Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 8/31

Meet Stats: 178 - 580 / $1009.10 (-$150.90)
Best Bets: 28 - 52 / $87.40 (-$16.60)
Spot Plays: 11 - 54 / $85.30 (-$22.70)
Best Bet: P L JILL (10TH)
Spot Play: ALWAYS FLASHING A (5TH)
Early Pick 5: 2,3,4,7/1,6,9/1,4/3,7/3,8,9 = $28.80
Late Pick 5: 1,7,8/2,7/1,4,5,6/3,4,5/2 = $14.40
Early Pick 4: 3,7/3,8,9/1,7,8/2,7 = $36
Late Pick 4: 1,4,5,6/3,4,5/2/2,5,8 = $36

Race 1: 2YO NW1 or $13,500 LT **GTD $100,000 Pick 5**

I prefer a couple of horses coming off qualifiers here starting with (2) CONTROL HEAVEN who wouldn't need to improve much on his August 25th qualifier to be a main contender here. (7) MAJOR BEAN showed some promise earlier in the summer here and if he can return to that form, he might be the one to beat here. (4) LAST BET utilized a good trip and a slowing late pace to come on late for 2nd in Sarnia and he is in the mix, but he might get overbet with the driver switch to Henry. (3) FRANK DEFORD was first up into the teeth of an accelerating pace last time. He has upset potential with Macdonald likely to find him some cover and try to pounce late.

Race 2: 2YO NW $10,000 LT

(9) RITSON, a $110,000 Lexington purchase, is a 1/2-brother to three that are all winners including 1:52 3/5 (M) performer Winning Shadow. Obviously, post isn't ideal, but this doesn't appear to be a tough spot and he did show early speed in his lone qualifier; top call. (1) SOUTHWIND CERSEI is getting better each start and she should contend here. (6) SHOWME SOME MUSCLE is another with improving form who merits close consideration for Pick 5 bets. (4) CRAZY GOODBYE can pass a few of these late and land in the bottom of the Tri or Super.

Race 3: ONT SIRED 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES, GRASSROOT STARTERS IN 2020. NW $10,000 L5

(1) MOUTH WATERING exits a fast race where she raced decently, and this could be a spot where Henry makes a middle move to the front and sprints away to a win. (4) KEYSTONE KALIMBA provided cover to the choice last time after leaving well from the 9-hole. Jamieson should be blasting with her and she is a threat to lead all the way. (6) SAULSBROOK RAVEN took some action last week and she is another who is likely to be placed closer to the front early here; using underneath. (2) ROSE RUN VICTORY can pass a few rivals late again and take a small share.

Race 4: NW3 (F&M 4) or $40,000 (F&M $50,000) - Pick 4

(7) ANGRY EYES took a new life's mark last time and she is a four-year-old racing against many sophomores who are in between stakes engagements. She could go right down the road again. (3) TRINA was outstanding winning OSS Gold last time and she is likely the one that the choice will need to fend off. (4) TYMAL HOUDINI trotted a 27-flat kicker against the choice last time but it got him no better than fifth. He should get a piece of this. (9) KUIL DEVA is always a good one to use on the bottom and she is sure to be a big price here.

Race 5: NW $5,000 L5 or $11,000 L9

There is lots to like with (3) ALWAYS FLASHING A: he returns in six days after missing 24 days before his start last week; he gets off the 9-hole; he paced a quick back 1/2 which should have tightened him up, and he should be a good price facing some class-droppers. (8) BORN OF FIRE took all the money last week and he was raced hard, but he couldn't get past another tough class-dropper. He rates highly here. (9) GHOST DANCE drops again and gets his nose on the gate. Is this the night he blasts to the front? (7) MCPAT should be passing horses late but he is often a victim of pace and trip; your call.

Race 6: CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000 – Pick 5

(8) ITS HUW YOU KNOW was claimed out of another good effort and he should be tough in here. (1) MONTABANO BI has a couple of flat lines in a row and he moves out of the second tier for this. A wakeup performance would not be a surprise. (7) EXPLOSIVE JET looked dangerous briefly on the far turn last week until the class-dropping winner sprinted away. She has a better chance here. (6) LMC MASS OAK comes off a winning race under saddle and he is capable of taking a share at this level.

Race 7: NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10

If (2) AREUKIDDINME CABBIE uses the same approach here as he did two starts back, he may be able to bottom this field out; top call. (7) ROOTIN TOOTIN has faced better for several weeks. This should be a good spot for him; using. (6) BEACHIN LINDY is also in an easier spot but he has yet to finish in the Exacta this year so far; demand a price. (8) BUSH MAN N fits well at this level, but he has missed more than a month. I see him making a late burst to take a small slice.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRED 3YO FILLIES - Pick 4

(5) PREEMINENCE just needs better position early and moving to the middle of the gate should enable her to get a spot closer to the front early so she can pounce late; slight nod. (4) MACH MY KISS did all the work and was picked off late by a rival that tripped out. She should be formidable here. (1) QUESO RELLENO is sharp and dangerous and another filly in with a chance in a contentious race. (6) BETTORTHANBOBBI gets Filion back and that makes her another contender in a race with many.

Race 9: NW $8,000 L5 or $19,000 L10 or NW7 LT AE: OPT CLM $20,000

(5) HEMI SEELSTER was razor-sharp winning last week and he gets the call to repeat here. (4) VEYRON was a big winner last time he shipped in to Mohawk Park and he is on my late multi-race tickets. (3) MISTER MAGIC is typically really good when he stays flat and he is another who should be heard from here assuming he doesn't miscue. (1) BIG RICH is hard to leave off Tri and Super tickets as he always seems to be around the money.

Race 10: PREFERRED

(2) P L JILL is just too good for these right now, assuming she stays flat. Her previous gait issues appear to be behind her now. (3) FREE WILLY HANOVER is in peak form right now and he can fill out the Exacta again. (4) RUN DIRECTOR raced tough first-over here last Monday and he should take a slice here. (7) PERFETTO is another who is in great form that can land in the Super here, likely at a price.

Race 11: CLM HDCP $25,000 to $30,000

(8) LONE WOLF TERROR was unlucky in defeat last week, his chances killed by poor cover, but he fired home very quickly. His odds go up here and he may roll by them all late. (2) CHOREOGRAPHER was also a bit unlucky to get picked off late by his main rival that stayed covered up and was loaded for the final 1/16th. He should be the one to catch again. (5) CHEAPSKATE HANOVER is razor-sharp right now and he is another in with a shot here. (10) MILITARY SECRET will take action on the drop into a claimer, but I prefer to use him underneath from this post. (6) UF BETTORS HANOVER rarely misses the High-5 and he could better this placing with a trip.