Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 10/17/26

Top Pick Stats: 586/1874 (-$989.90)

Best Bets: 67/169 (-$55.50); Spot Plays: 35/172 (-$114.00)

Best Bet: ABSOLUTION (Race 8)

Spot Play: COPPERFIELD (Race 7)

Early Pick-5: 1,6/2,3/4/1,4/6,7 $3.20

Middle Pick-5: 6,7/3,5/5/1,6/6,7 $3.20

Late Pick-5: 5/1,6/6,7/2,6/1,4 $3.20

Race 1: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $12,000 OR LESS 3 RACES) OR $12,250 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(1) CHEDDARLUCKNXTTIME draws the rail and has proven ability against quality fillies. (6) BETTER SCRIPT comes off an encouraging runner-up finish. His late speed makes him particularly dangerous if the leaders engage in an early battle. (5) JETT OUT EARLY has been competitive in this condition. His tactical speed should allow him to secure a favorable position and remain involved throughout.

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Race 2: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $43,000) LIFETIME.

(3) SMILIN PETE has been consistently competitive since stepping up to Mohawk. McNair and a favorable inside draw is tough to ignore. (2) INTUIT BIG nearly pulled off a major upset last week, finishing second to a quality rival. Another favorable trip could put him right in the mix. (5) LYONS FIRSTBULLDOG has been holding his own against similar competition. His recent ability to race close to the pace makes him a contender for another strong finish.

Race 3: 2 & 3 YEAR OLDS NW 2 RACES OR $15,000 (ON SIRED $21,000) LIFETIME.

(4) ALOTMOREACTION was a maiden-breaking winner on October 5. There’s reason to believe he can continue improving. (8) SOUTHERN JAZZ looked sharp winning at Mohawk two starts ago and his early speed makes him a serious threat. (5) DOCS MOREAU should be more involved from this post. His previous winning effort at Mohawk demonstrates that he belongs at this level.

Race 4: NW $12,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $30,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $80,000. AE: NW $110,000 LIFETIME. AE: NW $100 IN 2026.

(1) AYEAYE CAPTAIN DEO has substantial back class despite the current form. He is dangerous when competing at a suitable level, and this appears suitable enough. (4) CODENAME CIGAR BOX comes off a strong front-stepping victory. His proven early speed and ability to sustain it make him a major threat if he can control the tempo again. (5) SECRET SOCIETY has been sharp and has form is difficult to overlook, considering his ability to race effectively on or near the lead.

Race 5: NW $7,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $14,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: N/A $1,840 P/S IN 2025-2026.

(7) MAJOR PERRY N has been racing competitively against tougher company and recently finished second to Codename Cigar Box. His strong closing ability gives him a chance to capitalize with the right trip. (6) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS finished a solid second with a nice mile last week. His tactical versatility makes him dangerous. (1) CAPTAIN FEAR NOT has taken plenty of my money, but you know his back class and strong closing kick make him a legitimate contender.

Race 6: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $50,000 (OS $62,500) LIFETIME. AE: 4 YO NW $100 IN 2026.

(7) ALCHEMY HANOVER enters in outstanding form following consecutive Mohawk victories. He has demonstrated the ability to win from different positions. (6) EVANS LEGACY nearly won on October 9, finishing a narrow second. His strong final quarters suggest he has the chance to challenge the favorite. (10) ASSISTANT COACH finished a strong runner-up to Alchemy Hanover two back and had no chance in his latest. I can see him storming from the back for a piece.

Race 7: NW $9,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $60,000.

(3) COPPERFIELD has been competitive against tougher non-winners company, including last week’s third place finish. His proven closing ability and favorable inside draw should give him an opportunity to pounce from up close. (5) JK BLACK GOLD has been extremely sharp and might get claimed soon. He remains a major threat if he reproduces his best effort. (4) PACINO HANOVER finally draws inside this week and gets a drop in class. He should provide backers with a fair chance.

Race 8: FILLIES & MARES OPEN.

(5) ABSOLUTION was a dominant winner last week after controlling the race from start to finish. Her early speed and proven class make her a serious win threat when returning to Open company. (4) LETS N JOY N comes off an impressive victory in the Open after a sharp closing kick. She is a logical candidate to repeat. (3) WISE PROFESSOR has been consistently competitive against Open company. Her early speed should allow her to establish a favorable position and remain dangerous throughout.

Race 9: NW $7,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $14,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: N/A $1,840 P/S IN 2025-2026.

(6) ASIAGO SEELSTER has been facing stronger opposition in recent starts. I can see him sprinting away from these rivals. (1) CRAZY WORLD was heavily bet in his latest and ripped off fractions that don’t usually allow horses to sustain a bid like that. What does he offer tonight? (4) BEACH TOUR should have an easier time establishing an early position because of post relief. He has quality speed on both ends of the mile.

Race 10: OPEN.

(6) CRACK SHOT comes off an impressive victory in the Open. I’ll go right back to this classy McNair trainee tonight. (7) FUSION was very sharp in his latest when given a chance on the front. He has a major turn of foot to get himself involved regardless of trip. (4) SUGAR MAN was just okay last week, but still contains enough back class and experience in high level races to make him dangerous if he can secure a favorable trip.

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Race 11: NW $2,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $9,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: N/A $975 P/S IN 2026. AE: NW $100 LAST 3 STS.

(6) GRIN AND WIN showed improvement last week, suggesting he could be returning to winning form, and a similar effort would make him dangerous against this group. (2) SOUTHSIDE EDDY has demonstrated plenty of early speed in recent starts, including an aggressive effort on October 10 when he controlled the race for a fair amount of time. (4) MAGICAL BET could capitalize if the leaders battle and falter late. Look for him to be picking up the pieces.

Race 12: NW $1,000 LAST 4 STARTS. AE: NW 2 RACES IN 2026 (MIN 8 STS). AE: NW $100 IN 2026.

(4) STATE ONE SMILEY comes into tonight in sharp form following a convincing victory at Flamboro. His recent return and ability to race effectively on the lead make him a strong contender in the finale. (1) SAUBLE ACE has shown competitive ability at this level in the past and should benefit from drawing the rail. (7) MCWICKED TIME has been finishing reasonably well against similar competition. I can see him closing for a piece.