Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 9/23

Top Pick Stats: 513 - 1479 / $2,744.50 (-$207.60)

Best Bets: 72 - 137 / $225.80 (-$48.20)

Spot Plays: 32 - 135 / $312.70 (+$42.70)

Best Bet: B STONEY (8TH)

Spot Play: NORTHERN LOOKER (2ND)

Early Pick 5: 1,5,8/1,3/2,6,7/5,6,10/7,8 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 3,5/1,3/7/3,7/1,2,3,6 = $6.40

Early Pick 4: 5,6,10/7,8/3,5/1,3 = $4.80

Late Pick 4: 1,3/7/3,7/1,2,3,6 = $3.20

Race 1: 5YO and younger NW3 (F&M5) or $50,000 LT **Gtd. $75,000 Pick 5**

(5) BRONZER took a lot of action on the driver change to Roy and the money was correct as he crushed while taking a new lifetime mark. He steps up here, but he will be the one to beat if he produces another sub-1:54 mile; call to repeat. (8) MAGIC DEALER flew late to get 2nd after missing a month and he could do here if he lays a little closer to the front; using. (1) VALUABLE MISS is capable of better than she has shown lately. Getting Henry back and moving inside makes her worth a look. (3) FABULOUS FREDDIE will likely get a more conservative steer tonight getting Christoforou back in the bike and I see him closing for a share.

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Race 2: Winners of 3 but not more than 6 or $80,000 LT

(3) NORTHERN LOOKER blasted off the gate last week, but he was forced to take a seat in 3rd. He then stayed in, took a costly shuffle then rallied well late. I think he gets a better trip racing near the front tonight and gets the job done. (1) TUSCAN PRINCE raced great considering he was out the route last week and he will likely be the one to fend off; using. (4) TOP MAST takes a big class drop here and he can enter contention, but I think he gets over bet, and I’ll play to beat him out of the Pick 5. (5) MASS HYSTERIA gets a driver upgrade to Borth and he should go better in this spot; small share predicted.

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Race 3: NW $4,000 L5 or $8,550 L8 AE: NW 37,500 in 2024

(7) CAPTAIN BUTLER paced a 54 back 1/2 last week chasing a leader that wasn’t stopping. That was a decent effort, and he fits okay here; top call. (2) DR JOE finished ahead of the choice in that race and he should be a threat in this spot; using. (6) LEGION SEELSTER raced better last week and his best effort puts him right there with these. He is another possibility for the early Pick 5. (5) TWIN B POWERBALL won some races in the top class in Quebec. He should take a share at a minimum here.

Race 4: NW $18,750 IN 2024. AE: N/A $1,590 PER START IN 2024 - Pick 4

This is an easier spot for (5) VICTOR INVICTUS, and I like that he showed early speed against a batter field last week. Similar aggression could work vs. this group. (6) NORTHERN CHARLOTTE similarly faces easier and her good early speed should play well in this spot; using. (10) PIERCEWAVE HANOVER gets a trainer change to Merner and attracts Macdonald to drive. He is worth using on multi-race tickets because he may get overlooked from post 10. (2) WASTINGNOTIME finished ahead of the choice, but he is 1 for 19 this year and offers no value as the morning line choice. I’ll play to beat him out of the multi-race tickets.

Race 5: NW $8,000 L5 or $18,250 L10 AE: N/A $1770 P/S IN 2024 AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000

(7) ESPLOSIONE was a winner last time he dropped into this class and he should get a solid pace to chase in this spot; price play. (8) FRANKS ANGEL drops out of the same race as the choice and he will likely get more aggressive in this spot. He can get a good trip racing on or near the front in this spot and he would be no surprise. (3) WALKONTHEMOON is another that drops out of that race and he should show speed here, but he has taken 14 slices this year vs. 2 wins in 31 starts and I’ll use him underneath. (6) CHULO dropped and crushed now he moves up to face some class droppers. He will likely deploy a closing style this week and come on late for a share.

Race 6: NW $16,250 L5 AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. AE: NW $47,750 IN 2024 (MIN 10 STS) - Pick 5

(3) STONEBRIDGE BRAVO adds Lasix, and he doesn’t have to deal with Quebec Hanover in this spot. He has a good chance to lead all the way tonight. (5) NEW RULES is in an easier spot here where his good late kick should play well; using. (4) SOUTHWIND DOMINO was ready to roll coming off a rest but he faces tougher now; small share predicted tonight. (2) PHOENIX should be good for a slice racing close to the front again.

Race 7: NW $2,000 L3 or $11,250 L10 AE: NW $35750 IN 2024 (MIN 10 STS). AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000 - Pick 4

This is a good spot for (1) MUSCLE FASHION, who drops after showing speed from a wide post when facing better last week; top call. (3) MISTER MAGIC is always a threat at this level when he stays flat, but he broke last week, so I’d demand a price. 51-time winner (7) O NARUTAC PERFETTO fits okay in this spot and he is worth using in the exotics at a price. (5) KAMERAN HANOVER was starting to race better before he got sick. I see him closing for a small slice tonight.

Race 8: CLM HDCP $14,000 TO $18,000

(7) B STONEY jogged and got claimed by a high percentage barn and he should be tough to deny as he seeks the repeat here. (5) FROWNIES MIRACLE chased the choice home in vain in a good effort and he can complete the Exacta again here. (3) MACH IMPACT raced okay off the claim, but he was well behind the top two choices and another small share is likely for him here. (8) LYONS KING is another that couldn’t go with the top two when claimed. A slice is likely the best he can hope for tonight.

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Race 9: NW $25,000 L5 AE: NW 10 LT

(3) SAFE CONDUCT just smashed his lifetime mark while trotting a 55 1/5 back 1/2 to crush his rivals and while he faces better now, he gets the call to repeat off that strong winning mile. (7) DISTANCE LEARNING raced well in defeat last week and he figures to be the main threat here. Classy (6) LOOKS LIKE MONI returns, making his first start since July 1 in what should be a good spot for him but he will likely be better next week after he gets a start under his belt. I’ll use him underneath. (4) YO MISTER steps up off a sharp first-over win and he loses Macdonald. He likely finishes on the edges this week.

Race 10: Horses that have started for a purse of $9,000 or less in 1 of L4 W/O $6,800 L5 N/E. AE: NW $6500 IN 2024

(3) CRUISE HANOVER had no shot last week chasing a 1:50 3/5 winner around the track. That start should serve as a good tightener for this easier assignment. I’ll give him the nod in a wide-open race. (6) HOWYOUPLAY THEGAME attracts McNair coming off a nice win over easier at Kawartha Downs. He should be a player in here starting from the best post. (2) MARSHALL ZHUKOV ships north and he seems like a good fit in this spot. I expect him to get an aggressive steer and he is the third one that I’ll use on late multi-race tickets. (1) NIGHT CLUB HANOVER kicked in 27 in his qualifier, and he moves into Merner’s barn. He is another in with a shot here in a good betting race. (4) FABRIZIO N has seen better days, but he should be able to take a check in this spot.