Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 10/14

Top Pick Stats: 483 - 1429 / $2,557.40 (-$300.60)

Best Bets: 77 - 135 / $265.90 (-$4.10)

Spot Plays: 24 - 137 / $150.20 (-$123.80)

Best Bet: POINTS NORTH (11TH)

Spot Play: THE GREEK FREAK (12TH)

Early Pick 5: 7,9/4/4,5/1,6,9/1,2,5,6 = $9.60

Middle Pick 5: 1,9/1,2,4,8/4,6,7/1,8/3,4 = $19.20

Late Pick 5: 1,8/3,4/1,4/4,6/2,5,6,8 = $12.80

Early Pick 4: 1,6,9/1,2,5,6/1,9/4,8 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 3,4/1,4/4,6/2,5,6,8 = $6.40

Race 1: 2YO and 3YO colts and geldings NW2 or $15,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(7) TROPHY TAKER showed some talent in his debut firing home quickly and he followed that up with a powerful maiden win. This is tougher, but he should be up to it. Call to repeat. (9) KAPTAIN KARLOS took a mark of 1:50 flat in his third start in Kentucky and while those conditions were likely perfect for a fast mile, he still stacks up well vs. these; using. (1) WICKED PRINCE had no chance from post 10 in the Grassroots final. He can land a share vs. these starting from the rail. (10) LIKE A GLOVE won a Grassroots Semi-Final then did not race in the $75K Final which is a bit of a red flag to me. I'll play to beat him here.

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Race 2: FREE FOR ALL

(4) TATTOO ARTIST is in incredible form right now and he is the one to beat here as he seeks a sixth straight win. (2) JIMMY FREIGHT looked terrific in his return race, ambushing the leader with a quick brush on the final turn, but he will likely have his hands full with the choice tonight; Exacta factor. (1) EMMETTS BUDDY flies home every week and he should be good for another share here. (3) POWERTRAIN will likely be fighting for scraps again in this spot.

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Race 3: 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

(4) NEW SHOOTER got an impossible parked out trip last week now he gets needed post relief. He should rebound in this spot. (5) TALK RACY TO ME is clearly one of the best in here and he would be very tough if he could come close to replicating his effort three starts back; using. (8) BETTOR ON ICE finished ahead of the choice but he got a much better trip. He can take another share here. (1) BETTORHOLDONTIGHT can close for a slice if he brings his best effort tonight.

Race 4: 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $45,000 LT AE: 3YO 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $50,000 - Pick 4

(9) ACE OF ACES has had a disappointing sophomore campaign to this point, but this is a good spot for him, and Macdonald will send him from the wide post; top call. (6) REIGN SUPREME, like the choice, exits tougher Grassroots races and he is an obvious threat here, likely racing from close range. (1) DAY TRADER cruised vs. easier but he is sharp and dangerous, and he wouldn't be a big surprise here if he doubled up. (5) BEACH TOUR likely won't pass them all again this week, but he should pass enough rivals to land in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 5: F&M NW $15,650 L5 AE: NW $70,000 in 2023

(6) HUNTRESS won at a similar level three starts back at Yonkers and she goes for the leading trainer for this local debut. She is one of a few that can win here. (5) MYSTIFYING gets McNair back for this second start at this level. She should be the one to fend off late. (2) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP couldn't get to a stubborn well-meant leader last week, but she tried hard right to the wire. She is in the mix at this level. (1) AWESOME HILL steps up off a win but she figures to be sharper here returning quicker. She is another in with a chance.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES - Pick 5

(1) RIGHTEOUS RESOLVE is the one to beat in this division but no lock. I'll use her and (9) BELIEVE U ME on multi-race tickets expecting the latter to be sharper coming back quicker. (6) BARONESS HILL gets off the rail and that improves her chances, but I prefer to use her underneath. (2) MASS HYSTERIA wasn’t far behind the choice last week and she should be good for another share here.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES

