Woodbine Harness

Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 2/28

Garnet Barnsdale|Feb 25, 2022

Meet Stats: 81 - 277 / $446.50 (-$107.50)

Best Bets: 9 - 25 / $29.90 (-$18.10)

Spot Plays: 7 - 25 / $52.30 (+$2.30)

Best Bet: ITS IN THE STARS (2ND)

Spot Play: MORTGAGE MY VILLA (9TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,6,10/2/1,2,3,4,7/4,6,9/2,3 = $18

Late Pick 5: 3,5/2,4,9/2,6,7/4,5,6/5,9 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 4,6,9/2,3/3,5/2,4,9 = $36

Late Pick 4: 2,4,9/2,6,7/4,5,6/5,9 = $54

Race 1: NW $6,700 L5 or $15,500 L10 **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

Class droppers should dominate the opening leg of the early Pick 5. I can see (6) DERF HANOVER blasting to the front, letting one go, then tripping out to win like he did on 1/3 vs. NW $13,500 L5 rivals. (1) FREE WILLY HANOVER is likely the one that will be leading into the lane and he is hard to leave out on the multi-level class drop while getting post relief. (10) ZIG ZAG is the third class-dropper but he draws worst. I'll use him underneath from out there. (3) GOLD EDITION was a close second at this level last week but he looks like a fringe player racing against the droppers tonight.

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Race 2: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $20,000 LT

(2) ITS IN THE STARS will likely be odds-on here with the driver change to Macdonald but he is also probably going to improve by several lengths. I'll eat the short price. (3) SPORT SECRET followed live cover and finished ahead of the choice last week and he should be the main threat here. (6) PRIMETIME SEELSTER should be closer early and that gives him a chance at a better share tonight. (5) ONTOP RAINMAN can land a spot in the Super stepping up off his maiden win.

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Race 3: Popup Event Starters who are NW $67,000 in 2021-2022

(7) CHEDDAR BAY has been racing well in the top class in London for several weeks and he fits nicely in this Popup series. His potent early speed should play well and Harris will send him; top call. (1) CHAMPAGNE PHIL had his win streak broken last week when his trip was just too tough. I see him sitting and rallying here and he could get back on track; using. (2) AREUKIDINME CABBIE has a much better shot starting from an inside post tonight. He could work out the winning trip; price look. (3) BELIEVE IN BRIAN should sit another good trip near the front and stay for a share.

Race 4: NW $9,000 L5 or $24,000 L9 AE: OPT CLM $30,000 - Pick 4

(9) NEVER MIND N gets to drop again after breaking stride while making a move to the front last week. Sorrie should have him rolling early vs. these. (4) MISTER OF ALL is the other dropper that figures and his good late speed should play well vs. these; using. (6) O NARUTAC PERFETTO was no match for a sharp repeat winner last week but he is sharp and dangerous. Here is another live multi-race option. (3) LIFE IS A FEAST is typically close at this level and he should rally for a share in this spot.

Race 5: Popup Final Claiming $15,000 for NW $50,000 Life

(2) MAYHEM LIKE ME raced great last week off the Puddy claim, re-rallying into the teeth of a 27 4/5 kicker to win comfortably and he gets the nod. (3) HERESTHATMANAGAIN was also sharp in victory when claimed by Bossence for this $25K final and he should be a late threat here. (4) ALWAYS BEEN CRAZY, another that was claimed last week, has been razor-sharp for several weeks. He's hard to leave off Tri bets. (5) THE AMAZINGSANDO has been right there at this level and he should be in the exotics mix again.

Race 6: NW5 (F&M6) or $40,000 (F&M $50,000) - Pick 5

(5) HONE THE TONE looked good on the lead until very late in the mile last week and he got picked off right on the wire. He should be leading the way again tonight and he is the one to catch. (3) HARRY failed as the big chalk last time but first-over isn't his trip. I can see him rebounding here; using. (1) MAGIC WANDA got the room she needed in the lane last week but she didn't capitalize. She seems likely to take another share tonight. (2) COLD RAGE should pass a few of these late and land in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 7: 4YO NW1 or $7,000 LT - Pick 4

(2) J M DEFLECTION wasn't asked to do anything other than pace the final 1/8th in his debut and although he was running in a bit, he showed some good late pace. Moving inside here, I'll give him the call to upset. (9) BANKROLL SEELSTER took a mid-race shuffle then re-rallied for 2nd in a decent effort and he is probably the one to beat in this spot; using. (4) CODYS KNAPSACK showed improvement last week and he should be in the exotics mix again tonight. (7) SUNRISE BEACH, 1/2 to local 24-time winner SHADES OF BAY, is worth a look for the Tri and Super here. It's not a tough spot to make a debut.

Race 8: PREFERRED

(7) PERFETTO started to look like the best version of himself again last week and he gets top billing this week assuming he will be in peak form now. (2) ONEY HALL was probably going to win if he didn’t break last week. That he broke in the same spot as he has several other times at this track is concerning, but he should be the main threat if he stays flat. (6) DREAM NATION is in top form and Young has been driving him great. He could offer another good price tonight in a spot where he has shown he belongs. (5) PIKACHU HANOVER should pass a few of these and land in the bottom of the exotics again.

Race 9: CLM HDCP $8,500 to $10,000

(5) MORTGAGE MY VILLA moves from the worst post to the best starting slot tonight; Roy speed blast coming? (4) LYONS IMAGE dropped and popped when claimed and he should be the main threat to the choice tonight. (6) MACHIN A TRICK was conservatively driven coming off a break in stride last week. He should get put into this race earlier and he is another possibility for late multi-race tickets. (7) MISSION THREE should close late for another slice tonight.

Race 10: NW $13,000 L5 or $29,000 L10 or NW7 LT AE: NW $100,000 LT AE: NW $20,000 in 2021-2022

(9) LOCATELLI gets to drop one level lower than where he won on 1/31 and J Mac is sure to put him into play here; top call. (5) FINAL CLAIM has looked tremendous winning two straight vs. lesser and he could be the one to beat here despite facing much tougher. (4) BUCK DANCER is another class dropper that is in with a decent chance in this competitive field. (8) PHEONIX comes off a win at this level but that field was easier. I'll use him underneath tonight. (2) OKEANOS tries hard every week and he can pass some of these to make it into the High-5.