Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 8/19

Top Pick Stats: 437 - 1263 / $2,394.60 (-$131.40)

Best Bets: 62 - 118 / $195.50 (-$40.50)

Spot Plays: 29 - 115 / $280.30 (+$50.30)

Best Bet: LINDYS IRISHCREAM (1ST)

Spot Play: CADILLAC MOON (6TH)

Early Pick 5: 4/5/2,3,8/2,4,5,6/1,2,8 = $7.20

Late Pick 5: 3,7/2,6,9/1,4,7/6/1,3,6,7,8 = $18

Early Pick 4: 2,4,5,6/1,2,8/3,7/2,6,9 = $14.40

Late Pick 4: 2,6,9/1,4,7/6/1,3,6,7,8 = $9

Race 1: POP UP SERIES: NW $18,000 (F&M $22,500) IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: N/A $1,500 (F&M $1,875) PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). LEG 2. AE: 1ST LEG STARTERS **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(4) LINDYS IRISHCREAM justified her 3 to 5 favoritism in leg 1 when she produced a strong first-over winning effort and she will likely get bet down in this field, too. She is clearly the one to beat. (2) DELCREST BRENT trotted a decent back 1/2 to take a share last week and he should be passing rivals again here. He can be an Exacta factor. (5) RUN LIKE HILL has hit the board in 50% of his 72 races in the past two years and he comes in from Buffalo sharp. He seems to fit well here and he can take a share. (3) EPIC DREAMER wasn’t great in leg 1 but he gets J Mac in the bike now and he might be able to wake him up; price look for the exotics.

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Race 2: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: PROSPECT SERIES STARTERS IN 2024

(5) WHEELZABLAZIN took his seventh win of the year last Sunday in the Prospect Series at Georgian Downs, and he gets Jamieson in the bike now. That driver is familiar with him from past drives and this gelding gets the nod here. (6) LOCKDOWN ROMEO was no match for the choice last week but he looks second best here again in a race where there appears to be little value. (1) BUTTINSKI has hit the board in five straight, and he should get position early in the mile using his good gate speed. He should be an exotics factor. (7) MAESTRO SEELSTER will likely leave out to get a good position and I can see him sticking around for a share.

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Race 3: CLAIMING HANDICAP $14,000 TO $18,000

(7) BROOKDALE SEB made a couple of moves to make sure he was following the chalk leader in his last start and Macdonald motivated him to get up in a new lifetime best. I’ll give him the call to repeat here. (8) MAINTENANCE MAN dropped and popped, and he needed every inch of racetrack to do it. He races off the McQueen claim now, and he stays at the same level. He is a contender, but I would demand a price. (2) MACH IMPACT raced tough first-over and I could see him scoring an upset here if he finds a better trip. (6) CAPTAIN FIREBALL likely closes late again and lands in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 4: NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $15,000 OR LESS LAST START - Pick 4

(6) CHULO has won three of his last five and in the other two starts he faced the likes of Southwind Coors and Pemberton in the other two starts. There are none like those two rivals in here; top call. (4) ALL GAS NO BRAKES races best with Macdonald driving and he has been firing sub-28 kickers for a few weeks. He is in with a decent chance here. (5) MERCUTIO raced well in three straight at Georgian Downs, including his most recent start where he was 2nd to the choice. He is sharp and is another to consider for early multi-race tickets. (2) MUSCLE FASHION inherited the front when the leader broke approaching the 3/4 pole, but he left no doubt from there and didn’t let any of his rivals into the race. He is yet another chance in a good betting race.

Race 5: NW $15,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. AE: NW $105,000 LIFETIME

(1) SERENITY CRUISE got a very long trip last time and still was beaten only 4 1/2 lengths. He has only one win this year, but I could see him staying covered up from the rail tonight then closing for the win; call to upset. (2) ADARE CASTLE can’t trot with the big girls but she is in easier here and she should go much better. My only concern is that she comes off Lasix. (8) MRMAYOR HANOVER is in the mix every week and he can take a share here at a price. (5) HP MAMA B will likely show speed again, but she missed a week between starts similar as he did before her last start. A smaller share is likely for her in this spot.

Race 6: POP UP SERIES: NW $18,000 (F&M $22,500) IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: N/A $1,500 (F&M $1,875) PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). LEG 2. AE: 1ST LEG STARTERS - Pick 5

(7) CADILLAC MOON took the royal shuffle last week and lost all chance. He rallied well when he finally got room and I think he makes amends in this spot. (3) MYSTIC was picked off late by the 3 to 5 chalk in leg 1 and he will likely be favored here. He is probably the one to beat. (4) AMIGO MIO was first up in that race and second best. He is 2 for his last 47 and more likely to take a share than the win. (6) ZIP ME UP was beaten only a length by the choice and he should be in the exotics mix again tonight.

Race 7: HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $9,500 OR LESS IN 1 of L3 - Pick 4

(9) WOODMERE FENN was first up against a strong winner last week and he held in there well when the late pace accelerated. I don’t mind post 9 for him tonight because he should be able to find some cover starting from there; top call. (6) IT TAKES TWO exits the same race and he kicked in 27 2/5 despite having missed a week. I’ll toss him on multi-race tickets tonight. (2) BETTOR B GOING is very fast on his best day and he has been okay in both of his first two starts back; price look. (1) MUSIC TO MY GEARS improved in his last two starts and he can take a share here.

Race 8: NW $25,500 L5. AE: OPT. CLM. $100,000. AE: NW $30,100 LAST 5 STARTS TO DRAW OUTSIDE

(1) SAFE CONDUCT lands in a spot here where the pace and trip scenario likely favors his stout closing style. He steps up coming off a break in stride which should boost his odds; price play. (4) PEMBERTON is best in here when he is on his game, but he comes off a lame scratch so it’s hard to accept a short price tonight. (7) GHOSTLY CASPER raced better on the class drop and he should be a player here; using. (8) PATRIARCH HANOVER tripped out and got the job done last week. He is in a field here where more horses will likely blast off the gate. I’ll use him underneath.

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Race 9: POP UP SERIES: NW $18,000 (F&M $22,500) IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: N/A $1,500 (F&M $1,875) PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). LEG 2. AE: 1ST LEG STARTERS

This race looks like it will boil down to the winners from leg 1, (6) MACALLAN and (1) VICTOR INVICTUS. I favor the former who crushed with very little effort. (4) CHARMBO PRINCE produced a decent rally last week and he is a good one to use underneath here. (5) ER NORMA is another closer that can come on late for a small piece.

Race 10: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000

(8) BAD EYE BILL was bet like he couldn’t lose last week despite having missed four weeks. He can be even sharper now and he gets the call to repeat. (3) SOMEWHERENTUSCANY moves from one high % barn to another and he comes up tagged here. This looks like a good spot for him, and he is in with a decent shot. (6) DR JOE took a lot of action when beaten by the choice last week and he was never close enough to threaten the winner. His style often gets him out of position, but he does have a potent late kick. Demand a price here. (7) COALITION HANOVER fires off the gate every week and gets himself in position to earn money. He is a good one to use in the Tri and Super. (1) HEAD HONCHO comes off a failed first-over effort which should have him sharper for this second start back. He can sit and rally this time.