Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 10/17

Meet Stats: 274- 875 / $1583.30 (-$166.70)
Best Bets: 44 - 78 / $141.00 (-$12.60)
Spot Plays: 13 - 80 / $108.50 (-$51.50)
Best Bet: PEMBERTON (8TH)
Spot Play: OUTLAW ACEOFSPADES (11TH)
Early Pick 5: 4,5/3,4/1,4,5,10/3/2,3,6,7 = $12.80
Late Pick 5: 3,5/1,3,5,7/3/4,9/4,7,8,9 = $12.80
Early Pick 4: 3/2,3,6,7/3,5/1,3,5,7 = $32
Late Pick 4: 4,9/7,8/1,2,5/1,9 = $24

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPERFINAL 2YO FILLIES **GTD $100,000 Pick 5**

(5) IMEXTRASPECIAL is unbeaten in sires stakes races this season including three gold wins in three tries and she has recently ramped up her late speed. She should be tough in here. (4) UP AND READY was up against it last time stalking a slow pace and she still closed ground on the choice; upset chance. (6) DASHING MUSCLE was game in defeat to the choice and she should be blasting again and sticking around for a share. (10) FOX VALLEY LIZA goes for a barn that can never be counted out but starting from the second tier I prefer to use her underneath.

Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPERFINAL 3YO FILLIES

(4) ALICORN's most recent mile was her best of the season and if she can replicate that effort here, her rivals will be racing for second. (3) LAURAS LOVE has been solid all year long as she should be the main threat. (8) ROSE RUN VICTORIA was a big winner with Jamieson in the bike in a Gold race two starts back and that teamster returns here; upset chance. (1) ALL DAY SUNSHINE should sit a decent trip here and make it into the Tri or Super.

Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPERFINAL 3YO FILLIES

(1) ROYALTY DEAL took a new life's mark while easily beating many of these last time and she gets top call here. (10) MAGIC CAPE is one of the best closers in here and she could get a good trip following the choice; using. (5) TRINA has two Gold wins and she usually gets ignored at the windows. She's another one in with a chance here. (4) SUSIES LADY is right there every race and she has been sure-gaited, too. She should be used in Tri and Super bets.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPERFINAL 2YO COLTS and GELDINGS - Pick 4

(3) LAWLESS SHADOW will be a big favorite coming off a third-place finish in the Metro and he will be tough to knock off. (7) BULLDOG HANOVER was on a roll before he went to Flamboro and broke stride and he should be an Exacta factor in here. (8) BETTOR SUN was only a couple of lengths behind the choice in the Metro and he had a worse trip. He isn't out of this, but he got no favors at the post draw; using underneath. (1) CANDY TRADER is capable of producing a big late kick. I see him completing the Tri or Super in this spot.

Race 5: NW $9,000 L5 or $16,000 L10

(3) DREAMFAIR MOXY ripped off a 1:49 3/5 mile here last week that would win this race despite him stepping up in class. The big question us whether or not he can repeat it. (2) EAST END disappointed as chalk but at this level he is always dangerous and he is likely to deploy different tactics this time which will yield a better result; using. (7) P L JACKSON is a stablemate to the choice who should be much better here with his nose back on the gate and he is the third one that I'll use on multi-race tickets. (6) EXIT SMILING should be closing for another slice in this spot.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPERFINAL 2YO COLTS and GELDINGS - Pick 5

(3) FASHION FRENZIE makes his debut for trainer Moreau and he qualified well for this racing over a track rated two seconds slow; call to upset. (5) MACHO MARTINI has been the best in the division all year and he is the obvious horse to beat. (10) EMOTIONS RICHES merits a close look for the exotics moving into a high percentage barn for this. (1) LOGAN PARK is capable of producing a strong effort if he stays flat and he could provide some exotics value here.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPERFINAL 2YO FILLIES

(5) SCARLETT HANOVER may have slowed the pace too much in the third 1/4 last time as loaded pocket sitter (7) VOELZ DELIGHT got by late. I look for the choice to turn the tables this week but will use both on multi-race tickets. (1) GAME OF SHADOWS broke the Trois Rivieres track record in her most recent start and she could upset here if she can work out a good trip. (3) TWIN B SUNKISSED has been consistent all year and she should make it into the Super again.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPERFINAL 3YO COLTS and GELDINGS

(3) PEMBERTON has shown the talent of a superstar from his second start and its hard to imagine him getting beat here. (8) HAYEK has the speed to make front then take the choice's cover and I look to him to round out the Exacta. (10) THREEFIFTYTWO was razor-sharp in victory last week but the post draw puts him at a distinct disadvantage here and I'll try to beat him out of the Exacta. (2) PORT PERRY, third to the choice last time, should be in the mix for the Tri or Super.

Race 9: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPERFINAL 3YO COLTS and GELDINGS - Pick 4

(9) TATTOO ARTIST is so good right now that the 9-hole likely won’t stop him. (4) BEAUMOND HANOVER raced great when second to the choice after leaving from the dreaded 7-hole in London and he will likely look to beat him out of the pocket tonight. (1) INDICTABLE HANOVER got back on track with a nice win vs. lesser but this is a whole new ballgame and I see him finishing on the edges. (2) RHYTHM IN MOTION raced well at London while setting big splits and he should be a contender for a share here.

Race 10: PREFERRED HANDICAP

(7) ROCKME ROLLME moves inside a couple of post positions and off the worst post after getting picked off by a tripped-out pocket-sitter last week. He gets my nod here. (8) POINTS NORTH beat the choice off that nice trip but he is sharp and he remains a viable contender. (9) MATTICULOUS GB is right there every week but he could be in for a rough ride from post 9 this week; small share predicted. (4) PRETTY HANDSOME should improve with post relief; consider using in Tris and Supers.

Race 11: NW $19,000 L5 or $30,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000

A step up in class and move to the worst post was no problem for (1) OUTLAW ACEOFSPADES and he gets top call here stepping up again for a white-hot barn. (2) WHEELS ON FIRE should be the main danger again likely looking to go down the road one more time; using. (5) NICKLE BAG is always dangerous when he takes this kind of class drop and he is hard to leave out of the late Pick 4. (3) MONGOLIAN HERO N should go better with his nose on the gate and find his way into the Super.

Race 12: NW $11,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 AE: OPT CLAIMING $30,000 - HI 5 MANDATORY PAYOUT

(9) TRACEUR HANOVER takes a big class drop, was Roy's choice over three others and he should win if he gets a reasonable trip from out there. He will be used in the 1-2 position on my ticket. (1) ROCKIN N TALKIN has had some excuses in his past couple of starts and he did pass most of the field on August 29th to finish 2nd in a race that also had a mandatory High-5 payout. He has some upset appeal leaving from the inside. (7) POINTOMYGRANSON dropped and crushed and he moves back up in razor-sharp condition. He does not need to be on the engine to be effective, either. (11) ROYAL RENEGADE is a horse that always seems to be advancing and he hasn't missed the top five in a while. He is a strong contender to hit the ticket. (5) CARSONS SHADOW is in improving form and he races well for driver Jamieson. He's another to consider using underneath.
20-Cent High-5 Ticket: 1,9/1,7,9,11/1,2,5,7,9,11/1,2,5,7,9,11/ALL = $100.80