Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 10/11

Top Pick Stats: 271/787 (-$249.20)

Best Bets: 35/72 ($13.70); Spot Plays: 15/72 (-$35.20)

Best Bet: CRACK SHOT (Race 9)

Spot Play: FULL OF COLORS (Race 11)

Early Pick-5: 1,2/5,6/6,8/3,4/3,8 $6.40

Middle Pick-5: 2,5/1/1,8/5/5,6 $1.60

Late Pick-5: 5/5,6/6/3,5,6/2,5,8 $3.60

Race 1: NW $9,250 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: N/A $2,935 P/S IN 2025.

(1) BLUE HUNT was handled ultra-aggressively when last seen with Ed Hensley in the bike. It was at this level, too. He has been trying to hold his own against Open company, but it is just a little too tough for him. I’ll count on a big effort tonight. (2) WANNABEABIGSTAR is a tricky type to gauge on most weeks. His style makes him susceptible to coming up short on the win end, but this is a group of fringe level upper conditioned horses in my opinion. I think he will be a major player. (3) FORTIFY fired his fastball last week from the outside, but was picked off in the late stages. Can he do it again? The post switch helps, but I’ll use him underneath.

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES OPEN 2.

(5) ABSOLUTION has proven herself as the top mare of this bunch right now. She has been excellent in her last few starts and is hard to pick against. (6) GRIT N GRACE just got picked off by Absolution but produced another strong mile in her quest to reclaim her queen status. Her gate speed makes her very dangerous. (2) CAVIAR N CRACKERS has tailed off from what she was in the early parts of summer. Albeit, it was going to be hard to keep the winning ways going, but she has been disappointing. I’ll use her underneath tonight.

Race 3: 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(8) I LOVE THIS BAR found himself on the lead almost by default in his second career start. He didn’t need to beat many rivals to the punch, and a middle half breather put him in a great spot. He was outsprinted by one rival in the stretch, but he raced well, and can do so again if put in play. (6) OVER BET looked smoother in his second career start. More importantly, he didn’t make a miscue. Top connections should have him stepping forward with each start. (2) CHOW FOR NOW could be a horse to pounce on in a couple of weeks. His return qualifier was fine to get him back to action. He showed signs of being a winner sooner rather than later before a sick scratch resulted in some time off.

Race 4: FILLIES & MARES, 2 & 3 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW $15,000 (ON SIRED $23,250) LIFETIME.

(4) WHOA BLACK BETTY was a strong winner in her career debut. She moved first over, then tucked back into the wide pocket, and was under a snug hold by James Macdonald as she paced under the wire. This is another filly that should improve under top connections. (3) LYONS TRINA had some solid tries against a Stallion Series group that proved to be decent. Her first start in Canada couldn’t have been any better. She looms as a main threat here. (9) SHOWMETHEMONEY DEO was hammered down to odds on and raced like it. She made a first over move and went on to get the win. She draws worse tonight, but should offer the right price if you like her.

Race 5: FILLIES & MARES, NW $12,950 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $28,500 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: NW $50,000 IN 2025.

(3) ANGOSTURA HANOVER gets a big post switch after storming down the center of the track to finish second behind (8) SO MUCH MORE, who is unbeatable when she races like how she did last week. The former is wildly overdue for a win, which is not a handicapping angle, but she should provide a square price when compared to the reborn former queen of the Preferred. (5) TELLS ON A ROLL gets a needed drop from the top level. Her early speed should get her in a spot to be competitive.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES.

(5) FOXY AMEE should provide a square number in the first Super Final of the night. Her most recent try at the Gold level was a sharp second when sitting close. Others are likely to show gate speed, but I find this similar to a Highlandstarburst situation from Mohawk Million night. She comes off a sharp win against easier company, but has the talent to pull the upset if she brings her best. (2) STORMONT BEAUTIFUL has had an excellent season, and made the most of Monalishi’s break last week. She completely drew away from rivals, showing that she is a major threat to take down the big pot if she doesn’t get in her own way. When (9) MONALISHI is right, she is the best filly in this division. That has not come to fruition as much as the connections, or her backers, would like. Add in a wide post draw tonight, and it makes her an even trickier proposition.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES.

