Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 4/27

Top Pick Stats: 196/651 (-$301.90)

Best Bets: 26/59 (-$16.80); Spot Plays: 15/61 (-$35.80)

Best Bet: EXACTLY (Race 3)

Spot Play: NATIONAL TIER (Race 2)

Early Pick-5: 1,8/8/6/4,7,10/4,8 $2.40

Late Pick-5: 1,6,10/1,6/7/1,4/1,5 $4.80

Race 1: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $9,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(1) BITOFTHEBUBBLY was a closing third in his first start of the year, showing clear improvement from two to three. Assuming he can navigate the rail, he should be a tough customer tonight. (8) CAPTAIN WILLIE was a touch flat in the final sixteenth, but it was a fine effort that he can build on tonight. (10) I DRINK SHE DRIVES showed some potential last season in some lower-level stakes. He may need a start or two before we see what he is, but he provides value if he lands on the ticket.

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Race 2: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. AE: 4 YR OLDS N/A $1,190 P/S IN 2026.

(8) NATIONAL TIER has had a tough time getting on a regular rotation as of late, and his quirks made themselves known again last week, but this is a drop that many were looking for back in February. If he is put in play and minds his manners, I think he will be tough to catch. (1) TROOPER HANOVER deserves some respect after his two-move second from post nine. He gets a big post switch tonight and doesn’t have to face off against Lochinvar Aussie. (5) TH ALLOWMETOLEAD continues to grind out solid finishes at this level and draws well again. I’ll use him underneath.

Race 3: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 3) RACES OR $26,500 LIFETIME.

(6) EXACTLY makes his Mohawk debut with a new barn after a stakes-filled freshman season where he raced okay. His qualifier was sharp, and he draws well. Hard to ignore all of the factors going in his favor. (3) LANCELOT stayed flat in his seasonal debut and finished a good second to a stakes horse. It has been a promising last two lines for this horse. (8) WOLVERINE LEGEND takes a step up after a dominant maiden-breaking score off the bench. If he steps forward, he should be a contender.

Race 4: FILLIES & MARES NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $40,750) LIFETIME. AE: N/A $1,775 P/S IN 2025-26.

(10) A SPLASH OF GREEN made her mark in her career debut when she wired a field in a division of the Tompkins-Geers. I only bring that up because this is her first start back, and her getting a forward trip from the high draw is certainly not impossible. I’ll take a swing with her. (7) LO AND BEHOLD was well meant in most of her stakes last season. The conservative qualifier might mean she needs one, but even if she is off the pace, she should be passing horses late. (4) SHERLYN HANOVER might get slightly ignored because of the back lines of others, but she is improving with each start and comes off a near-miss second.

Race 5: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $66,000 LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(8) LOCHINVAR AUSSIE made it two-for-two at Mohawk with last week’s win. Despite the worse post, he is logically the horse to beat. (4) CATITUDE has been much better in his last two efforts and appears to be brimming with confidence. If the leader falters, he should be right there. (9) CHEF was part of a quick early pace and logically tired off the board. I’ll look for him to rebound and get a piece from the same post.

Race 6: FILLIES & MARES, 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $9,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(1) KENOGAMI BELLINI was a sharp winner in her second morning prep and looms large for top connections. She navigated the rail just fine in that effort, which is where she leaves from tonight. (10) M E LAUREL has produced two decent efforts in the morning. I expect her to step forward tonight, but the question is how much, and how aggressive will she be handled? (6) KENNEDY HANOVER drops from the Spring Series and draws well. A repeat of that mile should put her in contention.

Race 7: FILLIES & MARES CLAIMING $8,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(6) ACEFORTYFOUR DAISY got away closer to the leaders last week, which turned out to be the winning move. She got a similar pace setup and capitalized, pulling off an upset in a card that was otherwise full of chalks. I’ll go right back to her. (1) CATCHMEGRACEFULLY shipped to Flamboro last week and took care of business. She draws inside tonight and should get away from the car just fine. (7) MY ONLY SUNSHINE was better in her latest when getting a big post switch. She has become a versatile mare at this level.

Race 8: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 4) RACES OR $50,000 (OS $62,500) LIFETIME.

(7) FIRST CLASS MASS never really had an anxious moment last week. Once the breaking horse got out of the way, J-Mac was free to roll with this son of Muscle mass. I think he repeats when stepping up. (1) UNGAWA is improving with each trip around the track and gets a big post switch tonight. He should be a main factor. (4) GREENARROW HANOVER rallied to get a check in his return. Look for him to get away much closer to the action this week.

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Race 9: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $8,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(4) EARLY PLAY gets a post switch after closing from well off the pace to finish second. He has the kick to get the job done, but needs the right setup. (1) BLAST OF SUNSHINE gets Roy to stick after rallying for a check in his 2026 debut. He was showing good gate speed towards the end of last year; That might return tonight. (5) SEAFARER tends to grind his way into contention, but it’s hard for me to trust horses at this level to sustain their moves, unless it’s a known closer type.

Race 10: FILLIES & MARES NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $40,750) LIFETIME. AE: N/A $1,775 P/S IN 2025-26.

(5) MY GHOST held off a sharp Sherlyn Hanover last week to make it 2-for-2 this season. Another good draw should put him in contention again. (1) KOUNTRY CLOVER has a solid rapport with J-Mac who gets the call tonight. If she can get away a little better from the rail, look for her to rally for a big piece. (3) CALYX was a filly that burned some money last season, but she was a consistent type that can take some air on the outside. I’ll count on her hitting the board.