Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 7/21

Top Pick Stats: 69/211 (-$134.00)

Best Bets: 7/19 (-$9.10); Spot Plays: 3/19 (-$23.80)

Best Bet: BETTER SCRIPT (Race 8)

Spot Play: BET THE BB (Race 11)

Early Pick 5: 1,10/7/3,5,9/1,2/1,3 $4.80

Late Pick 5: 4,6/3,5,9/6/2,3/3 $2.40

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(1) SPEAKSOFTLYTOME was battling all the way to the line before getting picked off by the fast closing Twin B John B who I liked that night. He can build off that effort tonight. (10) DR DAVE was guns blazing on debut and held everyone off for an impressive debut score. Is the plan the same tonight from post ten? (3) ILLICIT BEHAVIOR disappointed on debut considering how good he looked in his second morning prep. He will need to show more. (5) TWIN B STANLEY was outsprinted in the late stages again. He has enough early speed to get him in a spot where he can hang on for a piece.

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Race 2: MILLARD FARMS: 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS. LEG 1.

(7) ROYAL CAPTAIN was an easy winner on debut when racing on the front. He was wrapped up at the line and should find a similar trip with similar success tonight. (5) CAPTAIN CODE grinded down the leaders and held off a horse to his outside for a solid win. He should be in contention again with another mid-pack trip. (1) ICED picks up Bob McClure this week for his debut where he is likely to go under the radar. If he can manage the rail, I think he can improve. (2) TYMAL STARSTRUCK shipped down to The Meadows for a PASS try, but made an early break. He can be forgiven and rebound for a piece.

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Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(9) D A LETS DANCE was outsprinted in the stretch after making a move to the lead, but raced well against these types. Look for McNair to get aggressive again. (5) ODDS ON BULLFROG should improve on debut despite the sick scratch and his price will be inflated with LPR choosing off. (3) MAJOR MONEY has gotten better with each start and should contend for a spot on the board with J-Mac back on. (4) CORONA SEELSTER was losing ground around the final turn when engaged by rivals, and really didn’t look like he had much left to offer. When the horse in front of him broke, he looked to re-engage and was battling for second. I think he will take too much money to be worth another try on top.

Race 4: POP UP SERIES: NW $25,000 (F&M $31,250) IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN LAST START. LEG 2. AE: LEG 1 STARTERS.

(2) DEVILS ARCH capitalized on a perfect pocket trip last week and could probably work that trip again. He’s been much better in recent months when sitting close. (1) TACTICAL STRIKE has been trotting good miles, but feels a little tough to trust on top as the likely odds on favorite. (4) WHAT ABOUT ELMO could only manage fourth last week as the favorite. He is yet to shake the 0-for win record this season, but will be passing horses late. (6) UPNAWAY BLUE CHIP was much improved in his latest but that could be a product of the trip he got. He needs more to go his way than others.

Race 5: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(1) BRINDLE made a strong impression on debut in a spot where he was expected to win. Jamieson should quarter move him to the lead and look to take them from there. (3) COULD BE KING showed plenty in his debut and could be a sneaky spot play type with J-Mac getting back on. He’s another contender in a nice race. (6) TWIN B JOHN B was another who showed great speed in the late stages as he ended up circling the field. I don’t doubt he’ll pass plenty of horses, but the gap could be too much to catch the one above. (8) RUN TO THE HILLS could be more aggressively handled this week in a race that sets up pretty logically. I don’t think McClure will want to be too far back of Brindle, or else he may have to work first over and tow others into it.

Race 6: MILLARD FARMS: 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS. LEG 1.

(6) I DRINK SHE DRIVES spotted the field about four lengths on debut and got away well back, but he was moving maybe best of anyone in the stretch. Now, he gets away from the rail and finds a shorter field. (4) HALTON HILL was a strong third place finisher from post ten in his debut. He looks like a horse that should continue to improve, and the post relief helps. (3) CAPTAIN MICAH was a solid second behind his stablemate. He has enough early speed to get in position to hit the board. (2) CLASSIFIED can improve if he minds his manners. I would expect a conservative drive.

Race 7: NW $3,100 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,490 PER START IN 2024-25 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000.

I’ll give one more try to (5) EYES OF JUSTICE who had zero chance after the first eight steps of last week’s mile. I think Roy has no choice but to be forward with the improved post. (3) NO ANGEL LIKE ME has tailed off in his last two but is another who could rebound with an aggressive steer. (9) HUNGRY HILL has been facing tougher horses lately, but now draws wide. Is he another early pace presence? He almost has to be from this post. (4) VILLEFRANCHE AS trotted a nice final quarter in his third race off the bench. He should be getting stronger with each start back.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(6) BETTER SCRIPT had an extremely strong turn of foot in the stretch after swinging way wide. He gets the nod from J-Mac over three others and is way the horse to beat tonight. (3) WINDSUN TUXEDO took a big step forward when shipping to Mohawk and capitalized on the even money favorite making a break in front of him. He has done nothing wrong and deserves a long look. (1) NEVERLEAVEHARLAN has the early speed to sit in a stalking spot and hit the board again. (8) D A BODACIOUS might have been on his way to a win last week before getting steppy and making a break. I’m curious what kind of trip Trevor Henry gives him.

Race 9: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 4) RACES OR $20,000 (OS $25,000) LIFETIME.

(3) P L STEVIE picks up James Macdonald after another strong finish last week. She should be up close again and can capitalize. (2) YS QUEEN BETH raced well to finish second behind big favorite Foxy Amee. She is clearly improving and should prove tough again if she minds her manners. (8) KADIDDLE showed way more life in the end of her mile last week. Whether it was a fluke or not, she does her best work on the end of things, and should pass plenty of rivals late. (9) STOVID was battling to the wire after a first over move. McNair could try to blast from this post and look to grab a piece.

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Race 10: POP UP SERIES: NW $25,000 (F&M $31,250) IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN LAST START. LEG 2. AE: LEG 1 STARTERS.

(3) PHOENIX got back to his winning ways in leg one of this series, grinding down the leaders and holding sway to the wire. I would expect another strong showing tonight. (7) WALKONTHEMOON is improving with each start since returning and now picks up the leading driver. An aggressive steer seems in the cards. (1) CADILLAC MOON has been trotting solid miles when sitting close, and could sneak through late for a good piece if things open up. (5) ROSE RUN WHY NOT ships in from Rideau and picks up Louis Roy. He can get a piece tonight.

Race 11: NW $6,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $12,500 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000. AE: N/A $1,970 P/S IN 2024-25.

(1) BET THE BB faces an easier bunch tonight that he has the speed to contend with. Cullen will need to get him in decent order from the rail. Price will be right. (2) WIND BLOWN tried a two move effort from post ten and logically faded. He should take plenty of support off the post switch. (5) ROCKABILLY REBEL N was battling all the way after aggressively handled in the early stages. That’s his game, and although it doesn’t usually result in a win, he could take this field a long way. (7) LEGION SEELSTER has been close in recent weeks and had a tough trip last time. He always brings a good effort. (3) BOOMING ECONOMY has been extremely hit or miss lately. I’ll slot him in to complete tonight’s Hi-5.