Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 4/29

Top Pick Stats: 201 - 630 / $984.60 (-$275.40)

Best Bets: 33 - 59 / $100.40 (-$17.60)

Spot Plays: 8 - 58 / $35.10 (-$81.90)

Best Bet: ROYAL REGATTA (1ST)

Spot Play: THATLL BE TIGER (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 9/1,2,9/2,6,7/2,6/2,4,5,6 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 2,6/6/1,7/1,5,8/3,6 = $4.80

Early Pick 4: 2,6/2,4,5,6/2,6/6 = $3.20

Late Pick 4: 6/1,7/1,5,8/3,6 = $3.60

Race 1: CLM HDCP $10,000 to $12,000 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(9) ROYAL REGATTA was taken on early as expected last week and Macdonald calmly sat the pocket watching the action until midstretch then pulled and passed the two that battled in the third 1/4. This looks like an easier field, and he will likely extend his win streak to nine. (8) BRING YOUR FIRE was a winner at this level here two starts back then broke while on the move at Rideau Carlton. He seems like the most likely upsetter in this field. (5) MACH ART IN MOTION is capable of taking a share if he can work out a better trip tonight; using underneath. (2) MR BEAST is another capable of making it into the exotics if he gets a better start. I can see him rounding out the Super.

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Race 2: CLM HDCP $19,000 to $24,000

(9) HAPUNA BEACH drops to where he fits better, and he adds Lasix. A big speed try is likely in this spot and he gets top billing. (2) LETS GET PICKLED did okay last week considering he was chasing a leader that paced a 55 3/5 back 1/2 and was never getting caught. He is in with a decent chance here. (1) MACH IMPACT saved ground and finished ahead of Lets Get Pickled. He has shown that he has a nose for the wire, and he is another that could do with the right trip tonight. (8) BETTORHOLDONTIGHT is always passing horses, but he is in tougher tonight and I’ll use him on the bottom.

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Race 3: NW $8,000 L5 or $18,150 L8 AE: NW 7 LT or N/A $1,730 P/S in 2024

(6) BUCKHEAD RIDGE made what looked like a speed break just as he was shown clear racetrack and accelerated in his last start. He draws best now, and he looks good vs. these; top call. (2) MRMAYOR HANOVER was an easy winner last time he raced this low, and he will likely be the one to catch here as he looks to drop and pop. (7) EDEN ONTHEHILL made a good late charge last week and Macdonald sticks here. That was his best race so far this year and he is worth a look for the early Pick 5. (1) DELCREST BRENT can pass a few of these late and take another small share.

Race 4: NW $1,720 L3 - Pick 4

(6) THATLL BE TIGER drops and he draws best and it’s unlikely he will close anywhere close to the 6 to 1 morning line quote. (2) THRILLING TIMES raced better on the class drop last week and he is a threat to lead all the way tonight; using. (10) BROOKDALE MIKI was only two lengths back in a fast race last time. He would be rated higher if he drew better. (5) IM SPONGE WORTHY is capable of closing for a slice here if he fires his typical 27 1/5 kicker.

Race 5: NW $14,000 L5 or $27,500 L8 AE: NW $145,000 LT

(2) TOKYO SEELSTER moves up off a perfect trip win but Macdonald sticks with him over three others that he was listed on. I’ll give him a slight nod in a tough race. (5) DISTANCE LEARNING drops and draws much better and Sorrie will put him into the race leaving the gate tonight; using. (4) EL TORO LOCO was correctly hammered at the windows last week shipping in from London. He is a real threat to repeat. (6) TRUFFLES TOO raced well in defeat last week and he should be in the exotics mix starting from the best post.

Race 6: Horses that have started for a purse of $15,000 or less in 1 of L3 - Pick 5

(2) KEVIN ANTHONY is in peak form and Henry is a good partner for him; call to repeat. (6) DEALIN WITH DEWEY raced okay in a fast race last week and his speed should play well here. He is hard to leave out starting from the best post. (4) WARRAWEE XALT gets a barn change here and he has beaten better than these in the past. He is worth a look at a price here. (7) SHES BEER LEAGUE was a distant 2nd to the choice last week. She figures to take another share here.

Race 7: CLM HDCP $30,000 to $40,000 - Pick 4

(6) CAPT JACK HANOVER couldn’t be any sharper and he should be tough to beat with the post draw that he got tonight. (8) ORDER ONE TO GO was better last week and his late charge should get him another good share here. (4) BIG BULLY has a decent chance to land in the choice’s pocket here. He is likely to be part of the Tri. (3) MARSHALL ZHUKOV was better in his second start for Maguire, and he is another who should pass some horses late; using underneath.

Race 8: NW $8,000 L5 or $18,150 L8 or NW 7 LT AE: N/A $1,730 P/S in 2024

This is a big drop for (1) PIKACHU HANOVER and he should be tough to beat in here. I see McNair making an early move to take control of the race. (7) ALL WRAPPED UP stacks up well here but he is 1 for 14 this year and typically trip dependent. I’d demand a price with him. (4) TYMAL RIGGS is another dropper that figures to improve in this spot. Young will probably put him in play early and I see him sticking around for a share. (8) QUEBEC HANOVER has a better chance to make front leaving the gate tonight, but I see him only lasting for a small share.

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Race 9: PREFERRED 2

(8) LOOKS LIKE MONI popped out of the pocket at the 3/4 pole to challenge Amigo Volo last week and he was quickly rebuffed. There are no Amigo Volos in here and this gelding will offer a better price tonight; top call. (1) SOUTHWIND COORS edged the choice for 2nd, and he is the obvious threat here; using. (5) PATRIARCH HANOVER dropped and popped and took a new season’s mark in the process. He is sharp and he’s not out of this. (3) H P MAMA B’s comeback race was decent, and she should be part of the exotics vs. these.

Race 10: NW $4,450 L5 A/E N/A $1,315 P/S in 2023/24

(6) BEYOND BETTER was an easy winner last time he raced this low, and he is the one to beat starting from the best post here. (3) BACKSTREET GAMBLER woke up on the class drop last week and this field doesn’t look much tougher. He is a must-use for me. (5) ROCKME ROLLME race better on the class drop as expected and Borth sticks with him over others in here. He will likely show speed and hang around for a share again. (8) DREAMFAIR ARNIE B’s best puts him right there with these, but he might need one and from a wide post I’ll use him underneath. (7) FOXHUNT has improving form and he should be part of the High-5.