Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 5/11

Top Pick Stats: 233/747 (-$312.10)

Best Bets: 28/68 (-$24.20); Spot Plays: 17/70 (-$43.20)

Best Bet: ELBOWS UP (Race 9)

Spot Play: SMILES FOR MILES (Race 10)

Early Pick-5: 4,10/3,9/3,7/7,10/4,7 $6.40

Late Pick-5: 2,3,9/4,9/8,10/8/2 $2.40

Race 1: WINNERS OF 3 (FM 4) BUT NOT MORE THAN 5 (FM 6) OR $80,000 (OS $100,000) LIFETIME.

(4) MR WALNER FASHION gets my nod in a top-heavy field. Last week’s win cemented his form, and it helps that he draws better than his main rivals. (10) UNGAWA is getting better with each start, and last week’s win was the most visually impressive mile I’ve seen from him. He is the obvious threat. (1) EUROBANK HANOVER was last seen beating Ungawa, but that was three weeks ago. He could be a step short against the top two.

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Race 2: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $9,900 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(3) AMERICAN ROAD TRIP was a good third last week after making multiple moves from the high draw. The post switch puts him over the top in my opinion. (9) JUST GIVENER is clearly improving with each start but will need to work out a trip from the outside. (4) GLENN E MAC didn’t have the most punch after taking a shuffle, but it’s hard to expect horses to be push-button with their speed. I think a better trip could see him in the mix.

Race 3: FILLIES & MARES, 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $9,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(7) UPGRADE gets back in against maiden company after some good races in the Spring Series. I would expect her to be forwardly placed. (3) KENOGAMI FANCY flashed upside in her debut for top connections. I would expect her to step forward whether J-Mac chooses her or not. (10) WHT BLONDE HANOVER took tons of support in her latest but made two breaks and spoiled her chances. Now she likely has to work from further back, and the chance of a break still looms.

Race 4: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 4) RACES OR $50,000 (OS $62,500) LIFETIME.

(10) ILL HAVE THE RED comes off a sharp front-end score, and took tons of support that night. It will be a tougher task from the high draw, but a repeat of that effort gives her a big chance. (7) CAPTAIN CODE made his presence felt in multiple Mohawk stakes at two. After being double qualified, he looks ready to roll. (3) MAXIMUM EXPOSURE was keeping good company at The Meadowlands, but made an early miscue in his Mohawk debut and spoiled any chance. Look for him to get a piece with a better post.

Race 5: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $60,000 (OS $92,000) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. AE: NW $4,000 LAST 4 STARTS.

(4) JIMS FIRST DATE has been sharp in his two efforts at this level, and should have every chance to repeat. (7) ONEFORMYBABY was a good second when tracking the winner for most of the mile. If she steps forward tonight, she should be right there. (3) JACK WICK drops back to conditioned company where he found much success in March. He might be a step short given the four weeks off.

Race 6: FILLIES & MARES NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME. AE: N/A $620 P/S IN 2026.

(3) TH TRIX R FORKIDS was in great form at the end of her two-year-old season. I like that she is double qualified, and I think she can win right away. (2) KOUNTRY CLOVER stepped forward in her second start back. J-Mac sticks and will look to give her another forwardly placed trip. (9) CALYX has the best kick of anyone in this field, but will need to work out the right trip from an outside draw.

Race 7: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 3) RACES OR $20,000 (OS $25,000) LIFETIME.

(4) EXACTLY had to re-qualify after making a break around the first turn. I’ll give him another chance this week. (9) HALTON HILL returned with a strong qualifier and will likely be forwardly placed given the outside draw. (2) FELIX HANOVER has the kick to get himself into contention, but will need a slightly quicker start from the inside.

Race 8: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $9,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(10) NOTATTHETABLCARLOS was a rallying third in his first start of the year. Despite the wide draw, I’ll look for him to step forward and get the job done. (8) CAPTAIN WILLIE should be forwardly placed again, but hasn’t finished the job in either of his starts this year. (3) GREEN GRASS GROWS was mired at the back in his latest and never got involved. I’ll look for him to get away slightly closer tonight.

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Race 9: FILLIES & MARES NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME. AE: N/A $620 P/S IN 2026.

(8) ELBOWS UP just missed in the Spring Series Final. She is in good form right now; I’ll give her the nod. (3) BELLA CHICA was trip compromised in that final but was still making up ground. A better trip could see her pull off the upset. (7) RONDA MAY K showed plenty of upside in limited starts at two, and her qualifier shows that she is ready to go right away. I’ll take a shot against her tonight.

Race 10: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $60,000 (OS $92,000) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. AE: NW $4,000 LAST 4 STARTS.

(2) SMILES FOR MILES got a good trip last week and capitalized. He also took a lot of support in that outing. (8) VOLCANIC is a usual presence at this level, and is likely to be forwardly placed. Last week’s double move at London couldn’t be sustained. (7) BUDDYVILLE has a line to be announced on Sunday, making me wonder if he will race in here. If he does, his versatility should give him plenty of chances to get on the ticket.