Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 7/14

Top Pick Stats: 49/167 (-$130.40)

Best Bets: 5/15 (-$9.50); Spot Plays: 2/15 (-$19.60)

Best Bet: WHAT ABOUT ELMO (Race 9)

Spot Play: HOWMAC VICTOR (Race 8)

Early Pick 5: 1,2,10/5/2/5,7/3,6 $2.40

Late Pick 5: 4/1,5,8,9/2/2/1,4 $1.60

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(1) EYE SEE YOU never got a chance to show what she had in her career debut. Expect a much better performance tonight. (2) JUST ALL OUT gets leading driver James Macdonald for her career debut after two strong qualifier wins. It’s easier to trust her more than others. (10) BELIEVE was kept to task in the final eighth of her winning qualifier. She could be forward despite the wide draw, but I’m unsure if she will have as much late. (6) GREEN MONI QUEEN showed more in her second morning prep and got McClure’s nod. It’s all about progression with these types. No reason why she can’t step forward.

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Race 2: POP UP SERIES: NW $25,000 (F&M $31,250) IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN LAST START. LEG 1.

(5) PHOENIX has to be aggressively handled, right? He has been up against tougher competition for most of the season, and the miles he trots would regularly beat these. (1) SPARKS FLY got a confidence booster as the big favorite, and races for connections that you can trust to have one ready to blast off the car. He is the other contender in this potential two horse affair. (3) NEW LEGACY is a classy veteran who has made his mark as one of the best trotters in PEI over the last couple of years. He makes his Mohawk Park debut tonight and could easily flaunt his back class at a price. (4) TREGARON has early speed but it only carries him so far. He will be looking to hold on late.

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Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 3. 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(2) OCEANVIEW RUMOURS was a strong winner two starts ago when last seen in the Grassroots. She stands out in this lackluster bunch. (3) LILY LACE makes her Grassroots debut this season and makes sense as an exacta partner for the #2 if she sits close. (1) IVY LYNN could win this race if she puts it all together, but it’s getting harder to trust that she can go out and do that, especially with last week’s break in stride. (7) RESOLVED has been better since adding Lasix but will need to be even better to contend for the win, and I don’t see it tonight.

Race 4: 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(5) CORONA SEELSTER raced extremely well considering what he was up against in his second career start. He took some air on the outside and earned a minor check, but that experience will help him tremendously tonight. (7) D A BODACIOUS is another son of Cattlewash who appears to be expected to do good things right away. His latest qualifier was extremely strong, and he paced away from his rivals without any urging from Trevor Henry. (4) TAHOE SEELSTER is an interesting shipper from Northside Downs who should drop more than a few seconds when racing on the Mohawk oval. We’ll see how good he is tonight. (2) BARBARO could take more money than he deserves because of the flashy time. He can definitely improve, but we have not seen him do any actual work yet.

Race 5: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(6) TIMELESS gets away from the rail where she got away poorly in her debut. She should be closer to the action tonight and has a big license to improve in start number two of the career. (3) TYMAL ELECTRA was third in her June 27 qualifier behind M E Laurel, who was favored in last Friday’s OSS Gold. She could bring a little bit of value. (2) FIGURATIVELY took a big step forward in her latest qualifier. If she brings that speed, she should get a major piece of this purse. (4) HP IMAGINE was outsprinted in the lane by two decent looking fillies. She can be forward and grab a piece.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 3. 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(4) BRIGHT GREEN is tough to read right now, but she is back in the entry box just ten days after a sick scratch. If she brings even 90 percent, I think she gets the job done. (2) P L STEVIE got the job done from post ten in her latest and finds herself back in Grassroots action where she has raced well. Even if she is outsprinted off the car, she won’t be too far back in a short field. (5) ALL STAR ANGEL does better work when racing from further back. She won’t have to pass many to hit the board. (3) IBELIEVEINANGELS picked up a check in her latest behind big favorite Foxy Amee. She is racing fine right now and is in the mix for another check.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(5) ELBOWS UP is a well bred filly who posted a winning qualifier last week. She was kept to task in the lane and finished well. She draws a perfect post to get early position. (8) SARAQUEL had to maneuver inside of a horse that broke in front of her (in that same July 4 qualifier that Elbows Up won), but it didn’t seem to bother her one bit, and she finished well. Trevor Henry gets the call for her debut and he should have this filly forward off the car. (1) MARY J did nothing wrong in her two qualifiers and her gait was just fine when leaving from the rail on June 27. She is a logical contender on debut. (9) PRESS ON BALLYKEEL is one of the keys to the race. If she gets an aggressive steer, she could be in for a strong effort.

Race 8: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(2) HOWMAC VICTOR was doing his best work in the final sixteenth of the mile after seeming to have a perfect second over tow. He could be closer to the lead this week and is where I’ll lean in this tough group. (5) DIRTY LIL PIGLET came up short after another speed try but was battling late. He is tricky to place right now. (1) STASH IT AWAY has used his grinding style successfully in recent efforts but I’m not sure it bodes well for him in the long run. He will need to be extremely quick from the rail to avoid another overland journey. (7) KYLES ART may need one to get back to form after following a wicked pace. If not, he could be another early pace threat.

Race 9: POP UP SERIES: NW $25,000 (F&M $31,250) IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN LAST START. LEG 1.

(2) WHAT ABOUT ELMO hasn’t been able to make his style work against tougher competition. The big drop to this Pop Up should help him immensely, and it seems logical to assume a more aggressive drive is in store. (4) DEVILS ARCH drops in class from facing tough claimers and tends to do better when up close. I don’t think he has as much in the final quarter as the #2, but he should play a major factor in this race as well. (3) WALKONTHEMOON has made two solid starts at Kawartha Downs to kick off his season. He can step forward and hit the board in his return to Mohawk Park. (5) YANK MY HALO will get an aggressive steer one day, and it will completely turn his form around. His style is not conducive to winning, even at this level.

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Race 10: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 3. 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(1) FOXY AMEE cruised in her latest when dropping from the Gold level. She is the one to beat. (4) TAHONTA has been knocking at the door of another win and may try to get the golden trip instead of the #2. If she continues to improve, I wouldn’t put it past her to win this race. (2) SHAMPOO GIRL picks up James Macdonald for the first time this season after a pair of solid efforts. She is likely to sit close and be in the mix. (5) YS QUEEN BETH may look for a conservative route this time around. She can pass horses late to pick up a piece.

Race 11: NW $6,900 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $12,500 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000.

(8) BOLD SPIRIT battled the entire way after being pushed to a quick first half. He raced extremely well when shipping in and can get the job done this week. (10) WIND BLOWN could win in :48 and a piece or tire after setting a wicked first half pace. I have no idea which, but I know you can’t leave him off tickets. (6) LARCENY could be seen as one to quickly dismiss, but he is better than recent lines show. He needs to be put into the race in the early stages, but that hasn’t happened recently. (7) LEGION SEELSTER relegated Bold Spirit to the pocket in that aforementioned race and was another in the three-across photo for win. He is sharp right now despite not picking up any wins and should contend again. (4) WANNABEABIGSTAR broke my heart at 17-1 when he got nosed out as my Spot Play. You’ll probably get a similar price, honestly, and if the pace gets hot enough, he’ll be passing horses late.