Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 8/17

Meet Stats: 146-492/ $759.70 (-$224.30)
Best Bets: 23-44/ $72.60 (-$15.40)
Spot Plays: 10-46 / $71.20 (-$20.80)
Best Bet: CHEAPSKATE HANOVER (2ND)
Spot Play: LYDIA LULA BELLE (8TH)
Early Pick 5: 4,7/6/1,2,4,9/2,5,7/2,5 = $9.60
Late Pick 5: 4,5,6/1,6/5,6,8/2,3,4/5,6 = $21.60
Early Pick 4: 2,5,7/2,5/4,5,6/1,6 = $36
Late Pick 4: 5,6,8/2,3,4/5,6/2,3,5 = $54

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS 2 YO FILLIES **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**

(4) BAN BAN DEO drops out of Golds and she simply looks fastest here; top call in the opener. (7) A BLUE BLOOD comes out of the same race as the choice and she should threaten in this easier spot; using. (2) MAG N LADY shows two good Grassroots efforts to kick off her career and she figures to get a good trip here racing near the front. She is in with an upset chance. (3) FORTUNE TELLERS K has also started off her career well and her good gate speed puts her in the mix, especially if any of the choices make a miscue.

Race 2: CLM HDCP $25,000 to $30,000

(6) CHEAPSKATE HANOVER was taken at the perfect time by Fellows two starts back and he fired a career-best bullet immediately racing off the claim; call to repeat. (5) REAL SURREAL is priced for a tag also after taking a new life's mark and he seems to fit well here; Exacta factor. (3) JULERICA raced better for Puddy but the two choices may be too tough here; using underneath. (4) UF BETTORS HANOVER is always good for a share it seems. I'll use him on the bottom of Tris and Supers.

Race 3: NW $5,000 L5 or $10,000 L9

(4) POINTOMYGRANSON went too fast too early last time but missing a check allows him to take another class drop here and I could see him deploying a stalk and pounce strategy this time. (1) PRICELESS BEACH has been in many tough spots recently. He should appreciate this class relief and he should wake up with a better effort here. (2) BORN OF FIRE drops and gets away from the 10-hole. He is in with a decent shot here in a wide-open race. (9) ROOTIN TOOTIN shows a 1:50 3/5 score here taken off a tough first-over trip one class lower four starts back. He could surprise here with the right trip.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS 2 YO FILLIES - Pick 4

(7) TEALICIOUS drops and stands a good chance to pop facing Grassroots company for the first time. (2) SNOWFALLA comes back fast after showing some brief early speed in the Pure Ivory final on Thursday night and she can go much better vs. these. (5) KADILLAC GIRL qualified well for Roy who drives her here and she can take a piece of this. (3) LIMINARY HANOVER's early speed will get her in position to land in the Super.

Race 5: CLM HDCP $15,000 to $20,000

(5) BUDDHA BLUE CHIP goes back to trainer Fritz and he won two back easily racing out of this barn, so he gets top call. (2) BUTE COURAGE N used a perfect trip to record a new life's best mark racing off the claim at age 11 last week and he could get a similar journey here, so he is on my multi-race tickets. (1) CHOREOGRAPHER was also sharp racing off the claim, and he is in the exotics mix here. (8) MISSION THREE edged by the choice late when claimed but post disadvantage likely limits him to a smaller share here.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS 2 YO FILLIES - Pick 5

(5) CHARMBO PRINCESS looked good making two moves to win her debut and she gets the call to repeat here. (4) YS PATRICIA exits a much tougher race and she should improve here but she could also get overbet. (6) WARAWEE WELCOME was 2 to 5 in a Gold race in early July then she dealt with some sickness. She is another who should get back on track here and she is a threat to wire this field. (3) STORMONT BARBEQUE just took a check in a Gold race so she can land in the Tri or Super vs. these.

Race 7: NW $8,000 L5 or $16,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $20,000

(1) EXEMPLAR raced better last week when dropped in class now he gets to face easier again; slight nod. (6) KAMERAN HANOVER is showing signs of coming around with McNair driving and I'll use him here. (4) BIG RICH is likely to leave well and sit another good trip, but he is often best-used underneath. (9) HEMI SEELSTER likely won't get bet much here but he figures to land in the Super somewhere even starting from out there.

Race 8: F&M CLM HDCP $10,000 to $15,000 – Pick 4

(6) LYDIA LULA BELLE was sharp racing off the Fellows claim and she just missed. She has post position advantage on her main rival (8) HIaGHMOON SUNSHINE who has been great since dropping into claimers. Slight nod to the former but using both in the late Pick 4. (5) FERN HILL BELLA gets her nose back on the gate and driver Young has been doing well here recently; upset chance. (4) MISS ROCKADALI races off the claim but she seems best used underneath again.

Race 9: NW $13,500 L5 or $24,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000

(4) TREASURED TEE comes back quicker here, and he may go right down the road in this spot. (2) O NARUTAC PERFETTO can beat a couple of these off the gate and get much better position early this week and that gives him a chance in here. (3) ONLY TAKE CASH can't seem to break through but she is getting closer. She makes sense as a viable contender here. (6) CUE HALL should be close early and likely hang around for a small share.

Race 10: NW $28,000 L5 or $160,000 LT AE: OPTR CLM $75,000

(6) COOL MUSCLE is razor-sharp right now and he can beat these if he is close enough at the head of the lane. (5) FINAL CLAIM is clearly the fastest horse in here but he squandered a win away last time when he blew up in the lane, so I'm not sure how low of a price I could take. (3) IM THE MUSCLE keeps Roy after a good effort, and he is in the exotics mix again. (2) B YOYO should be good for another small share despite stepping up in class; using underneath.

Race 11: NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10

This race has the feel of one that will set up for a closer. I'll take (5) HIS BOY ELROY to chase them down late. (2) OSBORNE SEELSTER drops, and he is likely to go a long way on the lead this week; using. (3) SPORTS AUTHORITY gets Henry this week and he is another who figures to be passing horses in the stretch. He's the third one I'll use to close out this late Pick 4. (8) MACHIN A TRICK was close at this level two starts back but it looks like he has a few quick leavers to his left this week. I'll use him underneath. (1) MACH CODE figures to sit another good trip and hang around for a small share.