Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 9/30

Top Pick Stats: 516 - 1522 / $2,794.80 (-$235.90)

Best Bets: 73 - 141 / $229.30 (-$52.70)

Spot Plays: 33 - 139 / $316.40 (+$38.40)

Best Bet: MONALISHI (1ST)

Spot Play: COLIN YOUR BLUFF (10TH)

Early Pick 5: 2/1,2/8,9/4,5/2,6,7 = $4.80

Late Pick 5: 2/1,3/1,8/5,6,8/1,5,8 = $7.20

Early Pick 4: 4,5/2,6,7/2/1,3 = $2.40

Late Pick 4: 1,3/1,8/5,6,8/1,5,8 = $7.20

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 5. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES **Gtd. $75,000 Pick 5**

(2) MONALISHI was first up in the Mohawk Million racing against some top colts and that was a tough chore for her. She is back in against sires stakes fillies now and she should dominate. (8) MEDLEY SEELSTER, stablemate to the choice, is on a nice roll and Jamieson has been a good partner for her. If her stablemate brings her best race, she will likely be racing for 2nd, however. (7) FOXY AMEE is better than she showed last time, and she will likely get a more aggressive steer here and land a share. (3) SPRITE SEELSTER raced okay first up vs. Medley Seelster and she can land in the bottom of the exotics here.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 5. 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES

(2) KINNDER HOTBLOOD has compiled a nice record this year and she comes back fresh here with the favorites perhaps showing some chinks in their armor. I’ll call her to notch the upset. (1) WILLYS HOME RUN looked good closing for 2nd in a Grand Circuit race two starts back then she blew up at the start in her last start. She will contend here if she stays flat. (4) R LIZA was unquestionably the best in this division earlier this year, but she comes in off a sick scratch and three straight losses. I’ll play to beat her tonight. (3) P L RAINBOW DASH should sit a good trip and land in the Super.

Race 3: CLM HDCP $30,000 to $40,000

(9) TREACHEROUS TOM was first up in an insanely fast race where the leader just kept pacing faster. There should be a more even pace in here, and I’ll give him the nod. (8) SWEET DEISEL sat the pocket and finished ahead of the choice, and he should be the main threat here. (3) FROWNIES MIRACLE left it all on the track last week taking a new lifetime mark when claimed from Budd. I feel that he will regress to the mean here and take a slice this time. (4) BROOKDALE MIKI arrives from New York with a 0 for 26 record this year, but his recent efforts are good, and he should be in the exotics mix.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 5. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 4

(4) GALEN ERSO has won three Gold legs and he looks best here. He should prove hard to chase down on the lead. (5) YOU GOT IT KEMP is unbeaten in Gold races, and while I don’t love that he broke in his qualifier on 9/20, he should be the main threat. (9) SHUTTER GREEN is in great form, but he is likely third best if the top two behave. (8) CHICAGO HALL should have beaten that maiden field with the trip he got on 9/17. A small share is likely his ceiling.

Race 5: Horses that have started for a purse of $9K or less in 1 of L3 W/O $11,250 L5 N/E. AE: NW $2,195 LAST 3 STARTS

(6) BAD EYE BILL comes in off an improved effort and McNair chose him over two others in here. His best race beats these and he gets top billing. (2) DR JOE exits a fast race where his good late kick was neutralized. He should be a factor late in this mile and he is the other one that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. (7) NIGHTIME DANCER exits the same race as Dr Joe, and he should be better in here. He is in the exotics mix. (9) HOWYOUPLAY THEGAME shoots for the threepeat but draws widest. A small share is likely his ceiling tonight.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 5. 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 5

The last time (2) WAYS N MEANS raced in an Ontario Sires Stake; he was a winner of the mid-season Gold Final. He stayed sharp recently facing some elders in conditioned races and this is not a tough field. He will be a single for me tonight. (3) SCINTILLATING TOM has been part of the Exacta in 11 of 14 starts this year and he should continue that trend here. (5) MYRETIREMENTDREAM was in over his head in the Canadian Trotting Classic. He should go better here and land in the bottom of the exotics. (4) FABULOUS FREDDIE can close for a share if he stays flat tonight.

Race 7: NW $16,000 L5 AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. AE: N/A $2,860 P/S IN 2023-24 - Pick 4

(3) YO MISTER drops into a good spot here and he should get an aggressive steer from Macdonald vs. these; top call. (1) GIGONDAS is another dropper that rates highly here and I don’t mind the rail post for him because he has the speed to get position leaving the gate; using. (5) PHOENIX is sure-gaited and consistent with 18 shares in 31 starts this year. He should be in the exotics mix again tonight. I’m not sure what makes (6) RICKY RESOLVE the morning line favorite in this spot. I’ll play to beat him.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 5. 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS

(8) PAQUET acquitted himself well in the Canadian Trotting Classic and he should get the job done here facing Ontario breds tonight. (1) MASSTERCRAFT is improving as the season progresses and he could offer some value on multi-race tickets considering he is the fourth choice in the morning line; using. (3) WILLOWTIME has been flashing the speed that made him so good at two and he can blast and last for a share here. (6) R PEAKY BLINDERS comes off an impressive win, but these are tougher. I’ll use him on the bottom here.

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Race 9: PREFERRED

(8) OSCEOLA was victimized by the snail’s pace cut by Logan Park last week. With that rival not in here, I think Osceola takes control early and leads all the way. (5) AMIGO VOLO won at this level a couple of times here in the spring. He is capable with the right trip; using. (6) PEMBERTON closed some ground on the choice in the stretch last week and he can be an exotics factor here. (4) ROBERTSON DE has done nothing wrong since arriving in this country and he figures to be part of the Tri or Super despite stepping up in class.

Race 10: Horses that have started for a purse of $9K or less in 1 of L3 W/O $11,250 L5 N/E. AE: NW $2,195 LAST 3 STARTS

(5) COLIN YOUR BLUFF shipped to Flamboro and raced for a $7,500 purse which qualifies him for the conditions of this race. He gets a driver upgrade tonight and top billing here. (1) SELF MADE fits well vs. these shipping in from Scioto and he gets the leading driver. He would be no surprise in this spot. (8) BETTOR B GOING is fast enough to contend at this level and Boyd will likely put him into the race leaving the gate; price look for multi-race tickets. (7) NIGHT CLUB HANOVER made a nice late move to finish in the win photo last week. He can close to land in the Tri again tonight. (9) RAYS KREDIT can pass a few of these late and sneak into the exotics at a price.