Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 10/19

Top Pick Stats: 537 - 1590 / $2,880.90 (-$299.10)

Best Bets: 77 - 146 / $241.90 (-$53.10)

Spot Plays: 35 - 143 / $326.70 (+$40.70)

Best Bet: BAYFIELD BEACH (5TH)

Spot Play: R J RINGO (10TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,3,7/8,9/2,3,4,8/1,4,6/3 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 2,7,9/2,4,5,6,8/2,10/1/3,9 = $12

Early Pick 4: 1,4,6/3/2,7,9/2,4,5,7,8 = $9

Late Pick 4: 2,10/1/3,9/2,3,9 = $2.40

Race 1: NW $2,500 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,035 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). (W/O $12,500 LAST 10 STARTS N/E) **Gtd. $75,000 Pick 5**

(7) PIPEWRENCH CHARLIE’s last start in an amateur driver’s race is a toss. This is a class drop for him and Cullen will likely get aggressive with him; top call. (1) FULL DISCLOSURE was on the move in the amateur driver’s race when he got completely taken out by a breaker. He was on a roll before that start, and he gets a pro back in the bike tonight; using. (3) BIG BULLY is in easier here and he should get aggressive vs. these. He would not be a surprise in this spot. (5) RILKOFF raced better last time, and he fits okay in here. He can close for a share.

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES, NW $4,000 LAST 5 STARTS AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000

This race should come down to the droppers lined up on the outside of the gate. Of those, I’ll side with (9) WILDCAT STAR, who was McNair’s choice making her third start back here. (8) SPORTS DUCHESS was a front end winner at this level two starts back and she is a speed threat tonight on the class drop; using. (7) CHIEFS DREAM GIRL should be good for a share on the drop tonight. (3) BETTERNOTMACHME is another that fits better at this level. She should be in the exotics mix.

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Race 3: 2 & 3 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW $15,000 (ON SIRED $21,000) LIFETIME. AE: 3 YO N/A $1,290 P/S IN 2024

(8) GRAVITATIONAL beat NW2 at Flamboro and he will likely offer a good price in this spot; call to upset. (4) GYPSY JOE looked like a different racehorse on 10/10 when he got put into the race leaving the gate and he converted. He looks capable of doubling up in here. It’s hard to leave (2) HOUSE EDGE HANOVER out considering he has won 10 of 13 starts to date. (3) TIP OF TIME is a decent 2YO facing elders and he can land in the exotics.

Race 4: NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $20,850 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW 5 RACES LIFETIME. AE: N/A $2,100 P/S IN 2024 OR NW $100 L3 Pick 4

(6) ORDER ONE TO GO changed tactics last week and it almost paid off with a front end win. He draws best here, and I’ll give him the nod in a race with several options. (4) WOODMERE STEALDEAL took a lot of action at the windows last week, but he dropped back and closed mildly. That tightener should serve him well and he should be more aggressive this time; using. (1) KAPTAIN KARLOS seems to fit well vs. these, and he returns from a rest showing a good qualifying mile. Borth chose him over another that won his last start; price look. (8) BOSTON BOUND drops and he won at this level five starts back, but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot starting from a wide post.

Race 5: NW $18,000 IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS) OR NOT AVERAGING $1,570 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS).AE: N/A $435 P/S IN 2024

(3) BAYFIELD BEACH gets both class and post relief tonight and he will be a single for me in this spot where his is likely to control the race from the outset. (7) MAJOR FERNCO N is another facing easier, and McNair will likely put him into play leaving the gate; Exacta factor. (5) TYPHOON STRIDE N raced well at this level last week, but a small share is likely for him facing class droppers tonight. (6) WILDRIVERBUMBLEBEE drops but he loses Macdonald. I’ll use him underneath expecting him to pass some of these late in the mile.

Race 6: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 4 RACES OR $51,000 (OS $76.750) LIFETIME Pick 5

(7) FASNACHT HANOVER stole a 57 1/5 opening 1/2 last week and there was no catching him. He doesn’t need the benefit of a slow pace to win, however, and he gets the call to repeat. (2) IVY PARK has been facing some tough sophomores and he moves into the Beaton barn here shipping north. He has missed five weeks, though, so I have mixed feelings here. Tab the tote for clues. (9) FLAG PARTY couldn’t get to the choice last week, but he continues to race very well, and he is in with a shot here at what should be a square price. (10) OVERTHINKING is worth a look racing for Menary, but I will use him underneath from post 10.

Race 7: NW $14,500 LAST 5 OR $29,500 LAST 10 STS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. AE: NW $64,750 IN 2024 (MIN 15 STS)

(6) AMERICAN HISTORY just missed vs. better, and he should be tough to beat on the class drop here. (2) PACINO HANOVER paced a sub-53 back 1/2 in the same race and he gets a better post here. He would be no surprise in this spot, and I’ll use him on multi-race tickets. (8) ERVIN HANOVER has always had a ton of speed and he goes for Menary here with McNair in the bike. He’s hard to dismiss in this spot. (4) TYGA HANOVER was Jamieson’s choice of three in here and he comes off a game win. He could add some value to multi-race tickets.

Race 8: NW $4,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $14,500 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: NW $14,500 IN 2023 OR 2024. AE: NW 3 RACES IN 2023-24 Pick 4

(10) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS got a start back now he gets McNair in the bike. He has the speed to overcome post 10 and it’s go time; top call. (2) ENAVANT, the 2021 Potomac Pace winner is interesting here having won three times in Quebec in the summer. Now he moves to the Blais barn and adds Lasix, and he would smoke this field on his best day. I’ll toss him on multi-race tickets. (4) HOWYOUPLAY THEGAME won at this level two starts back and he should enter exotics contention here dropping back down. (1) REIGN SUPREME drops for this second start and I can see him taking a slice this time.

Race 9: PREFERRED

(1) STONEBRIDGE VICTOR is on a roll right now and I see him controlling this race from the outset. He will be a single for me. (6) FORTIFY adds Lasix off a win and he is another that is hot, winning four of his last six; Exacta factor. (2) POWERTRAIN got a smart drive and a great trip and blew up the tote board last week. He should sit a trip and take a share here. (3) JABBERWOCKY is likely to flash speed and stick around for a share this week.

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Race 10: 5YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,250 (OS $40,500) LIFETIME. AE: 3 YEAR OLDS OPT. CLM. $40,000

(3) R J RINGO won twice at this level in early September, and he can improve sharply in this spot; call to upset. (9) CEREAL ASSASSIN comes off a game win and he is the one to fear in this spot; using. (1) SOUTHWIND CIRCUIT has improved recently, and he can get a good trip racing close to the front and take a share here. (2) WATCHING SUNSET is better than he has shown recently. Consider using him on the bottom of Tri and Super bets.

Race 11: HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $15,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF LAST 4 STARTS. (W/O $16,750 LAST 5 STARTS N/E)

(9) KOLBY TWO STEP takes a big drop here and moves into Menary’s barn. Beat him to greet the cashier. This is a low level for (3) MOMAS SON BYRNE, too and he adds Lasix for this return. He is very fast on his best day, and he is the other one that I’ll use in the late Pick 4. (2) MYTHIC GAMBLER was good in his local debut, and he is very sharp, but if either or both of the top two choices bring their A game, he will be racing for a slice. (7) MAGICAL ARTHUR comes off a fast win taken with the aid of a great trip. This is a tougher spot; small share predicted. (1) BETTORBEFLYIN is in good form, and he fits well at this level. He can close for another share here.