Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 3/11

Top Pick Stats: 116 - 374 / $566.00 (-$182.00)

Best Bets: 21 - 36 / $69.90 (-$2.10)

Spot Plays: 4 - 34 / $14.30 (-$53.70)

Best Bet: PEMBERTON (5TH)

Spot Play: PHEONIX (1ST)

Early Pick 5: 5,7,10/3,6,7,8/5,6,9/1,4/2 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 2,4,7/5/5,8/3,4,7/1,7,8,10 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 1,4/2/2,4,7/5 = $1.20

Late Pick 4: 5/5,8/3,4,7/1,7,8,10 = $4.80

Race 1: NW $8,200 L5 or $16,300 L10 AE: NW $75,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(10) PHEONIX was completely blocked for the entire stretch drive last week now Macdonald takes the lines from Renaud. He gets the nod to kick off the Pick 5 at a price. (7) IMA STANDUP GUY was no match for a big favorite that swooped the field in the lane but that was a better effort and Henry sticks with him over others; using. (5) KEVIN ANTHONY was asked to make a sustained uncovered move that wasn’t going to work last week. He gets a driver switch to Cullen, and he is another Pick 5 possibility. (2) GRATEFUL will likely show speed and stick around for another share.

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Race 2: Horses that have started for a purse of $9K or less in 1 of L3

(8) E L GLADIATOR’s qualifier signifies readiness for this 2024 debut, and he lands in a good spot. He could go right down the road vs. these. (7) CORTEZ THE KILLER qualified okay at London last Wednesday and he shows up here and attracts McNair which gets my attention; price look. (6) JJ XAVIER is another that faces easier that is worth a look here in a tough race. (3) BOLT POWER’s two most recent starts showed improvement and he is yet another that is worth using in the early Pick 5 in this spot.

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Race 3: NW $14,000 L5 or NW6 LT AE: OPT CLM $70,000 or NW $100,000 LT or NW $20,500 L5 to draw outside

(5) DISTANCE LEARNING was a strong first up winner one class lower, and he took a new life’s mark last week. I’ll call him to repeat facing slightly tougher. (6) NASEY is worth a look at a price going to the leading trainer and driver racing off the claim here. (9) WALKONTHEMOON dropped and popped, and he produced a huge stretch rally to roll past the leaders. He is sharp and a possible upsetter here. (2) SOUTHWIND COORS had a nice sophomore season racing against some of the best three-year-olds. I’ll give him one and watch him for next week.

Race 4: Pop-Up series Claiming $8,000 2nd Leg - Pick 4

(4) FEAR THE DICE was never getting to a leader that stole a 1:01-flat middle 1/2 last week. Racing off the Bourassa claim and gets Macdonald in the bike. I expect him to be more aggressive here. (1) ST LADS FLIRT was good last week but the winner was just too tough. He is in with a decent chance here; using. (6) SAVOIR DUHARAS won and was claimed but he got everything his own way that night and I don’t see that trip repeating here. He is one that I have to try to beat. (8) MACHO POLO is in solid form, and he is a good one to use underneath at a price.

Race 5: NEW HOLLAND TROTTING SERIES: NW $150,000 (F&M $175,000) IN 2023 Leg 1

(2) PEMBERTON prepped for this series with a workmanlike Preferred 2 win with Renaud in the bike now he gets Macdonald. He is strictly the one to beat in this dash and the entire series. (5) PIKACHU HANOVER is in top form and most recently he was 2nd behind the best trotter on the grounds. He has a good chance to complete the Exacta. (4) LOCATELLI can take another trip and land in the bottom of the exotics. (7) SOUTHWIND ONCORE has been sharp for weeks and he should be passing horses late to land in the bottom of the Tri or Super.

Race 6: NW $2,175 L3 - Pick 5

(4) IKES DREAM drops again, and he is a big threat make front early and lead all the way. The other one that interests me for multi-race tickets is another dropper, (2) TORONTO, who should get a more aggressive steer from Hensley tonight. (7) BAYFIELD BEACH is another dropper that should go better here that could wake up and win at this level. (5) PARTYINTHESHADOWS will likely take some play based on his sub-1:52 mile last week, but that was a strange race where a runaway opened a big lead and cut some wild fractions. I’ll use him on the bottom.

Race 7: Pop-Up series Claiming $8,000 2nd Leg - Pick 4

(5) ROYAL REGATTA was plucked out of the opening leg of the series where he crushed, and he is the clear horse to beat here as a likely big favorite. (2) RYE N CLYNE closed okay as the pace accelerated last week and he can be an Exacta factor tonight. (1) BEACH FIRE K drops here, and he will likely last longer racing near the front. He can take a share. (4) DIRTY LIL PIGLET, 3rd to the choice last week, should be in the mix for another small share here.

Race 8: CLM HDCP $10,000 to $12,000

(8) ISITFRIDAYYET reached peak form last week, producing a strong first-over effort to win and he gets the call to repeat facing similar. (5) TOO MUCH DUNCAN re-rallied in a decent effort, and he could do here if he gets a decent trip racing near the front. (2) UF BETTORS HANOVER is in solid form, but he seems more likely to take a slice than a win and I’ll use him underneath. (1) NO TIME AT ALL produced an incredible winning effort parked the mile racing off the claim and he was also taken from that race. I don’t see a repeat coming here.

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Race 9: NW $20,500 in 2023/24 or N/A $1,000 per start in 2023/24 (Min. 10 starts)

(4) SERIOUS MOJO is in easier here in the 3rd start since being claimed by Moreau. Macdonald sticks with him, and he should wake up in this spot; top call. (3) THATLL BE TIGER was close last time he raced at this level, and he is another that should go better in this spot; using. (7) TREACHEROUS TOM closed a gap as the runaway leader started to stop in deep stretch. He is in with a shot, but that 1:50 3/5 time might be fool’s gold. I’d demand a price. (6) CONTROL THE POWER gets McNair back and he is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics.

Race 10: CLM HDCP $19,000 to $24,000

(1) SNAP TEST jogged with J Mac in the bike two starts back and he returns here in a spot where his late kick should play; call to upset. (10) HAPUNA BEACH was virtually unbeatable for Waxman, but he races off the claim now and draws widest. I wouldn’t take a short price tonight. (7) SWEET DEISEL was good last week and that was after missing three weeks. He is another in with a shot. (8) NORTHERN SPY was never closing from 8th into a 27 3/5 kicker last week. He could upset here with the right trip. (2) HES GOT SWAGGER’s preferred racing style clashes with the #10 horse and I could see those two canceling each other out tonight.