Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 6/3

Top Pick Stats: 276 - 845 / $1547.40 (-$142.60)

Best Bets: 46 - 79 / $151.20 (-$6.80)

Spot Plays: 13 - 76 / $157.00 (+$5.00)

Best Bet: PASSARINO (8TH)

Spot Play: ROCK AND TWIST (1ST)

Early Pick 5: 1,2,6/5,7,8/1/1,6,7/4,7,8,10 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 6,8/4,5/1/3,4/2,10 = $3.20

Early Pick 4: 1,6,7/4,7,8,10/6,8/4,5 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 4,5/1/3,4/2,10 = $1.60

Race 1: NW $9,750 L5 or $15,800 L8 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 AE: N/A $1,610 P/S in 2023/24 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(1) ROCK AND TWIST was in a tough spot on the backstretch last week and he snuck into the flow in time then chased down a loose leader. This is a tougher field, but he is in great form, and he gets the call to repeat. (6) P L OZZY is the obvious threat coming off a strong effort in a fast mile and he is hard to leave off the Pick 5. (2) SWEET DEISEL has been a win machine this year and he seeks a repeat racing off the Merner claim. He is another in with a shot in a good betting race. (3) SMOKESTACK had no shot in a 1:47 4/5 mile last week. He can rebound and get a small slice here.

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Race 2: Horses that have started for a purse of $15K or less in 1 of L4

This is a good spot for (8) BUCK DANCER to get back to his winning ways and he should get an aggressive steer from Filion; top call. (7) ESPLOSIONE exploded late last week but the winner got too good of a trip and wasn’t going to be caught. Off that improved effort, I’ll use him in the Pick 5. (5) TALISMANO had no chance with the trip he got last time now he gets Macdonald in the bike; price look. (3) BUCKTOBER fits best at this level and he will likely blast for position and stick around for a share.

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Race 3: PREFERRED

(1) FASHION FRENZIE and (3) LOGAN PARK knock heads again and I don’t see much value using both in the early Pick 5. I’ll side with the former coming off the fastest mark of any of these this year. (5) GAINES HANOVER is helped by the smaller field here as he should get a better trip this time. He should be part of the exotics. (6) LOOKS LIKE MONI always closes late and he is a good one to use on the bottom of Tri and Super bets.

Race 4: NW $9,750 L5 or $15,800 L8 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 AE: N/A $1,610 P/S in 2023/24 - Pick 4

(2) THE GREEK FREAK comes off a good try where he fired early and late and just couldn’t reach a strong leader. He is cycling to a win and there is a good chance it will come here. (6) ROCKABILLY REBEL N jogged last time he raced this low and there is a good chance that he will wake up in this spot; using. (7) ROCKME ROLLME is another dropper that figures to be a threat here. He will likely get sent forward leaving the gate this week and he does his best work racing near the front. (4) BEYOND BETTER is sharp but he often closes too late. I’ll use him on the bottom here.

Race 5: NW $1,750 L3

(10) CAPTAIN BUTLER gets Ratchford back here and I expect a more aggressive steer. I’ll take a price swing with him from post 10. (7) SERIOUS DRAGON is obvious on paper dropping out of a fast race where he showed improvement, but I don’t love that he sat a perfect pocket and lost positions late. He will probably have to be caught in this spot, however. (8) FOREFATHER is capable of producing a big late kick on his best day. He can close for a share here if he stays flat. (4) RILKOFF raced better last week, and he is another that should be closing late in the mile; using underneath.

Race 6: NW $8,000 L5 or $16,500 L8 AE: N/A $1,505 P/S in 2024 - Pick 5

(6) FLEURIE tried a backstretch brush to the front last week, but the heavy favorite wasn’t interested in relinquishing the lead. She did well to hang on for a share after engaging in that 27-flat third 1/4 war and she gets top billing here. (8) KAMERAN HANOVER got a better trip and finished ahead of the choice, but I like that he displayed some gate speed, and he is probably going to win one soon, maybe tonight. (2) ALL WRAPPED UP showed aggressiveness to win last time he was at this level, and he is another that could do in this competitive dash. (7) BELLA CAVALLA came back ready, and she parlayed a perfect trip into a win. She is in tougher now and I see her closing for a small share.

Race 7: NW $9,750 L5 or $15,800 L8 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 AE: N/A $1,610 P/S in 2023/24 - Pick 4

(4) COLD CREEK QUESO paced a sub-1:50 mile after missing a month and he gets to drop in class now. He should be tough in here. (5) DREAMFAIR ARNIE B, who also drops, likely will charge straight to the front here and play come catch me. He can carry he speed a long way when he races this low, and he can be a big threat here. (2) BAYFIELD BEACH won’t get parked the mile this week and that gives him a chance; using. (1) FRANKIE FRANKIE took a fast win at this level two starts back but he got a perfect pocket trip then and I don’t see him out leaving all but one of his rivals in this spot. I’ll use him on the bottom.

Race 8: NW4 (F&M5) or $80,000 LT

(1) PASSARINO, coming off a new lifetime mark, couldn’t be any sharper and he gets the call to repeat. (2) MASS HYSTERIA winner of three of her last four, has done great recently with Sorrie in the bike and she should be an Exacta factor here. (4) STONEBRIDGE BRAVO looked a little flat last week after beating similar two starts back despite missing five weeks then. I can see her bouncing back to take a share here. (3) EDEN ONTHEHILL was first up against the choice last week and he stayed for a share. He should be in the exotics mix here.

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Race 9: NW $14,000 L5 or $28,000 L8 AE: NW $165,000 LT

(4) DISTANCE LEARNING takes a big class drop here and he should be tough to beat in this spot. (3) LOCATELLI made it clear in the third 1/4 last week that he was going down the road and that was that. He should be the main threat to the choice. (6) TOKYO SEELSTER comes off two good efforts in a row at this level, but he will likely find the top two choices too tough. I’ll use him underneath. (1) NASEY can sit a following trip and take a small share here.

Race 10: NW $4,550 L5 AE: NW $34,000 in 2023/24 or N/A $760 P/S in 2024

(2) SOMETIME SOMEWHERE drops and moves inside and he likely wins as the chalk here. (10) CODE CRACKER is another dropper that figures, and he could lead a long way here if he gets sent from post 10; using. (9) ILIKEMEBETTOR A is another that drops but he has missed some time and he is 1 for 15 this year. I’ll use him underneath. (1) LARRY KARR cut some big fractions last week and he hung around for a share. I think he will find some of the droppers troublesome and I’ll play to beat him as the morning line favorite. (5) FOXHUNT can be better in this second start back and land in the bottom of the exotics.