(8) MIST AMBER has developed a big late kick and she should get a setup here at a decent price; call to upset. (4) ONE LAST WISH got a useful tightener in last week and she figures to be much more aggressive tonight; using. (2) MOMENTARY CONTROL comes off a nice two move win and she is another in with a decent chance in a good betting race. (1) SAVETHELASTDANCE races better closing than leading and she should be heard from late here.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 3 COLTS and GELDINGS

(4) GHOSTLY CASPER is peaking at the right time and Borth is driving him aggressively with confidence. I'll side with him at what should be a square price. (7) HASTY BID wouldn't let the choice go by last week and he is the one to beat here. (6) OSCEOLA draws better and that gives him a chance here. Any of these three can win depending on trip and pace. (3) THE HAZLETON is always around the money. He can take a slice here.

Race 9: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 3 COLTS and GELDINGS - Pick 5

(8) STOCKADE SEELSTER missed four weeks, raced first up over a wet track and was likely short last week. I think he blasts here and dares his rivals to try to pass. (1) MOMENT IS HERE carved out some big fractions and paid the price late. Tetrick is down to drive, and he can be dangerous here, likely working out an easier trip; using. (4) BETTER B BOLD is hot, and he will be flying late again. I prefer to use him underneath this time, but he is capable. (2) WHATCHULOOKIN AT is another that is peaking for this $300K final and he should take a share at a minimum.

Race 10: F&M NW $8,200 L5 $21,750 L10 or NW 7 LT - Pick 4

(4) GOUDAWON paced a sub-54 back 1/2 beating easier and Macdonald sticks. I'll call her to repeat expecting a square price on the class jump. (3) SETTN A PRECEDENT is an obvious threat on the drop, and she looks ready to roll based on her qualifier on 10/06. (8) TWIST LITTLE GIRL is razor sharp and Drury has been a good partner for her. She is in the mix again in this field. (5) SHOOT THE WHISKEY comes off a nice effort at Flamboro where she stayed game racing uncovered in a quick back 1/2. She should be part of the Tri or Super.

Race 11: NW $14,000 L5 or $18,250 L10 AE: NW $100,000 LT

(1) POINTS NORTH drops and gets Drury back and I see him stalking these then pouncing first-over on the last turn; top call. (4) UNCLE SHANK A also drops, and he finished with broken equipment last time which could explain why he was so far back at the wire; using. (7) STOP THE SHOOTIN should get a solid pace to track, and he figures to close late for another slice. (5) ROCKME ROLLME got a good trip, and he had every chance to get past the leader last week, but he couldn’t bridge the gap. He performs best when he can set up shop on the front and control the race and I don't see that scenario playing out here; using underneath.

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Race 12: NW $23,500 L5 or $39,500 L10

The projected pace scenario in this race sets up for a stalker/closer and (4) THE GREEK FREAK fits the bill; top call. (6) POSEIDON SEELSTER arrived ready from New York, and he smoked a field once class lower than this one. He should be a big threat right back. (7) LIVINTHEBEACHLIFE comes off two solid efforts in a row and getting off the rail here gives him more options from a trip standpoint. He is another to consider for the late Pick 4. (10) MOMAS SON BYRNE drops but this is no easy spot and from post 10 he will likely be limited to a share.

Race 13: NW $8,500 L5 or $16,450 L10

(8) LEGION SEELSTER is no stranger to Mohawk Park, having won several times here in past seasons. He arrives from Ottawa sharp, and he fits well in this spot. He gets the nod. (2) AMERICAN HISTORY was a runaway on the lead last week. He gets to drop and gets a new pilot tonight. He should be a threat racing from close range. (6) MAD MAN HILL was denied the lead when he tried a middle move last week and he raced great in defeat. He could be the value of the race stepping up in class here. (5) SHADOW IN RED likely closes for a share on the class drop. (3) COMMANDING OFFICER dropped and popped but this is a much tougher field than he beat then. Small share predicted.