Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 8/24

Meet Stats: 159 - 536 / $922.20 (-$150.80)
Best Bets: 25 - 48 / $77.80 (-$18.20)
Spot Plays: 10 - 50 / $71.20 (-$28.80)
Best Bet: LYONS TILT HANOVER (1ST)
Spot Play: COUNT TO THREE (7TH)
Early Pick 5: 3/6,7/2,5,8,9/5,6/3,7 = $6.40
Late Pick 5: 5,6/3,7/3/5,6,8/3,6 = $4.80
Early Pick 4: 5,6/3,7/2,6,7/1,8,10 = $36
Late Pick 4: 3/5,6,8/3,6/2,4,8 = $18

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS 3YO FILLIES **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**

(3) LYONS TILT HANOVER closed from what appeared to be an impossible spot to just miss last Tuesday in her first start out of the Beaton barn. She missed more than a month prior to that start which should have her perfectly primed for this Grassroots race six days later and she gets top call. (6) MOUTH WATERING was in a long first-over grind in that same race and she was right there at the wire. She should be a threat here. (4) ISLA SEELSTER moves inside and gets driver Macdonald back. There is some upset potential here. (8) HIT BY A BUS races better when placed near the front early and she should be leaving this time; consider for the exotics.

Race 2: CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000

(7) MISTER MAGIC is an all-or-nothing proposition here because at this level he will almost surely win if he stays flat. He gets my nod but I wouldn't take a short price. (6) ITS HUW YOU KNOW drops back to the level where he was claimed then won for conditioner Barrington and he is the most likely winner if the choice blows up. (5) EXPLOSIVE JET has compiled a great record and she is always around the money; using underneath. (8) MARQUIS VOLO should contend for a share here dropping in for a tag.

Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS 3YO FILLIES

(8) PREEMINENCE is hot now and McClure should get her positioned well early; a threepeat looms. (2) MACH MY KISS comes off a sharp effort and she is 2 for 2 in Grassroots races so she is likely the one to beat starting from the inside; using. (9) FREE FLYIN TICKET is also unbeaten so far in Grassroots races so she's hard to leave out, even from the 9-hole. (5) MARY KAT wasn't used much last week in what should be a good tightener for this Grassroots start and she has the look of a possible upsetter.

Race 4: NW $18,000 L5 or $28,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $50,000 - Pick 4

(5) COOL MUSCLE was no match for a razor-sharp Final Claim last week but he maintained his good form and he rates the nod here. (6) STEUBEN HANOVER tried the best at Georgian with no luck but he fits much better here and he should rebound; using. (9) SUPERLATIVE couldn't be going any better right now and post 9 doesn't hurt because she is dropping to the back at the start anyway. She will offer a good price and she isn't out of this. (3) MEMO should get position early here and stick around for a share.

Race 5: CLM HDCP $15,000 to $20,000

(3) BUDDHA BLUE CHIP was re-claimed by Moreau for himself and I expect a bounce-back effort in this spot. (7) CHOREOGRAPHER made a power move to drive away from the choice last week and he is the one to fear. (8) P L IDAHO drops and will likely take some money at the windows but I prefer to use him underneath only until he erases the goose egg from the 2020 win column. (5) MACH IMPACT raced well to get second behind Choreographer and he should take a slice here.

Race 6: PREFERRED - Pick 5

(6) MARION MARAUDER's win in 1:50 2/5 two starts backs indicates his form is good enough to beat these plus he draws well and gets McClure; top call. (2) DONT LETEM had impossible posts in the Cashman and Crawford and he is an obvious threat here from post 2. (7) HEY LIVVY is tuning up for a Grand Circuit race this coming Saturday so she will be looking for a good result here and she is certainly capable. (8) RUN DIRECTOR won here in June and hey is not out of this but I'll use him underneath from post 8.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS 3YO FILLIES

(10) COUNT TO THREE should get put into the flow this week and this race seems to set up for a stalking type; top call. (8) SAULSBROOK FLASHY improved sharply last week and she should be a square price in here; using. (1) COQUI COQUI’s July 27th win stamps her as a contender in this field and she could trip out starting from the inside; using. (7) ROSE RUN VICTORY can come on late for another share and add some value to the Super.

Race 8: NW $12,000 L5 or $24,000 L10 or NW 7LT or NW $15,000 L8 - Pick 4

(3) VAINQUER R P NO stands out here and he will likely get sent right down the road by Gingras. (7) BUZZ tired badly racing on a "good" track that was unkind to front enders and he can rebound here with a much better try at a price. (8) TREASURED TEE was first up racing over the same good track and he also tired late. He can go much better here. (5) KAMERAN HANOVER rode a closers’ bias to a good finish. I expect him to be on the edges here at the wire.

Race 9: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS 3YO FILLIES

(8) BETTORTHANBOBBI had a nice tuneup for this and she should get more aggressive with Grassroots points on the line tonight; top call. (6) KAT always races tough in these Grassroots events and she should be right there vs. there. (5) ODDS ON VERO BEACH is in sharp form and she should be a threat racing close to the front. (9) QUESO RELLENO comes off a sharp win against easier and from out there I'll use her underneath.

Race 10: CLM HDCP $25,000 to $30,000

(3) LONE WOLF TERROR is more dangerous now that he lays closer to the front early and he should be able to grind out a win here. (6) JULERICA was hot here in July and the short field here he may be able to recapture that form; using. (5) UF BETTORS HANOVER is always good for a share and he should be in the Tri here. (4) LEGAL BETTOR should go better from this post and he can better this prediction with a decent trip.

Race 11: NW $3,000 L5 or NW $7,000 L10

(4) POINTOMYGRANSON should boss this bottom-level conditioned group from start-to-finish. (2) HIS BOY ELROY closed well from an impossible spot but he is likely to get overbet in this spot and I'll use him to complete the Exacta. (8) CINNABAR DRAGON races best at this level and he should be part of the Tri. (6) BORN OF FIRE is another class dropper who should wake up with a better effort in this spot; consider for the exotics. (3) GOOD EYE HAWKEYE is worth a look off the barn change and his sharp August 18th qualifier.