Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 7/11

Meet Stats: 336 - 1089 / $1,793.50 (-$375.00)

Best Bets: 58 - 103 / $206.30 (+$0.30)

Spot Plays: 29 - 104 / $186.60 (-$21.40)

Best Bet: HESINCONTROL (10TH)

Spot Play: DINNER AND DANCING (3RD)

Early Pick 5: 3,5,7/1,3,4/3,4,7/3,4,6/5,9 = $32.40

Late Pick 5: 6,7/1,5,10/3,5/2,3/8 = $4.80

Early Pick 4: 3,4,6/5,9/6,7/1,5,10 = $36

Late Pick 4: 3,5/2,3/8/1,2,4,5,9 = $20

Race 1: NW $2,200 L3 **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(3) PIRATE HANOVER makes his third start back and he appears to be coming around. This is a field that he should beat on memory and he gets top billing to kick off the Pick 5. (5) U F BETTORS HANOVER is an obvious contender on paper in this spot, but his typical racing style often leaves him with too much to do in the lane. I'd be careful to not take a short price here. (7) HERESTHATMANAGAIN has a good record this year, he gets out of the second tier tonight and he gets the leading driver for this. He is the third one that I'll use in the Pick 5. (4) RHYTHM IN MOTION is worth a look for the exotics on the barn change to Marfisi.

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Race 2: Pop-Up series for horses that have started for a purse of $10K or less in 1 of L4 AE: 1st and 2nd Leg starters

(3) ILLGETMYOWN THANKS looked good closing in 27-flat to win a leg last week and he gets the call to repeat. (1) WILDRIVERBUMBLEBEE was bet down to even money last week and he failed to get a check. He gets a key driver change to Henry tonight which will surely move him up, but it can also mean he will get overbet again. Your call. (4) ISLANDSPECIALMAJOR dropped and popped at Georgian in what amounted to a pseudo training mile for him. He is an obvious contender in this spot; using. (5) HUNTER HILL raced great last week and he should be in the exotics mix again.

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Race 3: 2YO Fillies

(4) DINNER AND DANCING is a Stay Hungry debutante that qualified in 2 minutes and we've already seen several of them with the same formula win in the past couple of weeks. Why not this filly, too? (7) VALLEY OF FEAR will get bet bringing a 1:53 1/5 mile home from Scioto Downs and she is an obvious contender. (3) STORYBOOK BELLA was a good 3rd on debut and she should be a threat here. (1) PASSION HANOVER is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics on debut.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES Leg 2, 2YO Fillies - Pick 4

(4) SISTER TWISTER is by a sire that was very good at 2 and I like the way she passed horses in the back 1/2 of her qualifier. I'll give her the nod on debut tonight. (3) KENOGAMI COURAGE is the only winner in the field and she picks up Roy and gets a good post tonight. She's hard to leave off multi-race tickets. (6) THE BALLYKEEL DEAL gets McClure tonight following a good debut effort and she is another in with a shot. There is reason to suspect that (11) SALLA might be pretty good but starting from the second tier on debut makes a win unlikely. I'll use her underneath.

Race 5: Horses that have started for a purse of $15,000 or less in 1 of L4

(5) WARRAWEE WHISPER squeaks into this condition having raced for a $13K purse four starts back and he beat a good field here last week. He is the one to catch and beat. (9) MISTER MAGIC is going great guns right now and he will offer a much better price tonight facing tougher and starting from the 10-hole. I'll be using him on multi-race tickets. (7) BAUTISTA is sharp but this is a tougher assignment; small share predicted. (1) HESOHOT HANOVER is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics on the driver change tonight.

Race 6: 5YO and Younger NW2 or $18,500 LT - Pick 5

This race should come down to (7) DREAMFAIR ARNIE B and (6) KATIES BET who both come in off good 2nds to some sharp colts. I'll give the nod to the former who will likely get the jump on the latter. (2) BLUEMOON BAYAMA moves into the Moreau barn having finished in the top two in all four of his starts to date. He is in the mix here. (5) WHISKEY BREAK wasn’t disgraced racing in Gold company. He can land in the exotics here.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES Leg 2, 2YO Fillies

(10) DEALIN FASHION raced decently on debut now she picks up Roy. She looks as good as any in here and she is sure to offer a square price from post 10; top call. (5) CUNNING CONNIE quickly drops from Golds into the Grassroots and she could lead these all the way; using. (1) WARAWEE YAMA produced good kickers in both qualifiers and she should be in the exotics mix in debut tonight. (3) DREAMFAIR LEAH improved enough in her second qualifier to suggest that she will contend at first asking.

Race 8: Pop-Up series for horses that have started for a purse of $10K or less in 1 of L4 AE: 1st and 2nd Leg starters - Pick 4

(3) BETTORBEFLYIN was too far back in a slow early pace last week to make any impact late. His price goes up now and I think McNair keeps him closer early in the mile; top call. (5) ALEX HAVING FUN is the obvious one to beat coming off a dominant winning effort last week. (7) GOOD AND SWEET tries hard every week and frequently hits the board. He is in the mix again. (6) RAYS KREDIT can pass a few of these late and take a share.

Race 9: OPEN

(3) PATRIARCH HANOVER gets to dodge Forbidden Trade this week and he should control this race from the outset. (2) DREAM NATION is another that will be happy to see Forbidden Trade missing from the post parade and he is the most likely upsetter of the choice. (1) MACALLAN is having a great year and he probably will stay covered up and rally late for another share tonight. (4) LOGAN PARK is in easier tonight and that should get him a share.

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Race 10: Pop-Up series for horses that have started for a purse of $10K or less in 1 of L4 AE: 1st and 2nd Leg starters

(8) HESINCONTROL was expected to improve with the driver change to McNair last week, but maybe not to the tune of a 1:49 2/5 life's best blowout win. He is hard to go against coming off that mile. (3) ROYAL RENEGADE was good last week, too, making two moves to score the upset and he can be an Exacta factor here. (2) BOLT POWER chased the choice in vain last week and he likely faces a similar scenario tonight; using underneath. (6) DRAGON ENERGY has been good in both legs so far and he is in the exotics mix again.

Race 11: NW $9,000 L5 or $23,000 L10 AE: Starters for a purse of $16,000 or less in 1 of L4 AE: OPT CLM $40,000

(1) COOL MUSCLE was good last week but not even a 26 4/5 kicker could get him past razor-sharp Mister Magic. Moving inside I'll give him top billing here. (4) TRUFFLES TOO has been right there in two straight in this class and he is an obvious threat tonight. (2) ARRAKIS is racing well and if he can find a pocket trip tonight, he may notch the upset; using. (9) FREE WILLY HANOVER is another who could get the job done on the class drop tonight in a race that demands wide multi-race coverage. (5) ALL WRAPPED UP is a brain teaser. He is capable but typically not a good bet at short odds because he is usually trip dependent. I'll use him underneath here.