Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 10/16

Meet Stats: 303 - 879 / $1,654.90 (-$103.10)

Best Bets: 44 - 80 / $154.00 (-$6.00)

Spot Plays: 24 - 81 / $172.80 (+$12.80)

Best Bet: PROHIBITION LEGAL (2ND)

Spot Play: YOU WILL BE QUEEN (10TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,3,5/7/7,8/1,3,4/6,8,9 = $10.80

Late Pick 5: 2,3,7/1,3/1/1,4,5/3,6,8 = $10.80

Early Pick 4: 1,3,4/6,8,9/2,3,7/1,3 = $54

Late Pick 4: 1,4,5/3,6,8/7/4,8,9 = $27

Race 1: NW $5,200 L5 or $10,000 L10 **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(3) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT handles these on his best day and I'll gamble that the one tightener he had last week combined with a class drop and a good post draw will lead to a win tonight. (5) PLAY JET RAY comes back quick after just missing on Monday night and that's a move that I like; using. (1) STOLEN ART was great winning in the slop racing one level below this one two starts back, then not so good racing a class higher than this last time. He seems to fit better at this level and he isn't out of this. (6) GRAND POOBAH has improving form and he should take another share here.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPER FINAL 2YO FILLIES

(7) PROHIBITION LEGAL has shown many times over that there are no Ontario-sired fillies that can go with her and there is no reason to think anything changes here. She will be around 1 to 5 on the board, however. Stablemate (3) SILVER LABEL had her unbeaten streak ended by the choice last week. You are probably looking at an Exacta that pays less than $4 with these two. (1) LOVE THAT SMILE figures to land in a good spot early and stick around for another small share. (8) BALANCE figures to be in the Super again in a race where it is likely impossible to find any value.

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Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPER FINAL 2YO FILLIES

The only race that (8) ADARE CASTLE has lost at this track was to the mighty Venerable in the Peaceful Way final and she raced well in defeat. The chalk parade likely continues here. (7) MISCHEVIOUS ROSE gave the choice a race last week and she has upset possibilities here in a race that could feature more action up front. I'll use her in the Pick 5. (10) DABRA DAY is on a roll and she should be blasting here, but I see her finishing in the bottom of the exotics. (2) GRACE should be good for another small share in this spot.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPER FINAL 3YO FILLIES - Pick 4

(4) BET ON BECKY recaptured her two-year-old form at the perfect time, now she goes for a $225K Superfinal purse in with a real shot. I think there will be some value here, too, with the filly from the rail expected to get hammered at the windows. (1) SCARLETT HANOVER got the perfect tightener vs. older last week and she is the one to fear. (3) DABARNDAWGSWATCHIN has been opportunistic more than once this year so far and she will be the one rolling by late if the top two hook up in a destructive mid-race battle. (8) VOELZ DELIGHT will be put into this race tonight, unlike last week, but I prefer to use her underneath.

Race 5: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPER FINAL 3YO COLTS and GELDINGS

Interesting race with the best ones lined up on the outside. (9) LOGAN PARK outkicked (8) FASHION FRENZIE last time, producing some sizzling late speed in the fog and he gets the call to repeat. If you are looking for an upsetter, (6) LEXUS KODY is worth considering. He had no shot stalking a 58 1/2 last time and he could be positioned better tonight. I'll use him as a price option on multi-race tickets. (4) PUBLICITY SEEKER is another that should be leaving much quicker this time and he can take a share.

Race 6: NW $16,000 L5 or $31,500 L10 or NW $125,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000 - Pick 5

Driver Macdonald got (2) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER to rate and stalk last week and he sailed past the leader in the lane. He gets Drury in the bike now and he is in tougher stepping up to face some class droppers, but that will help keep his price viable; slight nod. The choice's stablemate (7) POINTS NORTH is always a threat at this level and the 7-hole should be a good post for him; using. (3) SPEEDY DOMINIC A fits well here having won at this level two starts back and he is hard to leave off multi-race tickets. (1) EAST END is another dropper that figures but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPER FINAL 2YO COLTS and GELDINGS

(1) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS hasn't lost in OSS Golds this year and he has shown he can win off virtually any trip. He is the one to beat tonight. (3) BETTERHAVEMYMONEY goes for a barn that has sent them all razor-sharp into these types of races all year long and he is the second one that I'll use on multi-race tickets. (2) ERINWOOD YVES strategy will be no secret here tonight. He is heading for the front and he will try to go down the road. If he can get a breather, he will be dangerous. (10) MAGICAL ARTHUR is having a great year but from out there he is likely to get a smaller share tonight.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPER FINAL 2YO COLTS and GELDINGS

(1) DULY RESOLVED gave Venerable all she wanted in the Mohawk Million so it's hard to imagine him getting beat here in a sires stake. (7) STAR POWER HANOVER got a brutal trip in that same race and he did beat the choice in a Gold race on 9/18. He got a perfect trip that night, however. I'll use him underneath tonight. (4) TWIN B ARCHIE has been a solid player in this division all year and he should be part of the exotics here. (2) KIPPER WHIPR SNIPR can get a good following trip here. He's worth a look for the Super.

Race 9: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPER FINAL 3YO COLTS and GELDINGS - Pick 4

(3) BULLDOG HANOVER was reserved early last time and he produced a 52 4/5 back 1/2 which should have him primed perfectly for this Super Final; top call. (4) POWERTRAIN is the hot horse but he got things all his own way last time. For 250K there should be more racing tonight. He is capable but also unlikely to be left alone on the lead for the entire mile again. (5) DESPERATE MAN will be involved earlier here and you wonder if he can get the same 2nd-over trip that won him the North America Cup; using. (1) TWIN B HEART THROB is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics with Tetrick in the bike.

Race 10: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD SUPER FINAL 3YO FILLIES

(3) YOU WILL BE QUEEN's Gold win on 9/28 here at 43 to 1 will likely be regarded as a fluke by most, but her 27-flat kicker sticks out and there should be some vulnerable favorites in here. I'll give her the nod to repeat. (6) UP AND READY raced well in that race only to be nailed by the choice late and I'll use her in the late multi-race bets. (8) HP MAMA B is the divisional leader to this point but she comes off a sick scratch. If there is a time to take a swing against her, this is likely it. (2) IMEXTRASPECIAL should get a decent trip racing near the front and take a slice.

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Race 11: PREFERRED

(7) WARRAWEE VITAL went one of the toughest trips of the year at this track last week and he still prevailed. I can't see him getting a worse trip in this seven-horse field, so he gets top call again. (6) ENAVANT raced big but he couldn't get to the choice late. He is an obvious Exacta factor again. (5) WHEELS ON FIRE has to face the top two again and they are just better at the present time; small share predicted. Super mare (3) SO MUCH MORE is in deep against the boys here. I see her passing a few late to take a small slice.

Race 12: NW $8,000 L5 or $18,500 L10 or NW $65,000 LT

(4) UNDRTHSOUTHRNSUN N was overtaken by the heavy chalk in a 26 3/5 third 1/4 and he remained game and was coming on again late. He should have a good chance in this field tonight. (9) POINTOMYGRANSON lacked room at a critical point in the lane and he wasn't persevered on once it was certain he couldn't get a check. He can be right there tonight if he gets a reasonable trip. (8) PRICELESS BEACH was part of the blanket finish and he beat both of the top two choices. He is another to consider for the late Pick 4. (7) MODERN ROCK should improve on the class drop but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot. (3) J M JACK OF HEARTS should be good for another small share here.