Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 9/25

Top Pick Stats: 442 - 1315 / $2,370.20 (-$237.80)

Best Bets: 71 - 125 / $244.10 (-$5.90)

Spot Plays: 23 - 126 / $145.80 (-$96.70)

Best Bet: COMMANDING OFFICER (8TH)

Spot Play: WOODMERE FENN (11TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,5/2,6,7/1,3,5,6/4,9/1,6 = $19.20

Late Pick 5: 2,5,6/1,4,7,9/1/1,4,7,9/1 = $9.60

Early Pick 4: 4,9/1,6/2,5,6/1,4,7,9 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 1/1,4,7,9/1/2,7,8 = $2.40

Race 1: 2YO and 3YO NW2 or $15,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5***

(5) WHY WOULDN'T YA and (2) CONTROL THE PIPER both exit Grand Circuit races, and they should fight it out for the win here in this NW2 dash. Nod to the former who seems to have more gate speed. (1) HURRIKANE CHEYENNE took a big shuffle then finished with good energy along the pylons, but the winner was long gone. He will likely close late for another slice here. (7) CARRIBEAN SPORTS was 1 to 5 last week vs. maidens and he delivered. This is tougher and he is unlikely to get the same trip here; small share predicted.

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Race 2: Winners of 4 (F&M5) but not more than 6 (F&M7) or $80,000 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $60,000 AE: 4YO NW $27,000 in 2023

(7) RIVERS raced well in his first local start considering he missed three weeks. I'll give him a slight nod here to knock off a very sharp (2) WARRAWEE XALT, who looked good making two moves to win last week and shoots for a threepeat. (6) STABLE GENIUS will probably get a better trip here racing on or near the lead and he is another that could do. (8) RICKY RESOLVE comes to play every week and he often lives for a long time racing uncovered. He can take a slice.

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Race 3: 2YO and 3YO NW2 or $15,000 LT

(6) SUPPLEMENTAL FEE was 2nd by a nose in a leg of the Dream Maker when last seen here and he then faced some tough ones in NYSS races. He can beat this group if he gets aggressive early. (5) NEW SHOOTER found Grassroots fractions too fast last time. He has a better chance facing NW2 foes. (3) AT EASE HANOVER came to life two starts back and he is sharp and dangerous in this spot. (1) GERONIMO CREEK has a big late kick, but these are tougher; small share predicted.

Race 4: 5YO and younger NW2 (F&M3) but not more than 4 (F&M5) or $45,000 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO OPT CLM $50,000 - Pick 4

(4) SOUTHWIND COORS was driven way too conservatively in his Canadian Trotting Classic elim, and it cost him a spot in the final. He lands here instead, and he should take care of business. (9) GHOSTLY CASPER made a costly break now he gets Borth, and he should be the one to catch here. (8) BUSY MAKIN MONI is sharp, and he figures to take another slice tonight. Gold filly (2) MUSCLING VEGAS returns from an injury, and she will likely need this race, but I can see her closing for a share.

Race 5: CLM HDCP $12,000 to $16,000

(6) MILITARY SECRET draws best, and this is a spot where he can control the race on the lead again; call to repeat. (1) MACH IMPACT will likely look to stay covered up this time and I could see him beating the choice off that kind of trip; using. (9) MACHIN A TRICK has a huge late kick, but he will probably get too far back from post 9. I expect him to close for a slice belatedly. (7) DEVILS PEAK is on a roll, but these are tougher, and he will likely finish on the edges here.

Race 6: 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 - Pick 5

(5) BETTORHOLDONTIGHT motored late at a huge price last week, but he couldn't catch a rival that got the jump on him. (2) MARSHALL ZHUKOV was positioned better than the choice and he got the jump on him then held him off. He is a threat right back. (6) TALK RACY TO ME set a very fast pace for a NW2 race and he draws best now which could lead to an easier trip. He's not out of this. (9) CONTROL THE GOLD comes off a strong performance but he then missed three weeks. He will likely finish on the edges here.

Race 7: NW $8,000 L5 or $16,200 L8

(1) P L OPPORTUNITY gets to drop in class for this return race and he looks sharp enough based on his two winning qualifiers; top call. (4) GIGONDAS dropped to this level, and he looked good on the lead until midstretch. He might look for the pocket here and he is in with a decent chance. (9) DERF HANOVER drops and he will likely blast and look to lead all the way. He is another contender but he will likely get overbet. (7) TAILGATE BUZZ should improve here making his second start for Auciello and dropping in class. He’s another option for multi-race tickets.

Race 8: NW $4,850 L5 - Pick 4

(1) COMMANDING OFFICER takes a big drop here and he should take care of business vs. this group. (5) PIPEWRENCH CHARLIE is the other dropper, and he is the logical alternative to the choice. (3) HESINCONTROL is usually close at this level. He should get a slice here. (2) BEACHIN LINDY figures to sit a covered trip racing near the front and stick around for a share.

Race 9: NW $14,000 L5 AE: OPT CLM $65,000 or NW $61,000 in 2023

(7) FREE WILLY HANOVER continues to race well every week and he should get a solid pace tonight to set up his late kick; top call. (4) MRMAYOR HANOVER cut some big fractions and got picked off by the pocket sitter. He rates highly vs. these. (1) PATRIARCH HANOVER was a victim of pace and trip last week. He is capable at this level, and he could be an overlay in this spot; using. (9) TRUFFLES TOO comes off a fast win vs. similar but he isn't likely to get the same soft opening 1/2 here. He is a contender, but I wouldn't take a short price.

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Race 10: NW $4,850 L5

(1) BEYOND BETTER was nailed right on the money by a fellow class dropper last week and he gets to drop again off that narrow loss. He should prove tough to beat here as the chalk. (6) ACAPULCO SUNBURN is the other class dropper in here and he should improve enough to complete the Exacta. (7) SIP OF BOURBON takes frequent slices, and he should sit another good trip racing close to the front and get a good share. (3) P L OCTAVIUS scored an upset last time he raced at a level similar to tonight's, but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot.

Race 11: Horses that have started for a purse of $9,000 or less in 1 of L3

(2) WOODMERE FENN comes off a strong effort where he raced more aggressively now, he gets to race against easier. He is the clear top pick here. (7) HES SWIFT figures at this level, but he's 2 for his last 56. What price would you accept? (8) TRIDENT SEELSTER comes off a nice effort here on Thursday night and he should be in the mix if he goes on short rest. (5) INSTANTANEOUS exits the same race as the choice and he can sneak into the exotics here. (1) BOLT POWER rarely misses a check. He should be part of the High-5.