Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 7/3

Top Pick Stats: 297 - 896 / $1,553.80 (-$238.20)

Best Bets: 49 - 82/ $174.70 (+$10.70)

Spot Plays: 15 - 83/ $88.70 (-$77.30)

Best Bet: T H MCMURRY (1ST)

Spot Play: SOUTHWIND CHARDNAY (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 6/2,5,7,8/3,5/2,8/3,4,7 = $9.60

Late Pick 5: 2,3,4,6/2,4/4,5/1,2,4/5,7 = $19.20

Early Pick 4: 2,8/3,4,7/2,3,4,6/2,4 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 2,4/4,5/1,2,4/5,7 = $4.80

Race 1: 2YO colts and geldings **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(6) T H MCMURRY was very impressive in his lone qualifier, pacing an effortless 26 2/5 kicker to win going away and he gets top billing at first asking here. (2) BARSTOOL MOUNTAIN improved sharply in his second qualifier, and he can be an Exacta factor on debut. (3) RUN RUN ZOLTAN paced a faster final 1/4 in his second qualifier and he should be an exotics factor here. (4) GEISHAS TREASURE raced okay in his debut. He can finish on the edges again.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS LEG 2: 3YO Trotting Fillies

(8) HOT FLASH KIMMY has three starts where she closed late in all of them. I think she gets sent forward leaving the gate this tim in leg 2 where she will need to start compiling points and she could get a much better result if raced aggressively. (7) NORTHERN CHARLOTTE took advantage of the favorite breaking early to go right down the road last Tuesday, but that was a sharp effort considering the time she missed leading to that start. She is an obvious threat. (5) MATCH MEIF YOU CAN gets a big driver change here following a sharp effort and she is another to consider for the early Pick 5. (2) SISTER TWISTER caught a break when the 1 to 5 chalk broke on the lead at the 3/4 pole last time, but she did find a 28-flat kicker to get the job done. She's not out of this.

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Race 3: NW $2,550 L5 AE: NW $500 in 2023

(5) MAJOR HILL never got involved last week but missing a check allows him to drop again. He gets Borth and a good post now and I'll stick with him. (3) FOREFATHER was the first leader then he got shuffled as some rivals battled through some crazy fractions. He did well to come back on for 3rd and I'll use him here. (6) REVOLT was better last week but he is no lock here, even on the class drop. I’ll fade him until I see him make a move of his own. (1) PARTYINTHESHADOWS likely closes for a small share again.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS LEG 2: 3YO Trotting Fillies - Pick 4

(8) SOUTHWIND CHARDNAY looked well on her way to a win last time when a bird flew into her front legs just past the 3/4 pole causing her to jump off stride. I'll chance that tonight's birds have better flight plans and give her the nod. (2) H P RUN FOR DAN fits better in Grassroots company and she should be the main threat. (3) SENIORITA SOLO will likely find the top two too tough as she shoots for a threepeat; using underneath. (5) NORTHERN MAGENTA will likely pass a few of these late to take a share.

Race 5: Winners of 4 (F&M5) but not more than 7 or $80,000 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $60,000

(4) GAINES HANOVER should not lose here but keep in mind his next start will likely be for five times more money in a Gold race. (3) CHOCOLATE PARFAIT keeps improving every start and I can see her rallying for a good piece of this. (7) MRMAYOR HANOVER lost in a blanket finish last week, but he maintained his strong form. He is in the exotics mix here. (2) ESPLOSIONE exits a fast race, and he can trip out and take a slice here.

Race 6: 2YO colts and geldings - Pick 5

(3) CENTURY KOMODO caught my eye at the qualifiers last Saturday morning, flying at the wire to win the race within a race for 3rd. The $100,000 London Classic sale buy should get put into this race earlier and he gets the nod. (2) BRINGITONHOMETOME is a half to 2021 Battle of Waterloo champion Betterhavemymoney and he surely has more speed than he showed last Saturday; using. (6) PORTERS MAN was another that looked good finishing but was too far back to threaten the leaders. He is from the first crop of local star Jimmy Freight, and he sold for $36,000 at the London Classic sale. (4) NIJINSKY lost a stretch-long sprint to the finish in a strong effort, and he is another in with a shot on debut.

Race 7: CLM HDCP $12k to $16,000 - Pick 4

(4) CORTEZ THE KILLER provided golden cover for (2) BETTOR NOTBITTER A last week and the latter got up late to take a new life’s mark. This race could go to either and I'll side with the one that will likely offer the better price. (1) MACH IMPACT, 3rd to the top two last week, can take another share here. (6) WINDSONG GRAYSON should close for another small share in this spot.

Race 8: CLM HDCP $25,000 to $35,000

(5) FLYING ART A was involved in a race with a ton of action and several lead changes in his first start for Moreau now he drops. He should be much better here and offer a decent price; slight nod. (4) MERCENARY couldn’t be any sharper, having taken a new life's mark at age 10 last week, and he should get a solid pace to chase here; using. (3) SKYLAR races hard every week and rarely gets an easy trip. He is an obvious contender, but you wonder how long he can keep his streak of strong performances going. (7) ROCK AND TWIST was Macdonald’s pick over the choice and that makes him worth a look.

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Race 9: NW $4,950 L5 AE: starters for a purse of $9,000 or less L5

(4) PIRATE HANOVER paced a winning race last week and he was unlucky in defeat. He is the clear top pick here. (2) MR BEAST did well to hold on for 3rd in that race considering the trip he got, and he should be the main threat to the choice tonight. (1) GOING FAST is another that raced his eyeballs out last week, but he steps up now and this is no easy spot. I'd need a price. (3) FOXHUNT got a perfect trip to blow up the tote board. I don't see him getting the same trip. I'll use him underneath.

Race 10: NW $8,000 L5 AE: Starters for a purse of $15K or less L4

(7) WHITE TIGER drops and he has a good chance to pop here. J Mac will likely try to go right down the road with him. (5) SIMCOE SEELSTER is the other multi-class dropper in here and he too will probably be more aggressive. He could sit the pocket and win tonight. (9) SPARTAN GENERAL was absolutely flying late last week; his problem is he gets too far back. He could do if the race totally falls apart late, but I’d demand a price. (10) DERF HANOVER likely blasts for a spot near the front and sticks around for a share. (6) ALL WRAPPED UP will likely close late for a small share in this spot.