Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 6/24

Top Pick Stats: 316 - 959 / $1779.10 (-$138.90)

Best Bets: 49 - 90 / $162.40 (-$18.60)

Spot Plays: 16 - 87 / $175.20 (+$1.20)

Best Bet: SWEET DIESEL (3RD)

Spot Play: BAD EYE BILL (7TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,4,9/3,4,5/5/1,5,6/1,3 = $10.80

Late Pick 5: 5,7/1,3,5/2,5/5/3,4,5,6,9 = $12

Early Pick 4: 1,5,6/1,3/5,7/1,3,5 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 1,3,5/2,5/5/3,4,5,6,9 = $6

Race 1: NW $1,850 LAST 3 STARTS. AE: N/A $1,470 P/S IN 2024 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(9) MAJOR HILL and (4) NIGHTIME DANCER both chased a sub-1:48 winner last week and they finished close together while each taking a share. I’ll side with the former hoping he offers a better price starting from a wide post. (2) TREACHEROUS TOM should find this field easier than the tough claiming handicap horses he has been facing since getting claimed in early May. He is the third one that I’ll use in the Pick 4. (5) COLIGNY HANOVER comes out of a track-record race at Grand River. I could see him sneaking into the bottom of the exotics here.

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Race 2: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW $15,000 LT

(5) WATCHING SUNSET raced better here last Tuesday in a Grassroots race and his strong late speed should play well in this field; top call. (4) WALLACE HARTLEY wasn’t disgraced in Grand Circuit company, and he should fare much better in this class, the only concern being the sick scratch. I like that (3) IM A CAPTAIN led at the 1/4, took a shuffle then led again at the wire displaying sharp speed both early and late. He is another in with a shot here. (2) BETTING MARKER fits okay here and he gets a better post to work from, but I prefer to use him underneath.

Race 3: CLM HDCP $30,000 to $40,000

(5) SWEET DEISEL looked terrific last week, and he looks primed to start another win streak. Beat him to greet the cashier. (3) DR JOE closed a bit late in a crazy fast mile now he drops in for a tag. He can be an Exacta factor here. (6) HES SWIFT races tough every week and he never gets bet. He can add some value to the exotics here. (7) ORDER ONE TO GO will be asked again to pass them all and I don’t see that happening; using underneath.

Race 4: NW $15,750 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NW 7 (FM 8) RACES OR NW $145,000 LIFETIME. AE: NW $65,000 IN 2023-24 - Pick 4

(5) STONEBRIDGE BRAVO tripped out last week and sailed to victory. It looks like there is a decent chance she can get the same trip again in this field and I’ll call her to repeat. (1) LIKE CHAOS raced well on the engine but the choice had too much trot late. He should be the one to catch again. (6) SPARTAN GENERAL is capable at this level, and he qualified okay. Price look for the multis. (7) ALL WRAPPED UP got a perfect trip last week that likely won’t be repeated here; small share predicted.

Race 5: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: PROSPECT SERIES STARTERS IN 2024

(3) LAMBORGHINI LOU took a 1:53 1/5 mark at this track this year, and I think he is better on the big track. Mackenzie, who owns, trains and drives, will put him into play; top call. (1) BALLYKEEL PAINTER is in solid form, and he has the speed to blast off from the rail and get position early; using. (2) JIMMY WHISPERS has taken three wins in his last five starts and most recently he was first-over in Clinton which was not an ideal trip. He can get a trip here and take a share. (4) WORLD REVIVAL hasn’t missed the Exacta in four starts this year and he has shown he can take air and keep coming. He should be part of the exotics.

Race 6: NW $23,250 L5 AE: NW8 LT AE: NW $27,500 L5 to draw outside - Pick 5

(7) PATRIARCH HANOVER returns to a 7-day rotation here and I’ll give him the nod coming off a decent performance last start after missing three weeks. (5) LOOKS LIKE MONI is winless this year but this is a good spot for him. He would be no surprise here. (4) PERFETTO chased down a loose leader last week but that rival just went too fast too soon and ran out of gas. I’ll use him underneath here. (6) PASSARINO has been untouchable in the winners of four but not more than six class but he gets thrown to the wolves here because he won his way out of that level; small share predicted.

Race 7: CLM HDCP $19,000 to $24,000 - Pick 4

(5) BAD EYE BILL set some wild fractions and stopped when claimed by Lester. An easier trip could earn him a visit to the winner’s circle tonight. (1) MUSIC TO MY GEARS was double entered and he comes in off a lifetime best win on Thursday night now he adds Lasix for this step up from conditioned claimers. If he repeats his mile from four days ago, he can be right there. (3) MR BEAST goes back to Barrington who sent him out to win two starts back and he is another possibility in an interesting betting race. (2) BRING YOUR FIRE has been finishing well and he can take another slice here.

Race 8: 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

(5) BOLD SPIRIT took a lot of action last week for a horse coming off a break in stride and he flew late to convert. Assuming the connections have figured this one out, I’ll give him the call to repeat. (2) MCWICKED TIME closed into two identical 1:50 3/5 miles and I don’t see this race breaking 1:51. He should be a big late threat tonight. (3) PRICE CONTROL could do nothing but follow when the leader tore off a 26 3/5 kicker last week. He is in the exotics mix here. (1) BETTHEBEACH YANKEE did most of the work and got beat only 3/4 of a length by the choice. He is another that should be part of the exotics.

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Race 9: NW $8,600 L5 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 AE: NW $16,000 in 2024

If a reasonable facsimile of the (5) ADARE CASTLE we are used to shows u tonight, her rivals will be racing for 2nd. This is a huge class drop. (2) BELLA CAVALLA showed that she can be handy and prevail last week. She is in peak form, and she can be an Exacta factor tonight. (1) DEALIN WITH DEWEY has been racing better recently and I can see him getting another good trip tonight and landing in the Tri again. (6) KAMERAN HANOVER will likely come on late again for another slice.

Race 10: HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $15,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF LAST 3 STARTS

This is a great betting race to end the card and I think it will set up for the best closers. (5) TYMAL RIGGS, who showed no rust coming off a break to win at Grand River should be able to work out a good trip starting from the middle of the gate, and he gets top billing. (4) ESPLOSIONE ignited in the lane last week and he really motored late to get the job done. He is another that will be passing rivals late; using. (9) BRACE FOR LANDING goes from A Mac to J Mac coming off a win where he looked better than ever’ price look for the multis. (3) GIGONDAS will likely look to discourage the outside leavers heading into the first turn. He could get brave if he gets left alone on the lead. (6) RADIO LAB is in solid form. He should be good for a share leaving from the best post.