Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 7/10

Top Pick Stats: 300 - 926 / $1,565.70 (-$286.60)

Best Bets: 49 - 85/ $174.70 (+4.70)

Spot Plays: 16 - 86/ $94.10 (-$77.90)

Best Bet: FABRIZIO N (5TH)

Spot Play: MIDNIGHT MIRACLE (8TH)

Early Pick 5: 4,6/5,6/3,4/1,2,5,8/7 = $6.40

Late Pick 5: 2,5,7,8/4,7/1,6/6,7/4,9 = $12.80

Early Pick 4: 3,4/1,2,5,8/2,5,7,8/4,7 = $12.80

Late Pick 4: 4,7/1,6/6,7/4,9 = $3.20

Race 1: CLM HDCP $13,000 to $18,000 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(6) MILITARY SECRET was well-bet last week shipping in off a sharp win in Sarnia and he came within one-fifth of his lifetime mark. He will be very hard to beat here if he comes anywhere close to last week’s effort. (4) CORTEZ THE KILLER was a good 3rd behind the choice when claimed by a barn that has won at a 25% clip so far this year. He is the other one that I'll use in the Pick 5. (7) MERCENARY drops and he will likely get put into this race leaving the gate. He should be good for a share this time. (3) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ is a good one to use underneath because he rarely misses the top four.

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Race 2: CLM HDCP $25,000 to $35,000

(5) SKYLAR keeps racing iron-tough, and he keeps getting claimed. He is the one to beat at this level until he shows he isn't. (6) DANCE MACHINE paced a 54-flat back 1/2 with McNair driving for the first time last week and I could see him upsetting the choice with the right trip. (7) FLYING ART A looked like he had the choice put away at the 1/8th pole last week and he couldn’t seal the deal. I'll use him underneath here. (8) ROCK AND T -WIST likely takes another small share in this spot.

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Race 3: 5YO and younger winners of 2 (F&M3) but not more than 4 (F&M5) AE: 4YO and 5YO OPT CLM $50,000

(3) WARRAWEE YES rallied to get a share against some very good fillies in New York and with her form improving she can take her third win of the year tonight. (4) WARRAWEE XALT was second-over in fast miles in both races since being taken for $50,000 three starts back. I think Roy rolls him early this time and that makes him dangerous. (6) STORMONT MABEL will likely race close to the front throughout again and land a share. (7) ANGELWITHATTITUDE's decent late kick should get her another share here.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 1: 2YO PACING COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 4

Plenty of ways you could go here with these lightly raced rookie pacing colts. (8) T H MCMURRY looked so good winning his qualifier that he was bet down to 1 to 5 on debut last week. You don't see it in the chart line, but he got out of gear leaving the gate and came within an eyelash of breaking while losing several lengths. That did his chances in, and he will likely get lost on the tote board now; call to upset. (5) MIRAGE HANOVER powered home in 25 1/5 in a stake to kick off his career and he is likely the one to beat here. (1) BEST NIGHT EVER stayed covered up then exploded at huge odds to win his debut. His price will be lower now, but he is in with a shot. (2) WATCHING SUNSET. Full brother to good local conditioned horse Night Watchman (17 wins, $191K, 1:51 1/5F), looked very good in both qualifiers and he is another that is worth a look on debut here.

Race 5: NW $2,250 LAST 3 STARTS. AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $8,800 OR LESS L3. AE: NW $26,800 IN 2023

(7) FABRIZIO N drops to the bottom and he has a great chance to pop tonight. (6) GOING FAST is in his best form, but he is 1 for 18 this year and the choice's 'A' game is likely too much for him; using underneath. (5) NIGHT SHADOW made a nice late close for 2nd last week and he should come on late again for a share. (8) G A SPEED SAMMY is another that should close late for a slice.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 1: 2YO PACING COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 5

(2) NIJINSKY took all the action at the windows, broke at the start, then made a nice recovery to get 3rd. He can make amends here. (5) ROSE RUN ZOLTAN was picked off by a colt who was pacing a 25 3/5 kicker last week. He should be a threat right back. (7) CONTROL THE PIPER got everything his own way on the engine and he jogged in his debut. I'm inclined to try to beat him, but we don't know that he needs a perfect trip to win, either. (8) COWBOY CARGO is from the first crop of local star Jimmy Freight who has had a few that raced that have looked good early. McNair will surely move this colt up off his qualifiers; price look.

Race 7: 5YO and younger winners of 2 (F&M3) but not more than 4 (F&M5) AE: 4YO and 5YO OPT CLM $50,000 - Pick 4

(7) SOUTHWIND COORS just won a Grand Circuit race so he should have no problem beating this bunch assuming he is tight enough after having three weeks between starts. (4) LAST PAGE FIRST is an ascending sophomore trotting filly that could give the choice a scare here if that rival doesn’t bring something close to his best. (3) BELLA CAVALLA races off the Gillis claim and she will be in the exotics mix again. (2) GRATEFUL can close ground late again to finish on the edges.

Race 8: Winners of (FM 5) but not more than 7 (FM 8) or $80,000 LIFETIME. AE: 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $60,000

In-form (6) MIDNIGHT MIRACLE will likely offer some value here as the probable second choice to streaking (1) MISCHEVIOUS ROSE. I think the former is capable of outfinishing the latter and he gets the nod. (3) STABLE GENIUS figures to get a better trip tonight after parking the mile last time. He is in the exotics mix. (4) DEALIN WITH DEWEY exits the same race as the choice and he should be on or near the front early then stick around for a slice.

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Race 9: NW $4,000 L5 AE: NW2 L10 AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $6,200 OR LESS LAST 2 STARTS

(7) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER is supposed to drop and pop vs. this field tonight and he gets top billing. (6) TIE ONE ON has a similar pattern as recent winners for this barn that shipped in off 'B' track wins, and he could lead these a long way; using. (3) SERIOUSLY HANOVER came up against a leader that no one was catching last week. He is another in with a shot here. More was expected of (8) PIRATE HANOVER last week but the winner was simply too good and too fast. He can be an exotics factor tonight.

Race 10: NW $8,000 L5 AE: OPT CLM $45,000

(9) MACALLAN faces much easier here and Young will probably look to send him right down the road; top call. (4) FLEURIE raced decently when making her first start following a brief rest and she has a chance to take her first win of the year in this second start back; using. (1) ALL WRAPPED UP will likely drop back from the rail and fire late again. I prefer to use him underneath fearing he will get too far back early. (3) SIMCOE SEELSTER turned for home with the lead then he jumped it off last week. I wonder if he looks to sit and rally this time. (10) VICTOR INVICTUS inherited a win when a rival with a big lead broke in the lane. Stepping up here, he probably rallies late for the smallest share.