Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 7/15

Top Pick Stats: 377 - 1112 / $2,090.50 (-$133.50)

Best Bets: 57 - 105 / $183.50 (-$26.50)

Spot Plays: 25 - 102 / $231.90 (+$27.90)

Best Bet: THE CANAM BANKER (8TH)

Spot Play: SLAYIN THEDAY AWAY (2ND)

Early Pick 5: 2,3,5,8/7/1,6,7/3,7/1,3,4,9 = $19.20

Late Pick 5: 1,2,5,8/1,3/3/1,3/1,6 = $6.40

Early Pick 4: 3,7/1,3,4,9/1,2,5,8/1,3 = $12.80

Late Pick 4: 1,3/3/1,3/1,6 = $1.60

Race 1: NW $21,500 L5 AE: NW8 (F&M9) LT AE: NW $28,500 L5 to draw outside **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

We get a competitive field to kick off the early Pick 5. (8) DISTANCE LEARNING is one of two dropping from the Preferred 2 and him drawing widest should keep his price viable; slight nod. (5) NEW RULES missed some time then tried racing first up in the same race that the choice exits. He could improve sharply here, and he is on my Pick 5 ticket. (2) ESPLOSIONE is on a roll and the way he is winning races; he could be up to this class hike; using. (3) SERENITY CRUISE has improving form and she almost blew up the tote board last time. She can land in the exotics at a price here.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 3. 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS

(7) SLAYIN THEDAY AWAY, winner of four Prospect Series races in his last five starts, tries the Grassroots after being sold. He goes for Montini now and gets the leading driver in the bike and he can improve sharply tonight; top call. (2) STOMPER TOM has been right there in six straight starts and he gets a key driver change to Roy now. He can be an Exacta factor in this spot. (5) NZURI comes off a sharp effort and he gets McClure back tonight, but he is 0 for 6 facing some rivals that have noses for the wire; using underneath. (1) ROYAL DUHARAS comes into this race on a roll, but I prefer the top two and see him getting a smaller share this time.

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Race 3: NW $1,500 L3 or $9,950 L7

(6) COLIGNY HANOVER draws best after chasing a well-meant chalk around the track. This is a good spot for him, and he gets top billing. (7) WOODMERE FENN figures as one of the main contenders exiting a tough race and Jones will likely sit closer with him in this spot. He’s hard to leave off Pick 5 tickets. (1) TAYLORS CREDIT’s recent form is good, and he is in with an upset chance here if he gets a better start. (5) BETTOR OF THE WEST is worth a look for the exotics making his first start out of Nixon’s barn.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 3. 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 4

(3) MAGIC DEALER was no match for a colt that was taking a new life’s mark last time but there aren’t any in here that look ready to trot in 1:53 1/5; top call. (7) JACK N ABS fits well here, and he gets McNair back. He will probably be right there if he stays flat this time. (6) MARKET BANKER’s form is improving but this is a tougher spot. I’ll use him underneath. (4) LMC MR SQUISHY can be a threat if he stays flat but his recent gait issues are worrisome. I’d need a big price to back this gelding.

Race 5: Horses that have started for a purse of $15K or less in 1 of L3 AE: NW1 in 2024

(3) RICKY RESOLVE took a win here last year and he interestingly gets Jamieson in the bike tonight. He exits some good races at Georgian Downs, and he gets a slight nod here. (4) KAMERAN HANOVER was motoring at the wire after lacking room at a critical stage of the race and he should be a threat here; using. (1) CLASSIC MAGIC has a better chance tonight starting from the rail; price look for multi-race tickets. (9) ALL GAS NO BRAKES stickhandled his way through traffic to get a win last week. His 28 late speed puts him in the equation here and he is another in with a shot.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 2: 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 5

This Gold event is a terrific betting race with several ways you can go. I’m going to take a price stab on (8) AQUINAS HANOVER who produced big late speed in his debut raced over the smaller Rideau Carlton track. (2) STONEBRIDGE WIZARD got the best trip last time and he surged late to steal the win away from (1) STERLING CHOICE. Both of these colts are live contenders here. (5) CENTURY LUCIFER made several moves and still prevailed, and he is another in with a good chance.

Race 7: NW $9,800 L5 or $16,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 - Pick 4

(1) LOCATELLI drops to a logical spot here and he picks up Henry which means a more aggressive steer is likely coming. I’ll give him a slight nod over the other dropper (3) MRMAYOR HANOVER who beat the choice by 1/2 length last week. (4) BELLA CAVALLA is in peak form, and she races off the Moreau claim here. I think one or both of the top two will prove to be too tough for her, though. (6) SPARTAN GENERAL improved in his second start, and he can close for another share here.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 3. 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS

(3) THE CANAM BANKER just jogged in Dresden, and he finished 2nd to two good horses in his previous two starts to the Dresden crush job. He will be a single for me tonight. (6) WHEELZABLAZIN hasn’t missed the Exacta in his past five starts and he can continue that trend here. (4) MASTERWORK raced Thursday night in Ottawa and he broke as the 1 to 20 chalk. He can land a share here if he stays flat. (2) HILARIOUS ARCHIE gets the leading driver tonight and he is worth a look for the exotics.

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Race 9: Winners of 4 (F&M5) but not more than 6 (F&M7) or $90,750 LT

(1) BRACE FOR LANDING finds another field that he can control coming off a lifetime best score last week; call to repeat. (3) EDEN ONTHEHILL has only one win this year, but he has been facing tougher. He could do here if he can find the choice’s pocket leaving the gate; using. (2) MASS HYSTERIA comes in off a nice qualifier at Grand River. He should be in the exotics mix tonight. (4) SAFE CONDUCT had a short 2023 campaign, and he broke in his first start back this year. He is hard to trust at this point.

Race 10: NW $4,250 L5 AE: NW $26,500 in 2024 AE: N/A $1,435 P/S IN 2023 OR 2024

(6) POINTS NORTH hasn’t raced this low since October 2022 and he crushed by more than four lengths that night. He should be very tough to beat at this level starting from the best post. (1) PALLADIUM HANOVER produced a nice closing effort last week and he is the one that can pick up the pieces if the choice gets in some kind of a duel in the first 3/4; using. (5) SOUTHWIND SAMBUCCA is another dropper that figures to be better in this spot. He should be part of the exotics. (8) ARTIES IDEAL is in excellent form, but he must overcome a wide post here. I’ll use him underneath. (7) LETS GO JUDE gets McNair for this return. He is worth a look for use on the bottom of the exotics at a price.