

(6) FIGMENT has shown a lot of talent right away, posting two big miles to start his career. He has the ability to overcome a mid-pack trip; I can see him gliding by rivals in the stretch. (5) LEGENDS RULE shipped to Delaware for a reason during Jug Week, and Trevor Henry traveled down to drive him for a reason. He was unleashed on the front and wired the field. Similar tactics can see him right there at the wire tonight. (1) LYONS DUKEY has had a bit of hard luck in Lexington, but with how fast the miles are, his closing style is not as useful there. Tonight, I can see him finding a helmet and moving well off cover to get a piece.

Race 6: POP UP SERIES: H&G STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN L3 STARTS (W/O $40,000 IN 2025 N/E). AE: NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). LEG 1.

(2) COLD CREEK PANTERA was against it from jump when taking to the back. He was unable to capitalize on his sharp win two starts ago. Fast forward to tonight where he draws much better and should be put in play. (1) WHY WOULDNT YA is another who needs to be closer to the action to have any chance. He had been making his kick work elsewhere, but it can falter on the bigger track. (5) ROLL EM has been a darling at Charlottetown in the past, but has tailed off from his top form. He can get a piece.

Race 7: NW $10,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000.

(5) PACINO HANOVER finds an even weaker bunch than what he has been facing. Last week was his best in a while; I think he gets the job done tonight. (6) COLD CREEK QUESO was gigantic in the stretch last week and will provide a square number again. If he gets going early enough, he could be challenging for the win again. (3) NAZARE got a bit of confidence back with his drop in class last week and now is in a spot where he could be first to the lead. He can hang on for a share.

Race 8: WINNERS OF 3 BUT NOT MORE THAN 7 RACES OR $80,000 (OS $100,000) LIFETIME. AE: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER OPT. CLM. $80,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(5) WANNABEABIGSTAR was able to grind into the race last week; that usually makes him an extremely viable win candidate, as he has a great turn of foot when ripping off cover. I’ll look for him to get the right trip tonight. (3) ROCHESTER FLASH ripped through a wicked first half last week before eventually fading back. If that mile didn’t take too much out of him, he can be dangerous as a front-end threat. (6) COURTS ON FIRE was an outsider to watch around NA Cup time and he produced a couple sharp efforts here in the early days of summer. This is a class test, but he can get a piece.

Race 9: OPEN.

(2) NIJINSKY got a prep drive when returning, and the bettors seemed to know that. He was favored, but not overwhelmingly. He towers over this field, and now with a tightener under this belt, that statement holds even more weight. (6) CALICOJACK HANOVER actually got a really good drive from Christoforou and pulled off the upset at 9-2. He is razor sharp right now. (5) SAULSBROOK VICTOR returns to Mohawk after staking a successful operation at Oak Grove in the early summer, with many sharp efforts. He is fast enough to contend, even off the bench.

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Race 10: POP UP SERIES: H&G STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN L3 STARTS (W/O $40,000 IN 2025 N/E). AE: NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). LEG 1.

(2) WALLACE HARTLEY finds a perfect spot for another wake-up which he got three starts ago. This pace could get interesting in the early stages. (5) DELIGHTFUL LEADER gets a key driver change in my opinion after a sixth place finish where he was mired in mid-pack. He has down the road potential. (4) SAUBLE ACE has down the road potential sometimes but doesn’t consistently sustain in the final eighth. McClure will have options off the car.

Race 11: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $12,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000.

(10) TROSA A draws worst tonight but got a nice tightener under his belt in what was his first start since June. The time to buy stock is now. (5) JACK PANIC was unexpectedly empty as the favorite last week and faded back to seventh. He has shown better than that in the past; Look for him to rebound. (8) LARCENY was mired at the back in his latest and never got involved. He draws worse now, but that could make for some urgency in the early stages.