Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 10/12

Top Pick Stats: 528 - 1556 / $2,838.40 (-$273.60)

Best Bets: 75 - 143 / $234.10 (-$54.90)

Spot Plays: 34 - 140 / $319.30 (+$39.30)

Best Bet: CHANTILLY (3RD)

Spot Play: CRACK SHOT (7TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,5/5/3/6,7/1,3,9 = $2.40

Middle Pick 5: 3/6,8/4/3,8/2,5,6,7 = $3.20

Late Pick 5: 4/3,8/2,5,6,7/2,3,4/2,3,4,5,6 = $24

Early Pick 4: 6,7/1,3,9/3/6,8 = $2.40

Late Pick 4: 3,8/2,5,6,7/2/2,3,4,5,6 = $8

Race 1: NW $14,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $31,250 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. AE: OS 4 YR OLDS NW $160,000 LIFE. AE: NW $100 IN 2024 **Gtd. $75,000 Pick 5**

(5) HP LIS SHADOW drops and gets Macdonald back and an all-out speed try is likely here; top call in the first of a dozen dashes. (1) SOMETIME SOMEWHERE got stuck in the 10-hole twice since getting claimed out of a lifetime best score three starts back. He should improve sharply here, and he is the other one that I’ll use in the early Pick 5. (3) COLD CREEK QUESO should be better here returning quicker, but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot. (7) MAPPOS LION will likely close late to take a share on the class drop.

[DRF HARNESS: Get Harness Eye PPs for this card]

Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES

(5) MONALISHI has been the queen of this division all year long and she should put a bow on her campaign with a Super Final win tonight. (6) LIL SWEET is only a one-time winner, but she gave the choice a race on 9/30 and this improving filly is the obvious alternative if you are looking for an upset. (1) FOXY AMEE will likely sit and rally this time starting from the rail; using underneath. Grassroots final winner (3) TELLERS CHOICE should be good for a share here stepping up to Golds.

Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES

(3) CHANTILLY has dominated all year, and she will be 1 to 9 here to finish off her year undefeated. (7) MACAPELO SEELSTER raced well when 2nd to the choice at huge odds and she can add some value to the exotics here. (2) WICKED N SINGLE should pass some rivals late in this mile and she can be part of the Tri. (9) BARB LAHEY is improving, and she is worth using underneath at a big price tonight.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES - Pick 4

This race should be a showdown between (6) WILLYS HOME RUN and (7) R LIZA. I’ll give the nod to the former who seems to be a bit better as the season comes to an end. The latter predictable ducked on 9/30 coming off a sick scratch and with this $300K final coming up. She will be more aggressive this time and she is the obvious danger. (3) LOVE THOSE LEGS made an incredible move in the second 1/4 to make front in the Grassroots final and she continued on to seal the deal on the engine. She faces much tougher here in the top two choices and she likely rounds out the Tri. (2) NO ONE can sit a trip again and take another slice.

Race 5: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS

(9) YOU GOT IT KEMP lost his debut race then reeled off four Gold wins. He is the one to beat here. (1) GALEN ERSO hasn’t been able to beat the choice yet, but he raced well against him, and nothing stays the same forever. Drawing better than his rival gives him a puncher’s chance. (3) WENDELL BLUE CHIP steps up after winning the Grassroots final but he is improved, and he should be in the exotics mix tonight. (4) CHICAGO HALL has taken shares in two thirds of his starts, and he is another to consider for the bottom of the exotics.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES - Pick 5

(3) IT’S A LOVE THING makes her third start back since a sick scratch on 9/7 and if she is back on her game, her rivals are racing for 2nd here. (6) COLLUSION HANOVER has been on fire recently and there are no secrets to her strategy. She will go as fast and as far as she can on the engine, and she can be dangerous here if the choice doesn’t fire her best shot. (5) ODDS ON PLATINUM has been good all year and she is in the mix for a good share here; using underneath. (7) BLAZING BELLE tripped out and beat the choice last time. I don’t see that happening again; small share predicted.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS

(8) CRACK SHOT was patiently driven on 10/3 and he fired home with a 26 kicker. He will be more aggressive here and he is the one to beat in this final. (6) ALLSTAR MANIAC was a bit short at 3 to 5 in his first start in six weeks. He can be better here, and he would be no surprise. (1) STERLING CHOICE showed come grit fighting back to win last time but he benefited from a slow pace that likely won’t be repeated here. I’ll use him underneath. (2) SMILING DANCER should be closing late and he can land in the bottom of the tri or Super.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 5

(4) PAQUET is 2 for 2 in sires stakes starts and he dominated in both. He will probably prove tough to beat tonight. (3) WAYS N MEANS is one of the best ones in here and I think he gets a more aggressive steer tonight; Exacta factor. (9) MASSTERCRAFT has been sharp for several weeks and he will use his good gate speed to blast out for position. He should stick around for a share. (2) WHAT ABOUT ELMO capitalized on a good trip to take a new life’s mark and he should be good for a share here.

Race 9: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 4

(8) NIJINSKY adds Lasix after choking in his Jug Elim. Assuming all is well with him, he is hard to go against in a restricted sire stake. (3) CENTURY KOMODO has been really good in his past two starts and he is worth using on multi-race tickets at what should be a big price. (2) WIKIPEDIA paced the final 1/8th like his tail was on fire to win Gold on 9/26. He should be part of the Tri here at a minimum. (1) STORM SHADOW is capable of better than he showed in his last two starts and the time off may be beneficial to him; using underneath.

Race 10: NW $25,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $100,000

(2) REDWOOD HANOVER missed three weeks between starts now he returns in a week. He will likely be more aggressive now and he gets the nod. (5) WRITE ME A ROSE was picked off late while finishing ahead of the choice. He is the one to beat here. (6) P L OZZY is capable of better than he has shown recently. He is worth a look for multi-race tickets at a price. (7) PACINO HANOVER drops, and he is another possibility in a race where it makes sense to spread.

[DRF HARNESS: Sign up for our FREE DRF Harness Digest Newsletter]

Race 11: NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: N/A $2,150 P/S IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS)

(2) TYGA HANOVER raced tough first up against a winner that stole a cheap opening 1/2 and he fell just short while finishing with broken equipment. I’ll give him a slight nod in a tough race. (4) WILDRIVERBUMBLEBEE should get a major boost here getting Macdonald back and he is unlikely to go off at his 10 to 1 morning line quote; using. (3) DELIGHTFUL LEADER got on a roll in the Pop Up series. He can win on the lead or from the pocket and he is another in with a shot here. (10) LEGION SEELSTER would be rated higher if he drew better. From out there, I’ll use him underneath.

Race 12: HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $15,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF LAST 3 STARTS. (W/O $13,850 LAST 5 STARTS N/E)

(2) COLIN YOUR BLUFF was bet like he couldn’t lose last time, and he easily converted. This is a tougher spot, but he is sharp, and he can be up to the challenge. (3) SOUTHWIND SAMBUCCA failed at 1 to 2 last time but he went too fast too early. I can see him looking for a trip this time and he can be a threat; using. (4) RESPECT OUR FLAG fires 27 kickers regularly and there might be enough speed in here to set it up for him. He is a possibility for late multi-race tickets. (5) LARCENY was a 1:50 winner only three starts back. He should be passing some rivals late here; price look. (6) NEEDABANKLOAN has been chasing killer Shark Week out west, but he has missed six weeks. The tote board should tell us if he is live or not.