Well, that was quick. It took (1) CHANTILLY one start to get back to her rightful place as the top of this division. She looked amazing doing so. Play against her at your own risk. (8) OUTTATHISWORLD DEO will probably be close to a triple digit price, but at her best, she can produce a vicious final quarter that can put her in contention to finish best of the rest. Chaos is the only way to make money in a race like this. (2) MILLIE MAY HANOVER has slowly but surely reached the seven figure mark this year with underneath finishes in the big dances. I give full credit to her connections for continuing to give her chances. I’ll use her underneath again tonight and look for her to add to that total.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS.

(8) P L SPENCER has handled any kind of trip thrown at him this year, and has blossomed to the tune of nine wins in just 15 starts this season. He is the logical candidate to take home this Super Final. (1) MANFORCE was nowhere to be found after the race started last week, but that can be chalked up to him having a bad post. He draws inside tonight and feels like a type that could knife between horses late to get up and add some value to exotics. (10) LMC WAGON WHEEL lost to P L Spencer on the square last week, and now will likely need a multiple move effort to take down this field tonight. He has plenty of staying power, but I’m not sure about a win from all the way out there.

Race 9: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD SUPER FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS.

(5) CRACK SHOT offered a juicy $6.80 on a win ticket after getting an aggressive steer from Doug McNair. He drew away from his rivals and now gets away from the rail. I’ll give him the nod to bring home the big pot. (6) ALLSTAR MANIAC was not in top form last week, but that was to be expected in my opinion, considering he hadn’t raced in over a month. I would expect him to be tighter tonight and be a main player. (7) TIME PASSER was ridiculously good last week when unleashed on the front. The further they went, the more he won by. He will have to class up against the toughest Glamour Boys, but he can get a piece.

Race 10: OPEN 2.

(6) CALICOJACK HANOVER was aggressively handled last week and was able to secure a pocket trip behind Nijinsky who made a delayed move to the front. He was left chasing that rival in the stretch, but didn’t let anyone else by. He is racing extremely well right now and deserves top billing. (5) REMEMBER THE ALAMO had a lot more staying power than I thought he would provide, but he took the support that said he would be good. He is sharp off the car and could easily be first to the front. (4) UNCLE SHANK A was unable to get a check last week when racing from well off the pace. I would expect him to sit closer to the leaders and try to work an inside trip to get a piece.

Race 11: 2 & 3 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW $15,000 (ON SIRED $18,750) LIFETIME.

(6) FULL OF COLORS was in a tough spot when racing after a month off. He drew the outside post against Figment and took back to last. That was a perfect tightener for him in my opinion, and I think he could pull off the upset. (7) FIGMENT was expected to win last week after producing a sharp second behind a monster who shipped in from Rideau. His off the pace style could get him into trouble, although he is a talented son of Shadow Play who can win again. (4) COLD CREEK PANTERA was in way too tough last week and immediately lost his cover when moving to the outside. I would expect him to rebound and get a piece.

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Race 12: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $50,000 (OS $82,000) LIFETIME. AE: 3 YEAR OLDS NW 2 RACES LAST 4 STARTS.

(3) SNACK ATTACK is a horse that I haven’t been sold on this year, but he could end up just being faster than these types. This group has not been the most consistent this season; I would expect support to flock to the new shooter. (5) LYONS FRANKY J is a horse I want to try again, but he hung in the stretch and had to settle for second. He has staying power when grinding on the outside, but could be hanging late again. (6) TH KAY C CRUNCH is having a disappointing season all things considered, but had a sharp win two starts ago when aggressively handled. If he sits a pocket trip behind the #3, we could see a strong effort despite a month off.

Race 13: NW $7,550 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $12,000 LAST 8 STARTS AE: N/A $2,085 P/S IN 2025.

(2) TROSA A can be forgiven for his last start; He was cooked after the draw. Leading driver J-Mac hops back in the bike, and he gets a major post switch. I think he can produce a big effort against this group. (5) P L OLIVER is not a horse that you don’t usually see at Mohawk’s upper level, but he got a solid tightener under his belt last week and has some early speed that he can use if Thiessen wants to. (8) LAMBORGHINI LOU made a nice sustained rally to get into contention and finish in the money. That was a nice effort in his return to the big track. If he steps forward and finds a live helmet, he could be a player in tonight’s finale.