Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 7/1

Top Pick Stats: 335 - 1009 / $1866.40 (-$151.60)

Best Bets: 52 - 95 / $170.60 (-$19.40)

Spot Plays: 19 - 92 / $200.30 (+$16.30)

Best Bet: GHOSTLY CASPER (1ST)

Spot Play: BOLD SPIRIT (8TH)

Early Pick 5: 6,7/2,7,8/8,9/4,5,6/2,4,6 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 4,8/5,8/3,7/5,6/3,5,6,10 = $12.80

Early Pick 4: 4,5,6/2,4,6/4,8/5,8 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 5,8/3,7/5,6/3,5,6,10 = $6.40

Race 1: NW $10,050 L5 AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW 6 LT OR NW $11,500 IN 2024 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

This is a big class drop for (6) GHOSTLY CASPER and he will likely prove tough to beat in this spot at a short price. (7) TACTICAL STRIKE is on a roll, with his only loss in the last four starts coming to budding superstar Highland Kismet. He will likely be the one to catch when they turn for home. He is the other one that I’ll use in the early Pick 5. (2) YO MISTER drops, and he keeps Macdonald in the bike. He can take a share here. (1) KAMERAN HANOVER is a good one to use on the bottom because he sits trips that facilitate him outlasting some rivals that do more work during the mile.

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Race 2: 4YO & YOUNGER NW $15,000 LIFETIME. AE: 4 YR OLDS NW $2,200 IN 2024

(7) WALLACE HARTLEY might have been a bit short last week when he couldn’t fend off (2) WATCHING SUNSET, who was pacing his way to a new lifetime mark. I’ll side with the former to turn the tables getting back on a 7-day rotation tonight. (8) D A WICKED SHINE was racing well before he broke in a Grassroots race. He will be a speed threat that is in with a shot if he stays pacing tonight. (5) LOTTO MAX is another that drops out of Grassroots company, but he couldn’t convert as a big chalk two starts back. I’ll use him underneath.

Race 3: HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF LAST 3 STARTS. W/O $6,000 L5 N/E. AE: N/A $1,355 P/S IN 2023/24

(8) REACTOR NOW A slid over to Grand River for a win and racing for that $7,200 purse qualifies him for this class. He fits well here, and he gets the call to repeat. I thought (9) COME ON ARTIE raced okay last week when finishing 3rd to a big chalk. If he leaves with the choice, I could see him finding the pocket and I’ll toss him in the Pick 5. (3) COLIGNY HANOVER passed some horses late in a fast mile and I can see him sneaking into the Tri or Super here. (5) SERIOUS DRAGON, 6th behind the choice at Grand River, should be able to get a small share ay this level.

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Race 4: NW $1,500 L3 AE: NW $16,650 IN 2024 - Pick 4

(6) ROCKME ROLLME drops to the lowest conditioned level here and I have no doubt that Macdonald will look to bottom out the field with him; top call. (5) RILKOFF has been closing well every week and he will fall into a trip that facilitates a win soon; price look for the multis. (4) PALLADIUM HANOVER is another dropper that should improve in this spot, and I think Cullen leaves with him and possibly rides the choice’s pocket; using. (8) CAPITANO ITALIANO’s late kick should play better at this level; using underneath.

Race 5: 5YO & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 LT

Hard to predict intent here with several Grassroots horses between sires stakes starts, but (4) CENTURY KOMODO was impressive winning on 6/18 and he has hit his best stride. I’ll give him the nod to repeat. (6) LAKERS BANK has won three of his last four and his sharp gate speed often helps him fond the best trip. He’s hard to leave out starting from the best post tonight. (2) MCWICKED TIME produced a nice closing kick last time and he is another in with a shot here. (5) LOGAN BEHOLD had an adventurous trip last time. His best puts him right there with these.

Race 6: 3YO COLTS & GELDINGS: PROSPECT SERIES STARTERS IN 2024 - Pick 5

(4) LAMBORGHINI LOU handled five of tonight’s seven rivals last week as the 3 to 5 chalk and he should be tough as he seeks the repeat starting from a good post. (8) BALLYKEEL PAINTER rallied well for 2nd in that race and the wisest post might be better for him than last week’s rail. I could see him blasting and getting position this time and I’ll use him on multi-race tickets. (5) ALL BETS ON RED fired a fast kicker to get 4th last week and he can pass some of these and take another slice. (1) MOONWALKER hasn’t missed the board in six starts and he was only beaten two lengths by the choice last week. He is in the exotics mix.

Race 7: NW $10,050 LAST 5 STARTS AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW 6 LT OR NW $11,500 IN 2024 - Pick 4

This is a big drop for (5) DERF HANOVER and he likely holds a fitness advantage over some classy returning rivals; slight nod. (8) SAFE CONDUCT hasn’t raced since last July, but he is fast enough to beat these if he gets put into the race from his wide post; using. (2) BELLA CAVALLA could gain no ground as the top two sprinted away with a 27 2/5 kicker last week. She is in the mix most weeks, however, and she should take another slice here. (4) TWIN B ARCHIE was a killer at two and three but a disappointment at four. Considering he only raced four times last year he may have had some recurring physical issues. I’ll watch him here in this five-year-old debut.

Race 8: 5YO & YOUNGER, WINNERS OF 2 BUT NOT MORE THAN 5 RACES OR $45,000 LT

(3) BOLD SPIRIT faces tougher here as he seeks a threepeat but it appears that he can get a good trip racing near the front and his sharp late speed can get him there at a square price. (7) SERGEANT SLAUGHTER took a new life’s mark racing off the Auciello claim but he stalked some wild fractions then capitalized late. He is an obvious threat, but I don’t see him pacing another sub-1:50 mile here. (8) LEAVE IT TO LEO jogged at this level then he missed three weeks due to lameness. Your call here; I’d demand a price. (5) BETTOR B SIRIUS comes off a couple of tough trips. He can be part of the exotics starting from the middle of the gate tonight.

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Race 9: PREFERRED HANDICAP PP'S #1-4 DRAWN. PP'S #5-7 DRAWN

(6) LOGAN PARK was roughed up in the Open on 6/15 and it took a Canadian record by (5) GAINES HANOVER to beat him. The former figures to get an easier trip up front tonight and he gets top billing. The latter is razor sharp, but he was the beneficiary of some front end battling that night. I wonder if he will blast here and look to race in the choice’s pocket. (7) FASHION FRENZIE was 3rd in that same mile, and he will probably face a similar fate tonight. (2) OSCEOLA is yet another that exits that same race, and he is in the exotics mix here.

Race 10: NW $4,900 L5 AE: NW $2,000 L3 OR N/A $1,475 P/S IN 2023 OR 2024

(5) MOMAS SON BYRNE was never going to be allowed to make front last time, now he drops to a better spot, and he draws perfectly for a big speed try; top call. (3) REVOLT is starting to look like the best version of himself and he should make his presence felt in the lane again despite rising in class; using. (10) SMOKESTACK followed a leader that raced out of his skin. A similar effort could put him in the winner’s circle in this spot. He is another possibility for late multi-race tickets. (6) HESINCONTROL dropped and popped, and he looked good doing it. His best gives him a chance. (7) RON is typically trip dependent and he will probably get over bet on the class drop here. I’ll play to beat him.