Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 5/13

Top Pick Stats: 231 - 716 / $1150.00 (-$282.00)

Best Bets: 38 - 67 / $123.20 (-$10.80)

Spot Plays: 10 - 65 / $48.80 (-$81.20)

Best Bet: YO MISTER (5TH)

Spot Play: MR BEAST (8TH)

Early Pick 5: 4,6,8/1,6/3/3,6,5,6,8,9/8 = $7.20

Late Pick 5: 3,4,5,7/3,8/5,9/1/2,6,7 = $9.60

Early Pick 4: 3,4,5,6,8,9/8/3,4,5,7/3,8 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 3,8/5,9/1/2,6,7 = $2.40

Race 1: Horses that have started for a purse of $15K or less in 1 of L3 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(8) EL TORO LOCO won in fast time vs. similar here two starts back and he is a big threat to lead all the way on the class drop tonight. (6) ANDY OVER is in top form and he fits well here. He should contend leaving from the best post; using. (4) KEVIN ANTHONY raced well last week considering how far back he was early in the mile. He is the third one that I’ll use in the early Pick 5. (9) SERENITY CRUISE’s season opener was good, but I prefer to use her on the bottom starting from a wide post tonight.

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Race 2: CLM HDCP $19,000 to $24,000

(1) CAPTAIN FIREBALL moves to the top barn on the circuit and gets the leading driver racing off the claim tonight and he will likely be hard to fend off in this spot. (6) MAINTENANCE MAN found room too late last week and he projects to get another good trip racing close to the lead. I could see him tripping out for a win here. (7) LETS GET ROCKED took a new life’s mark when claimed and he should be part of the pace again and stick around for a share. (4) SIR A is another that just took a new lifetime best mark, but he got a good trip then and he faces tougher. I’ll use him underneath here.

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Race 3: NW $14,000 L5 or $28,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $70,000 AE: Mares NW $4,500 in 2024

(3) HP MAMA B made an uncharacteristic break last week racing in the top class. This is a big drop for her, and this is a field that she should dominate. (4) MRMAYOR HANOVER is razor sharp and he should work out another good trip racing near the front; Exacta factor. (6) DERF HANOVER took a shuffle then re-rallied last week and he can take a slice here. (1) TRUFFLES TOO is around the money every week and he should be part of the exotics here.

Race 4: NW $1,850 L3 AE: NW $7,000 L10 or N/A $870 P/S in 2024 (Min. 8 starts) - Pick 4

We get a wide-open Amateur Drivers race to kick off the early Pick 4 here. I’ll side with (6) CHIEF OF STAFF who gets the winningest driver in the race and will be closing late. (9) MAMBA was close at a similar level two starts back and he will get put into this race early; using. (8) BEYOND BETTER is another dropper that figures, and his driver is a perfect 1 for 1 this year. If he is close at the head of the lane, his class will likely prevail. (3) THATLL BE TIGER raced better on the class drop and he is another in with a shot here.

Race 5: NW $8,000 L5 or NW7 LT

(8) YO MISTER drops, and I like that he showed speed vs. much better last week. I think J Mac sends him right down the road here. (1) LOCATELLI is the other dropper that figures, but he typically doesn’t show a lot of gate speed and the rail likely isn’t best for him. I think he rallies too late here. (2) KAMERAN HANOVER is coming around, but he is another that will likely be rallying late for a share. (5) EDEN ONTHEHILL tripped out for a win, but his form is good, and he should be part of the Tri or Super tonight.

Race 6: CLM HDCP $30,000 to $40,000 - Pick 5

(7) ROCK AND TWIST gets Lasix and Louis Roy in this third start since the Auciello claim, and I’ll take a price shot with him expecting him to be sent forward leaving the gate. (5) MARSHALL ZHUKOV hinted that he was coming to his best form two starts back and he rallied nicely to win at this level last week. He is an obvious threat to repeat. (3) RJS SUPERFREAK steps up here but if he paces another sub-1:51 mile, he should be right there vs. these. (4) BIG BULLY will likely sit another trip racing near the front and take a slice.

Race 7: Horses that have started for a purse of $15K or less in 1 of L3 - Pick 4

(8) DREAMFAIR ARNIE B was no secret in his second start back, and he demolished a decent field. If he repeats that effort, he will be tough to beat here. (3) P L OZZY ships in from Ottawa in sharp form, moves into Moreau’s barn and gets the leading driver. He has a decent chance in this spot. (6) LIVINTHEBEACHLIFE drops and he figures to get a trip racing close to the front. He should be part of the Tri. (10) TORONTO will be closing from the back, and he can pass enough of these to sneak into the bottom of the Super.

Race 8: CLM HDCP $10,000 to $12,000

(5) MR BEAST races off the claim for a 40% trainer that has been moving them up in their first start for him and he gets McNair and a great post; top call. (9) ROYAL REGATTA drops back to the level where he rarely loses, and he will likely be the one to catch here. (7) ARTISTIC PICK raced well off the Demers claim and moving outside might be good for him because he has a chance to blast and end up in Royal Regatta’s pocket. He should be in the exotics mix. (4) DIRTY LIL PIGLET races well for Filion. He is a good one to use on the bottom here.

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Race 9: PREFERRED

(1) LOGAN PARK was gifted a 58 2/5 opening 1/2 last week and it was race over right there. He faces arch rival (6) FASHION FRENZIE here and he gets the edge based on having that winning start back while the latter makes his 2024 debut. (3) AMIGO VOLO tried moving first up into a 52 2/5 back 1/2 and that was mission impossible. He will likely get more aggressive at the start this time to get better position. He should take a share. (4) PEMBERTON can pass some of these late and make it into the Super.

Race 10: NW $8,950 L5 AE: OPT CLM $50,000

(2) THE GREEK FREAK is only 1 for 15 this year but this is a good spot for him dropping and moving inside; top call. (6) SWEET DEISEL just keeps winning and he draws best here. He’s hard to leave off late multi-race tickets. (7) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER is another dropper that is worth a look here at a price and I could see Drury trying to leave with him this week. (1) BETS SHOW OFF will likely sit an inside trip racing in mid pack and land in the bottom of the exotics. (5) BAYFIELD BEACH is another that figures to finish on the edges again.