Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 10/18

Top Pick Stats: 295/855 (-$307.80)

Best Bets: 39/78 ($13.00); Spot Plays: 16/78 (-$38.40)

Best Bet: NIJINSKY (Race 10)

Spot Play: SIPPINONSEAROC (Race 4)

Early Pick-5: 4,5,9/3,4,7/3,4/8/9 $3.60

Middle Pick-5: 6/7/1,6/2/4 $0.40

Late Pick-5: 2/4/5,6,8/8/3 $0.60

Race 1: OPEN 2.

(9) REMEMBER THE ALAMO was in a tough spot when sitting fourth. The horse in front of him was half in, half out when he wanted to start his move, but his turn of foot in the final eighth was still best of anyone. If he can work out a trip from post nine, he looms as a danger (5) BLUE HUNT made his patented move of bottoming out the field work to perfection in a lower class last week. He has the potential to pull out that same move against a salty field. (4) AMERICAN HISTORY looked like he was toying with his rivals when winning last week. He looked in trouble at the top of the stretch, but stormed home for a win. His return to the races has been excellent.

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Race 2: 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(7) SOLAR VOLTAGE made a strong move to take the lead at the top of the stretch, but just missed by half a length in what was his best performance to date. I’ll look for him to break through tonight. (4) MANDESTINY has taken on some tougher horses in many of his starts, but now has the opportunity to step forward by adding Lasix. Getting some room in the stretch would help, too. I would expect him to be one of the first horses off the car. (3) LASTDRIVEDOWNMAIN is another colt that you just have to consider on the strength of his morning preps and the connections. Scott Zeron is in town for the Breeders Crown eliminations, but finds himself on this colt as an appetizer. He should be given a chance on debut.

Race 3: BREEDERS CROWN: ELIMINATION: 3 YEAR OLD FILLY TROT. ENTRY FEE: $7,500 USD. ALL HORSES MUST BE IN RETENTION BEFORE 11PM FRIDAY OCTOBER 17TH.

(4) DELANEY HANOVER had stamped herself as one of the top fillies in this division when Hambletonian weekend was all said and done, and hasn’t done much to dissuade that notion since. She is by far the sharpest filly coming into this race. (3) MONALISHI should give the local crowd a thrill if she races back to last week’s form. At her best, she is a Grand Circuit filly that can do some serious damage. (1) STASH SOME CASH trotted a gigantic final three quarters to finish third in the Filly Futurity. Dunn has gotten plenty out of this filly in her last two starts, as he often does. She can work into the race with any trip.

Race 4: BREEDERS CROWN: ELIMINATION: 3 YEAR OLD COLT PACE. ENTRY FEE: $7,500 USD. ALL HORSES MUST BE IN RETENTION BEFORE 11PM FRIDAY OCTOBER 17TH.

I’ll be the first to say that (8) SIPPINONSEAROC wasn’t great in his lone start around the Mohawk oval, despite the trip that presented itself. He came up short as the favorite, and it raised some questions. However, since the Adios, he has been back in career best form. Does he like Lexington? Yeah, but find me a horse who doesn’t. He got a recent enough start on Lasix; I’ll look for him to overcome the wide draw. (6) PRINCE HAL HANOVER has danced all the dances this year and remained an excellent horse throughout the year. That has earned him over a million dollars and a chance to redeem himself after the NA Cup fiasco. He needs to make the final first, but it’s hard to imagine that he doesn’t. (2) MADDEN OAKS has had a fascinating season for more reasons than one. He comes off a brutal trip where he was first over into a sub-1:20 three quarters. I’m very curious to see what Louis Roy can get out of him.

Race 5: FILLIES & MARES OPEN.

Despite the overthinking that occurred while handicapping this race, I won’t take the swing. (9) SYLVIA HANOVER is the best horse in this race, and I expect her to be driven as such. The reborn Twin B Joe Fresh is not here, which is all she should need to succeed. (4) GRIT N GRACE is a mare that I lean towards in these prep type races, because of her ability to produce lightning quick gate speed. She is not entered in next week’s final, so she could be left alone on the front. (5) SO MUCH MORE is getting back to her top form, and suffered a tough defeat at the wire at a double digit price. I would expect her to be in the top flight off the car.

Race 6: BREEDERS CROWN: ELIMINATION: 3 YEAR OLD FILLY TROT. ENTRY FEE: $7,500 USD. ALL HORSES MUST BE IN RETENTION BEFORE 11PM FRIDAY OCTOBER 17TH.

(6) YO TILLIE has been the best filly in this division, frequently being wrapped up and ready to go around again. This field will have to catch her. (9) R DUTCHESS crossed the wire first in a dominant Elegant Image win, but was placed last for interference. She followed it up with a monster effort from off the pace in Kentucky. Her form is as good as anyone’s right now. (1) WHAT A BID HANOVER has looked like a filly that could’ve won the Hambo Oaks, but she has also looked like a filly that just may never be quite right for her entire career. I hesitate to even use her on the ticket, but she is uber talented.

