Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 10/29

Meet Stats: 592 - 1802 / $2,936.80 (-$666.20)

Best Bets: 90 - 165 / $303.80 (-$26.20)

Spot Plays: 44 - 167 / $300.70 (-$33.30)

Best Bet: TEST OF FAITH (3RD)

Spot Play: BACK OF THE NECK (8TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,2/7,8/1,3/2,4/6,7,10 = $14.40

Middle Pick 5: 1,3,4,5/2,5/5,6,8/3,6/6,8 = $19.20

Late Pick 5: 5,6,8/3,6/6,8/3,5,6/4,5,7 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 2,4/6,7,10/1,3,4,5/2,5 = $48

Late Pick 4: 3,6/6,8/3,5,6/4,5,7 = $36

Race 1: NW $7,800 L5 or $16,800 L10 AE: OPT CLM $45,000 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(1) STONEBRIDGE REX drops and stands a very good chance to pop here starting from the rail. (2) QUAN BLUE CHIP is razor-sharp and he should be a bit closer at the head of the lane tonight. He is the one to fend off late. (9) ROCKME ROLLME has no luck with post draws lately but he is sharp and he has the leading driver. He's in with a shot tonight. (3) TAKE A GAMBLE had a clear shot in the lane last week but couldn't gain on the top three. He is likely a fringe player again tonight.

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Race 2: BREEDERS CROWN FINAL OPEN MARE TROT

(7) ATLANTA arrives in top form and she gets to add Lasix tonight. She should be tough to beat here. (8) WHEN DOVESCRY beat the choice in Ohio on 10/1 and I imagine Miller will blast with her looking for another pocket trip. She could do if she can work out that trip. (5) BELLA BELLINI seems to be a but trip dependent and she may end up first up tonight. I see her finishing in the bottom of the exotics tonight. (1) HP MAMA B got a good tune up vs. males and she can take a small slice here.

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Race 3: BREEDERS CROWN FINAL OPEN MARE PACE

(1) TEST OF FAITH typically saves her best for stakes finals and she is strictly the one to beat tonight. (3) MIKALA is sure to get more aggressive tonight and she is the most likely to upset the choice here. (5) GRACE HILL closed from a very tough spot to win her elim and she can close for a share here. (2) SO MUCH MORE is iron-tough and it would be no surprise to see her finish higher than predicted here.

Race 4: BREEDERS CROWN FINAL 3YO FILLY TROT - Pick 4

(4) JOVIALITY S and (2) JIGGY JOG S couldn’t have looked much better winning their elims last week. A strong case can be made for either tonight, but I think when they both bring their best race, the former is a bit better. (6) FASHION SCHOONER had a good trip on the engine last week but Jiggy Jog was trotting two to her one in the last 1/16th. I see her setting the pace and hanging around for a share again. (7) WARRAWEE XENIA should close late for a share if she stays flat.

Race 5: BREEDERS CROWN FINAL 3YO FILLY PACE

I like the post draw for (7) MAX CONTRACT, who should find a live helmet to follow tonight. That is when she is at her best and she gets the call to upset. (10) NIKI HILL is the obvious filly to beat but she could get stung early here and it's worth taking a shot to beat her. (6) TREACHEROUS DRAGON comes in fresh and draws best and she did win the Fan Hanover here in June. She's not out of this. (5) PROHIBITION LEGAL is best of the local hopes. She can land in the Super.

Race 6: BREEDERS CROWN FINAL 3YO COLT TROT **Gtd. $100K Pick 5**

(5) BRANDED BY LINDY was good last week and he should be even sharper tonight. He draws better than (1) KING OF THE NORTH and the former gets the nod. The latter may have snuck up last week as he was allowed a clear lead at big odds. He was up to the task with Lasix added, though, and we know he doesn’t need the lead to win. (4) DOUBLE DECEIVER had a clear lane up the inside in the lane and he flew late. He is in with a shot here. (3) SLAY was right there last week and he is another in with a shot here.

Race 7: BREEDERS CROWN FINAL 3YO COLT PACE

Supplemental entry (2) BYTHEMISSAL looked strong last week repelling the perfectly-pocketed 2nd choice with no urging from driver Page. He gets the nod over (5) PEBBLE BEACH who was also impressive and 3/5ths of a second faster. (8) PONDA WARRIOR can fly late and outfinish the rest to round out the Tri. Consistent (6) I DID IT MYWAY should be part of the exotics again.

Race 8: BREEDERS CROWN FINAL OPEN TROT - Pick 5

(8) BACK OF THE NECK has been razor-sharp since his Maple Leaf Trot upset win here on 9/3 and he gets the call to mow these down late, likely at a square price tonight. (5) ECURIE D DK is obviously one of the best in here, but I don't love that he has only been raced three times since 8/6. Factor in Dunn taking over the lines he will be an underlay tonight in a spot where he is probably vulnerable. (6) JUJUBEE has rounded back to good form and he is another in with a shot tonight. Local hero (2) FASHION FRENZIE can sit a trip near the front and stick around for a share.

Race 9: BREEDERS CROWN FINAL OPEN PACE - Pick 4

(6) BULLDOG HANOVER set the fastest opening 3/4 in Red Mile history - over a track that wasn't particularly fast - shooting for the record and it softened him up. I don't see his main rival (3) ALLYWAG HANOVER getting the same perfect trip in this field. The Bulldog bounces back tonight. (7) TATTOO ARTIST is unbeaten since finishing a good 2nd to the choice in the Pacing Derby and he should be in the mix here. (4) WORKIN ONA MYSTERY, 3rd to the two choices in Lexington, adds Lasix for this and he should be part of the Tri or Super, passing horses late.

Race 10: PREFERRED 2

(6) CODENAME CIGAR BOX came within one stride of knocking off Tattoo Artist last time and he draws well again tonight. He should be able to mow these down late. (8) CARBINE was 3rd in that same race after racing first up and he will probably be more aggressive this time with Tattoo Artist gone; using. (7) MAPPOS LION is a hard trier that gains ground in the lane every week. He is another in with a shot in a good betting race. (5) WHEELS ON FIRE won as chalk in this class two starts back. It's obvious he can win, but I am inclined to bet against him in this spot and price shop.

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Race 11: NW $12,800 L5 or $22,000 L10

Last time (3) ISLANDSPECIALMAJOR raced this low and drew inside, he produced a lifetime-best score on 9/24. He has a good chance vs. this field. (5) LEGION SEELSTER probably wins if he gets clearance earlier in the lane last week. He has a penchant for finding troubled trips, though, and he will get bet here. What price will you accept? (6) FABRIZIO N was close in a fast mile last week and he is a threat to lead all the way here. (7) DONTPOKETHEDRAGON is sharp and he likely won't get bet much here; price look.

Race 12: NW $2,900 L3

(5) FOREFATHER drops to the bottom conditioned class, moves into the Auciello barn, and gets Macdonald back for this. He should wake up here and he will probably get bet lower than his 6 to 1 morning line quote. (4) SOMETIME SOMEWHERE gets Henry and post relief and I could see him tripping out racing close to the front tonight; using. (7) CARLAS MACH A is another that goes to Auciello and this six-time winner in 2022 looks well-prepped here; upset chance. (1) THATLL BE SPORTY is one that always seems to close too late. There is a chance he will turn it around at this bottom level, but I just can't take a short price here. (8) REAL WILLEY likely sits and rallies for a small slice here.