Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 5/20

Top Pick Stats: 247 - 760 / $1254.50 (-$265.50)

Best Bets: 41 - 71 / $134.20 (-$7.80)

Spot Plays: 11 - 69 / $65.40 (-$72.20)

Best Bet: FASHION FRENZIE (8^th)

Spot Play: MAINTENANCE MAN (2^nd)

Early Pick 5: 3,5/2,3/1,2/6,7/3,5,7,9 = $12.80

Late Pick 5: 3,7,9/2,6/3/2,4,5,8/3,10 = $9.60

Early Pick 4: 6,7/3,5,7,9/3,7,9/2,6 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 2,6/3/2,4,5,8/3,10 = $3.20

Race 1: NW $14,000 L5 or $27,100 L10 AE: OPT CLM $70,000 AE: MARES **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(3) WARRAWEE XENIA was just getting into gear when the wire hit in her winning qualifier on May 10th. Her class and speed will be too much for these if she gets into the race early enough. (5) DERF HANOVER won last week off a covered up trip, but he did take a new life’s mark and he is razor sharp and dangerous here. (9) TRUFFLES TOO went too fast to the half last week and he paid the price late in the mile. His speed always puts him in contention, and he will likely offer a good price here; upset chance. (4) ALL WRAPPED UP moves inside and he can get positioned better early and close for a share.

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Race 2: CLM HDCP $19,000 to $24,000

(5) MAINTENANCE MAN has been better the past three starts and he races off the Barrington claim tonight. Immediate improvement is likely, and he gets top billing here. (3) CAPTAIN FIREBALL won well racing off the Moreau claim last week, circling past the choice late, and he will probably be the one to fend off late here, too; using. (4) LETS GET ROCKED was game in defeat last week and he will likely be the one to catch here again. I prefer to use him underneath here, though. (7) CAPT JACK HANOVER will likely show speed again racing off the Marfisi claim. He should be in the exotics.

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Race 3: Winners of 4 but not more than 7 or $80,000 LT

(1) GHOSTLY CASPER raced well in every leg of the Graduate series, and he doesn’t have to face Osceola here. His late kick should be hard to fend off and he gets the nod (2) BRACE FOR LANDING was racing in opens in Kentucky and appears to fit well here. He should be part of the exotics. (4) EDEN ONTHEHILL has been right there several weeks in a row, and he picks up McNair tonight. He will likely sit a trip racing close to the front and land in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 4: CLM HDCP $14,000 to $18,000 - Pick 4

We get a race with six barn changes here. The most significant of those is probably (6) HAPUNA BEACH who won a ton of races earlier this year for Waxman. He returns to that trainer and adds Lasix; top call. (7) J J TOMMY goes for Moreau off the claim, gets J Mac in the bike and he should get a solid pace to chase. He is the other one that I’ll use on Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets. (5) HIGHLAND BEACH BOY goes for Tackoor off the claim adds Lasix, and he should get a piece of this racing near the front throughout. (3) MAKE IT COME TRUE, stablemate to the choice, is another that should sit a following trip and work his way into the exotics.

Race 5: Horses that have started for a purse of $9,000 or less in 1 of L3 AE: NW $1,550 L3

(3) MACHO PHIL stretched his legs in an amateur drivers race last week now he picks up Drury and he will be tighter. I’ll take a price swing based on his May 3rd qualifier where he finished 2nd to Silver Label. (9) CAPTAIN BUTLER faced much tougher in his last start. He should be the one to fend off if he can get in contention by the head of the lane. His lack of gate speed is concerning. (5) JJ XAVIER is a good fit here and I think he gets sent forward leaving the gate by Roy; using. (7) CHIEF OF STAFF is another exiting the amateur drivers race that should be in the mix here. He has upset potential.

Race 6: Horses that have started for a purse of $15,000 or less in 1 of L3 - Pick 5

(3) BUCKTOBER has a win and a 3rd at this level in recent starts and he comes off a good try in London’s top class. I’ll give him a slight nod in a race with a few options. (7) CLASSIC MAGIC got an aggressive steer to beat a decent field last week and he has a decent chance to repeat here; using. (9) MISTER MAGIC was parked every step last week and he kept coming to take a win right on the wire. He is hard to discount when he is on his game. (4) VILLEFRANCHE AS has been racing better recently and she can take another share here likely racing close to the front.

Race 7: CLM HDCP $10,000 to $12,000 - Pick 4

(6) MR BEAST withstood a tough trip to hang on for the win when claimed and he goes for Barrington tonight. He should be the one to catch here. (2) MILITARY SECRET, racing off the Waxman claim, will likely blast and sit the pocket. He will probably be the one the choice will need to fend off late. (8) SUNSHINE LOVE was flying late, and he fell one step short of catching the choice. Starting from the widest post, he will likely close late to take a share. (7) ROYAL REGATTA was locked and blocked until it was too late last week. He is another in with a shot here.

Race 8: PREFERRED

(3) FASHION FRENZIE would have been closer last week had he not got briefly stuck behind a stopping Amigo Volo in early stretch. With no Gaines Hanover or Logan Park in here, he should boss this field. (1) PEMBERTON was kept covered up and he came on late for a share last week. A similar approach here can get him into the Exacta. (7) PERFETTO has been racing tough every week and he will likely get sent forward leaving the gate here. He will likely stick around for a share. (6) LOOKS LIKE MONI has taken shares in every start since he returned to action. He is another that is in the exotics mix here.

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Race 9: CLM HDCP $30,000 to $40,000

(2) TREACHEROUS TOM took his lifetime mark racing for Waxman two starts back and he goes back to him here after winning off the claim in Ottawa. He is the one to beat here. (8) SWEET DEISEL had his win streak broken last week when he was taken back at the start. He gets McNair now and he will almost surely be driven more aggressively; using. (5) ORDER ONE TO GO took advantage of a late pace meltdown to surge past for a win at a huge price last week. He will probably pass a few of these late but I don’t see him getting the same setup here. (4) I AMA ROCKET was bet like he was supposed to win last week but he came up flat. I could see him racing better tonight and landing in the Super.

Race 10: NW $8,000 L5 AE: Mares NW $100 in 2024 (Min. 2 starts)

(3) HP MAMA B was going to be right there last week, but she ran in and hooked wheels with a rival in the stretch which knocked her and that rival out of the race. She fits well here, and she can win with an aggressive steer. (10) LOCATELLI was a good 2nd to the favorite on the class drop to this level last week and he should be right there tonight if he can work out a reasonable trip starting from the widest post. (2) PHOENIX typically finishes in the money when he races this low. He should be part of the Tri tonight. (8) FLEURIE was affected by the interference caused by the choice last week. She is a good one to use underneath at what will likely be a big price. (9) KEVIN ANTHONY rarely misses the top five and he should be in this High-5.