Race 7: BREEDERS CROWN: ELIMINATION: 3 YEAR OLD COLT PACE. ENTRY FEE: $7,500 USD. ALL HORSES MUST BE IN RETENTION BEFORE 11PM FRIDAY OCTOBER 17TH.

(7) LOUPRINT brings a 10-for-10 record in 2025 into this elimination. He will look to repeat as a Breeders Crown champion, but tonight’s business must be taken care of first. He is the number one horse in the sport for a reason. (9) CRACK SHOT has looked the best he ever has, and comes off two very sharp wins that put him in contention against this group. He will have to overcome the wide draw, but looms as a natural exacta partner. (5) DANDY IDEAL has stayed away from the true top tier of the division, and it has helped him string together many wins in a row. Last week, he took on some tough older horses at Pocono, in a race that included Manolete, and finished a solid fourth in a fast mile.

Race 8: BREEDERS CROWN: ELIMINATION: OPEN TROT. ENTRY FEE: $10,000 USD. ALL HORSES MUST BE IN RETENTION BEFORE 11PM FRIDAY OCTOBER 17TH.

(1) LEXUS KODY began his streak back to stardom a couple of months ago when he pulled off an upset in his Maple Leaf Trot elimination. Since then, he has been as good as ever, and comes off a tightener in the morning at The Meadows. If he brings his best again, he will be tough to catch. (6) FRENCH WINE was excellent from off the pace in the Caesars Trotting Classic, and backed it up with a strong third place finish in the Allerage on Red Mile’s closing weekend. For a horse that we hadn’t heard much from this season, he certainly has vaulted himself right back on the map. (8) AMIGO VOLO comes off a sharp win in Mohawk’s Open. He has found much success at this track and should have a chance to add value to the exotics.

Race 9: BREEDERS CROWN: ELIMINATION: 3 YEAR OLD FILLY PACE. ENTRY FEE: $7,500 USD. ALL HORSES MUST BE IN RETENTION BEFORE 11PM FRIDAY OCTOBER 17TH.

(2) MIKI AND MINNIE has the post edge on her main rival, and comes off a qualifying effort that should have her tight coming into tonight. I don’t take much away from her in last month’s defeat. (9) CHANTILLY looks back to herself again after two easy wins against provincial competition. She had a couple blips come up in the last two months, but has returned to form that fits with any filly in the division. (8) LOOKSGOODINLOULOU is without a doubt a Lexington lover, but is still a filly that I am a big fan of. She just missed in the Glen Garnsey from post ten, and has excellent form coming into this elimination that makes her a contender.

Race 10: BREEDERS CROWN: ELIMINATION: OPEN PACE. ENTRY FEE: $10,000 USD. ALL HORSES MUST BE IN RETENTION BEFORE 11PM FRIDAY OCTOBER 17TH.

(4) NIJINSKY will take his shot at the top pacer in the division, and should have every chance to dethrone that rival. His two efforts since returning were excellent. (2) ERVIN HANOVER is the top horse in a stale Open Pace division. He has done nothing wrong this year, and has visually been the most impressive horse of the group, but I will lean against. (7) OAKWOOD ARDAN IR has the ability to get into any race with his turn of foot in the back half. His morning prep was just fine coming into tonight; He could add some value to exotics.

Race 11: BREEDERS CROWN: ELIMINATION: OPEN PACE. ENTRY FEE: $10,000 USD. ALL HORSES MUST BE IN RETENTION BEFORE 11PM FRIDAY OCTOBER 17TH.

(5) KEN HANOVER got back to his winning ways in Kentucky with a sharp closing effort to just get up in the final strides. He was better in the early parts of summer, but he could be peaking at just the right time. (6) MAXIMUS MIKI is another who hasn’t done much wrong since becoming an Open pacer a few years ago. He is always right in contention, but that makes for some tough losses if you side with him on top. (8) COACH STEFANOS gets reunited with James Macdonald who always seems to get a little bit more out of him. He was mired at the back in the Canadian Pacing Derby; I’ll look for a cleaner trip.

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Race 12: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $12,000 LAST 8 STARTS (W/O $22,500 LAST 8 STARTS N/E) AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000.

(8) ARBITRAGE HANOVER is 0-for-15 this year, but has more than enough speed and ability to produce a down the road effort when dropping in class once again. (7) FORTIFY also drops in class and is a down the road threat when at these middle conditioned levels. (6) LAMBORGHINI LOU returned to Mohawk with two sharp closing efforts. He was last for most of last week’s mile before vaulting past horses in the stretch. If J-Mac gets a little more out of him, he could produce an upset.

Race 13: NW $9,700 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: N/A $2,360 P/S IN 2025.

(3) CENTURY KOMODO takes a big class drop from the company that he has been facing in recent weeks. He hasn’t been pacing bad miles, but they aren’t good enough for the wicked speed that the Open has been showing. He should be set for a big effort tonight. (7) CAPTAIN FEAR NOT is another big class dropper who is looking for a confidence booster. Last time he was handled aggressively, he went on to win. I could easily see those two lining up 1-2 off the car. (4) PACINO HANOVER has been unable to get the job done at this level in his last two efforts, but always looms as a threat to stalk and pounce. He is a must use on tickets.