Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 7/19

Meet Stats: 78 – 247 / $433.40 (-$59.60)

Best Bets: 11 – 25 / $52.10 (+$2.10)

Spot Plays: 11 – 24 / $84.60 (+$36.60)

Best Bet: FOREFATHER (8TH)

Spot Play: STORMY BEACH (1ST)

Early Pick 5: 2,3,7/4,6/6,7,9/2,5/5,8,9 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 1,2,7/5,8/7/2,4/1,4,6,10 = $9.60

Early Pick 4: 2,5/5,8,9/1,2,7/5,8 = $36

Late Pick 4: 5,8/7/2,4/1,4,6,10 = $16

Race 1: 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(7) STORMY BEACH was flying late at Georgian Downs now he picks up McClure and he should offer a good price here facing better; call to upset. (2) DO YOU SEE IT was game in defeat and he will take his maiden win soon; using. (3) BACKSTREET GAMBLER, a $75,000 Harrisburg purchase, looks ready to rock in this debut and he is the likely favorite. (4) JTS JET comes out of a fast race and he can be closer vs. these; using underneath.

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Race 2: PREFERRED

(4) COMBS HANOVER might be the sharpest horse on the grounds right now and the short field plays right into his hand. The only problem is price is gone now. Is (6) TREASURED TEE better when McNair drives him? Recent evidence suggests that is a strong possibility and that teamster returns tonight; using. (2) PERFETTO is right there every week and he should be in the exotics mix again. (3) MUSCLE FASHION keeps improving and he can take another share here in his second try in the top class.

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Race 3: NW3 (F&M5) or $40,000 (F&M $50,000) LT

This is the easiest spot (9) PRINCESSPARTYPANTS has found since racing resumed and after facing killers like Logan Park and Ritson recently, she gets top call here despite drawing widest. (7) HEAVENSDOR HANOVER kicked in 27 3/5 last week to get 3rd. He is sharp and he'll take his third lifetime win soon; maybe tonight. (6) WARRAWEE WHISPER is another that fits well here and he is the third one that I'll use in the Pick 5. (4) BELIEVER should improve in this second start over the track; consider for the exotics.

Race 4: F&M CLM $18,000 for NW $73,000 LT - Pick 4

(5) MCDELICACY might have paced the best race last week, but she was just too far back to get to the leaders. From a much better post tonight, she gets the nod. (2) TUGGINONCREDIT was game and unwavering despite running in down the lane and she is the one to catch again. (4) HALLSGLENSMAVIS was right there last week, but she had a perfect trip and still came up short. I'm inclined to let this one beat me. (8) ROCKINWITHCUSTARD is likely to change tactics tonight after a failed speed try last week. I see her closing for a small share.

Race 5: F&M Claiming Handicap $12,000 to $16,000

This is a tough class that rarely runs to form week to week. Considering that I'll side with (5) BEHAVENMYSELF who seems to be in a one week: good, next week: bad pattern. This should be her good week. (8) MISS ROCKADALI raced well from the 10-hole last week now she gets a better post and Henry in the bike; using. (9) DIXIE STAR N was perfectly tripped out by Drury to win last week. Can she get the same trip tonight? Maybe. She's on my multi-race tickets. (7) REAR VIEW is right there every week. She's hard to leave off Tri and Super tickets.

Race 6: NW $13,000 L5 or $24,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $35,000 AE: F&M NW $75K LT - Pick 5

(1) DERF HANOVER flashed speed both early and late in a good effort last week and he gets top call vs. these. (7) NIMBUS DEO inherited a win when the leader broke at the wire but that was a good effort and she might have got there anyway, She is a contender here; using. (2) DONATOVER closes well every week and he could pounce on these tonight if he is close enough at the head of the lane. (3) SHESWILDNFREE is sharp and she should be in the exotics mix tonight.

Race 7: NW $8,500 L5 or $17,000 L10 or NW 4LT AE: OPT CLM $25,000 - Pick 4

This is a good spot for sophomore (5) TOKYO SEELSTER who has been facing some very tough three-year-olds recently, top call. (8) MAGICAL WINNER K has enough class for these if he is ready coming off a five-month break; using. (6) ZIG ZAG disappointed as the chalk at this level last week and I'll use him on the bottom only tonight. (3) MISTER OF ALL should be good for a share if he stays flat this week.

Race 8: 5YO and Younger NW2 or $17,000 LT

(7) FOREFATHER brings a new life's mark with him from New Jersey and he moves into the Auciello barn here. He should be tough vs. these. (6) SALTWATER SAVAGE comes off a nice Grassroots effort and he can be an Exacta factor tonight. (3) ISLAND BEACH BOY feels like Fools Gold at this point because he looks so good on paper every week but doesn't get the job done. I'll play to beat him. (8) RHODENA ROAD dug in late to repel a challenger that slid up the inside in a nice effort to break his maiden but these are tougher; using underneath.

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Race 9: NW $18,000 L5 or $30,000 L9 or NW 8 or $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $50,000

(2) DREAM NATION avoids the white-hot Combs Hanover here and he should have a big shot against these. (4) ONLY FOR JUSTICE powered his way to a new life's mark last week here and he should be a threat right back. (5) GRANDMA HEIDI will show speed again and I see her hanging around for a small share. (1) FASHION FRENZIE needs a clean line here racing between sires stakes engagements; small share predicted.

Race 10: NW $8,500 L5 or $17,000 L10 or NW4 LT AE: OPT CLM $25,000

(4) BAUTISTA takes a big drop here and he should have a great shot to reverse his form and take a win vs. these. (6) TEDDYS LITTLEANGEL probably squandered a win when she jumped it off in the lane and it looked like she caused (10) O NARUTAC PERFETTO's break in stride. Both are capable of a high placing here if they behave. (1) TOCCOA FALLS should be good for a share in this class but post 1 may not be the greatest for him; using on the bottom. (9) MAGIC NIGHT comes off a good effort and he can take a share vs. these.