Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 8/17/26

Top Pick Stats: 444/1394 (-$706.80)

Best Bets: 55/125 (-$37.70); Spot Plays: 29/128 (-$79.70)

Best Bet: JERSEY BULLDOG (Race 9)

Spot Play: GUCCI GUCCI GOO (Race 5)

Early Pick-5: 1,7/3/2,5/3,4/4,6 $3.20

Late Pick-5: 8,10/4,6/6,8/1/2,6 $3.20

Race 1: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 3) RACES OR $20,000 (OS $32,000) LIFETIME.

(1) EMERALD ISLAND pulled off a gigantic upset after being off a year. I don’t think anyone was expecting a mile like that after just one qualifier, but she’s hard to ignore now. (7) BELLE BOUBOU should benefit if spotted closer to the leaders. Her turn of foot should play well here. (4) COURTNEYS PROMISE likely uses early speed which should allow her to sit a good trip.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 3: 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $900 CDN ($700 USD).

(3) WAVES OF FORTUNE was basically a lock when dropping to the maiden level and followed through. She doesn’t have to face Money Carlo who has bested her in the first two legs. (4) QUED UP just missed in her latest after another good mile. She might be a step behind the top fillies, but should hold her own. (1) CHAROLAIS CATTLE could be a step short if she tries a grinding move. Any kind of breather up top will make the favorite tough to beat.

Race 3: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES: NW 1 RACE OR $10,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(2) MIDNIGHT MATRIMONY was in tough on debut but paced a back half that makes me think she has some upside. We’ll see what she can provide tonight. (5) MOMENTS PLEASURE is a well-bred filly for top connections who should be respected on that alone. A “prove it” moment on debut, but I expect her to show a good bit. (6) DUNDEES VICTORY is progressing nicely and could show some gate speed with this draw. I’ll use her underneath.

Race 4: POP UP SERIES: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $11,000 OR LESS LAST 3 STARTS (W/O $40,000 IN 2026 N/E). AE:N/A $1,500 P/S IN 2026 (MIN 10 STARTS). LEG 1.

(3) ZIP ME UP managed to snag a check in his latest and now faces easier competition. I’ll give him the nod. (4) SOUTHWIND RUSSIAN benefitted from a forward trip two back but has been making breaks with too much regularity. Getting away from the rail could help. (9) FRENCHY HANOVER has just one win this year but is regularly a check getter. She should be passing horses late once again.

Race 5: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 4) RACES OR $50,000 (OS $75,000) LIFETIME.

(6) GUCCI GUCCI GOO’s effort last week was his best race since the qualifier. He is in form that can get him a win with the right trip. (4) SAPPHIRE STEVE produced a career-best win last week and likely secures another good trip. (5) DUSTY ROADS has sustained grinding moves against Shimmering Hanover who he doesn’t have to face tonight. He should be in the mix, but could also tow others into contention.

Race 6: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,500 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $10,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(10) STORMONT FAST BOY was charging late to be fourth and likely caught the eye of many. We’ll see if he can work out a winning trip from the high draw. (8) ALPHA BLUE CHIP trotted a strong mile after just one qualifier but got picked off late. A similar mile has him right there again. (9) MY CLASSY QUEEN is a closer type who has picked up checks in each of her last five starts. I’ll look for her to improve on that tonight.

Race 7: POP UP SERIES: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $8,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. (MUST RACE IN 2 LEGS TO BE ELIGIBLE TO FINAL). LEG 3.

(4) TITANIC HANOVER races off the claim after a sharp win on the lead. Post relief makes it easier for him to get to the front. (6) SHOW STOP had a tough task when grinding at Georgian but posted back to back wins before that. He fits well at this level. (3) ROYAL JK didn’t bring his best last week but was another who tried to grind in a speed favoring race. He can rebound tonight.

Race 8: POP UP SERIES: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $11,000 OR LESS LAST 3 STARTS (W/O $40,000 IN 2026 N/E). AE:N/A $1,500 P/S IN 2026 (MIN 10 STARTS). LEG 1.

(6) EMMA TOWN BUD was a sharp winner off the bench and should show more around the big track if he is sound. (8) RAISING RUSTY has the gate speed to overcome the draw and has been benefitting from getting away up close. (5) FIREINSIDEMYVEINS is an underneath type but took a step forward in his latest. He can get a piece here.

Race 9: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 3: 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $900 CDN ($700 USD).

(1) JERSEY BULLDOG has established herself as a top filly provincially and will look to keep the momentum going tonight. (4) MONEY CARLO made an uncharacteristic miscue in the Battle of the Belles Final which took her out of it. Expect her to rebound tonight. (5) TWIN B MAYREAU is another good filly with gate speed in a competitive race. Not surprising if any of these top three win.

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Race 10: POP UP SERIES: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $8,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. (MUST RACE IN 2 LEGS TO BE ELIGIBLE TO FINAL). LEG 3.

(2) GLORYVIEW IMAGE should get away up close which has allowed him to shine at this level in recent outings. (6) SOUTHWIND SAMBUCCA could find new life in a new barn but he has done so little this year which makes it a bigger risk. (3) D A SUPER GLO couldn’t make his middle move stick and failed to get a check as last week’s favorite. I can see him rebounding for a piece.

Race 11: 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES: GRASSROOTS STARTERS.

(3) ELBOWS UP kept her sharp form intact as she cruised in her latest. An easy opening half could leave everyone else chasing. (4) BELLA CHICA tried a grinding move on a night that was speed favoring. I can see her getting away closer to the leaders tonight and potentially tripping out. (6) UPGRADE benefitted from early speed carrying horses a long way and pulled off a slight upset in her latest. Similar tactics are likely in play.