Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 10/3

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2020
Meet Stats: 248 - 798 / $1426.00 (-$170.00)
Best Bets: 39 - 71 / $129.80 (-$13.20)
Spot Plays: 13 - 74 / $108.50 (-$37.50)
Best Bet: DONTSTOPBELIEVIN (6TH)
Spot Play: BETTOR B GOING (10TH)
Early Pick 5: 2,4,9/3,4,8/5,7,10/4,8,10/5,10 = $32.40
Late Pick 5: 6/2,3,5,8/5,7,9/1,3,9/2,4,7 = $19.20
Early Pick 4: 4,8,10/4,5,10/6/2,3,5,8 = $36
Late Pick 4: 1,3,9/2,4,7/2,4,7/2,7 = $54

Race 1: F&M NW $19,000 L5 or $28,000 L10 AE: NW $110,000 LT or OPT CLM $40,000 **GTD $100,000 Pick 5**

(4) SUNNY DEE should have her confidence back coming off a drop and pop and she is capable of stepping up and repeating and the price should be square; top call. (2) BOADICEA comes out of a final of a Grand Circuit race and she is an obvious fit here. Speed should be coming in this spot; using. (9) PHILLY HANOVER also exits the Milton and I wouldn't be surprised if she gets sent hard leaving the gate this week. She is another in with a chance here. (7) BORN A DRAGON seems to come flying every week and while she faces tougher here, she can take a share.

Race 2: CLM HDCP $25,000 to $30,000

(3) P L IDAHO has found his best form and he was game in defeat to (8) JULERICA last week. Nod to the latter based on post position advantage but using both in the Pick 5. (4) GOLDINTHEBADLANDS had no issue from post 9 last week and he merits a long look here despite moving up in class. (7) CINNAMACK fits claimers better and he can land in this Super.

Race 3: NW3 or $62,500 LT

(10) REVOLT survived an all-out sprint last time and took a new life's mark in an impressive effort; call to repeat. (7) INDICTABLE HANOVER lands in a field he should beat but you have to wonder why he missed all the big summer dances, don't you? I'll proceed with caution here. (5) ANETO tries hard every race, but he has often raced over his head. I give him an upset chance here. (4) MENLO PARK gave the choice all he could handle last time and he should be in the mix again.

Race 4: F&M NW $12,000 L5 or $25,000 L10 - Pick 4

(4) BETCHA BABY gets to drop to a level where she usually excels, although she has other droppers to deal with here; slight nod in a contentious race. (8) COUSIN MARY is another mare that does her best work on the drop and she should be heard from here. (10) BESTSELLER HANOVER dropped and crushed, taking a new life's mark in the process. She's not out of this. (5) TUAPEKA JESSIE N hasn't missed the board yet since arriving at Mohawk Park but this is a tougher assignment and I'm not sure I'd take a short price this week.

Race 5: NW $11,000 L5 or $23,500 L10 or NW 4 LT AE: OPT CLM $30,000

(10) PLAY JET RAY took a new lifetime mark last time he raced this low six starts back and he should get decently positioned early then attempt a brush and crush; top call. (5) RHYTHM IN MOTION hasn’t been far back facing some of the best sophomore pacers and he should be a threat here; using. (4) WINDSUN RICKY paced a 53-flat back 1/2 last week now he gets to drop; upset chance. (1) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER was right there at this level two starts back and he is likely to deploy a stalking style as he did that night; using underneath.

Race 6: F&M NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $20,000 - Pick 5

(6) DON'T STOP BELIEVIN had no answer for Sunny Dee's 26 4/5 third 1/4 onslaught last week but in this spot, there are none dropping as far as that rival was. She gets top billing here. (2) SPRINGBRIDGE SASSY draws much better and she has a decent chance of completing the Exacta. (4) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE was under the gun most of the way after leaving hard from the rail last time and she tired late. I see her taking a stalking approach this time and rallying for a share. (10) ESPRIT DEQUIPE is another who figures to rally past some of these late; using on the bottom.

Race 7: NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10

(5) HAIL CHRISTIAN N's local debut was dynamite, and he gets top call here returning at the same level. (8) ROYAL RENEGADE also comes off a nice effort, but he often falls victim to road trouble; demand a price. (3) HIDDEN DELIGHT is getting closer and his price will be good with him moving up one level; using. (2) POINTOMYGRANSON steps back up off a nice win. A small share is likely for him in this class.

Race 8: PREFERRED HANDICAP - Pick 4

(9) ROCKME ROLLME is really good right now and the 9-hole will only boost his price tonight; top call. (7) POINTS NORTH was a good 2nd to the choice last time, and he should be the main danger again. (5) BEST IN SHOW is at the top of his game now and if he finds live cover, he should be dangerous in the lane; using. (4) NICKLE BAG races tough every week and he can sneak into the Tri or Super here.

Race 9: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $34,000 LT

(3) CAVIART VAL couldn't seal the deal last week but he has post advantage here on (9) DEVIL OR ANGEL, the rival that picked him off late; nod the latter but using both in the Pick 4. (1) DARTH FADER is showing signs of improvement and he can take a share in this spot. (4) ILLGETMYOWN THANKS should rally for another minor share tonight.

Race 10: NW $5,100 L5 or $10,000 L10

(2) BETTER B GOING's recent form racing against better is decent and he drops and moves inside now. He should be tough in here. (4) SIR PUGSLEY's first-over try vs. better failed last week. He should move up this week, too; using. (7) WESTSLUCKY TERROR is usually a threat at this level and he should be blasting off the gate. He is another in with a decent chance. (3) HOMEY JOE is a good one to use on the bottom of the Super.

Race 11: NW $16.500 L5 or $29,500 L10

(2) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN does his best work when he races near the front and he should be well-situated early in this mile; top call. (7) EAST END is an obvious contender on the class drop but note that he has 11 slices vs. three wins so far in 2020; demand a price. (5) MONGOLIAN HERO N fits well here and he will be passing horses late, but I'll use him underneath. (3) REAL WILLEY is in solid form and he figures to take another share here racing close to the front throughout. (4) CHOREOGRAPHER hasn't missed the Exacta in six races, but this is much tougher, and he is unlikely to be left alone on the engine; for a small slice only.