Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 2/19

Top Pick Stats: 78 - 260 / $389.20 (-$130.80)

Best Bets: 13 - 24 / $39.60 (-$8.40)

Spot Plays: 2 - 23 / $6.50 (-$41.50)

Best Bet: RESPECT OUR FLAG (3RD)

Spot Play: DREAMFAIR MOXY (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 3,6/2,8,10/1/1,2,3,4,5/3,7,10 = $18

Late Pick 5: 3,7/9/2,7,8/3,4,6,7/4 = $4.80

Early Pick 4: 1,2,3,4,5/3,7,10/3,7/9 = $6

Late Pick 4: 9/2,7,8/3,4,6,7/4 = $2.40

Race 1: NW $20,000 in 2023/24 or N/A $1,030 per start in 2023/24 (Min. 10 starts) **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(3) CONTROL THE POWER was only a head short at this level two starts back when raced aggressively and McNair will likely put him into play early here; top call. (6) FOXHUNT likely needed last week’s race after missing five months. He gets a driver change to Jamieson here and he can be right there tonight if he improves slightly. (9) THATLL BE TIGER beat the choice at this level two starts back when the pace slowed considerably. He would probably need a similar set up here which is unlikely. I’ll use him underneath. (5) WILDRIVERBUMBLEBEE’s qualifier was okay, and he can land in the exotics tonight.

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Race 2: 5YO and younger winners of 2 (F&M3) but not more than 4 (F&M5) or $45,000 LT

(2) MERCUTIO was good in defeat last week, but he provided perfect cover for a rival that got up to nail him right on the wire. He can turn the tables tonight. (10) KRUISE ON DOVER latched onto the choice’s helmet and he got up for the win. The 10-hole isn’t much worse than the rail and he is a threat to repeat. (8) CENTURY JAGUAR was racing well until he broke last week. Henry has been a good partner for him in the past. He can threaten if he stays flat tonight. (5) R ROYAL PORT crushed easier last week and he loses Macdonald here and I see him as a fringe player.

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Race 3: NW $1,980 L3 AE: starters for a purse of $7,500 or less L3

(1) RESPECT OUR FLAG hasn’t raced this low since last May and on that night, he crushed lower level conditioned horses at Flamboro Downs. His class edge should show here. (5) MARSHALL ZHUKOV comes off a nice win at Flamboro and gets Macdonald tonight. He can be an Exacta factor here. (3) MAJOR HILL gets needed post relief here and he was beaten only three lengths in a good field two starts back. He can be part of the exotics. (4) SKYLAR woke up last time at Flamboro and he can take a share here.

Race 4: CLM $8,000 - Pick 4

(3) DREAMFAIR MOXY gets Cullen back tonight and he came close at this level with that driver in the bike two starts back. I’ll take a price shot with him in what looks like a wide-open race. (5) FEAR THE DICE is 0 for 7 this year but he keeps getting raced aggressively and taking shares. He will get there soon, maybe tonight. (2) D J SEELSTER should improve on the class drop tonight, especially since he won’t have to chase Hes Got Swagger around the track; using. (1) UF BETTORS HANOVER flew late last week, and he is another in with a chance in a tough race.

Race 5: CLM HDCP $55,000 to $65,000

(10) DISTANCE LEARNING couldn’t be any sharper and him drawing post 10 ensures a good price tonight; call to repeat. (3) BUCK DANCER trotted a 27 3/5 kicker one the lead and was still picked off by the choice. He should be the one to catch again and he has post position advantage; using. (7) NASEY got a great trip and had a clear shot at the two choices in the lane, but he was trotting a 27 1/5 kicker and he couldn’t get to them as they accelerated. I could see him winning here if things shake out his way. (7) ALL WRAPPED UP will likely take back early and come on late for a share.

Race 6: CLM HDCP $19,000 to $24,000 - Pick 5

(3) YACHT SEELSTER dropped, took a lot of action, and he closed from last at the 3/4 to get the job done. He faces similar tonight; call to repeat. (7) MACH IMPACT got Jamieson back in the bike and he got an aggressive steer and crushed. A repeat of that mile would make him tough here; using. (6) VIPER was bottled up until very late in the mile and he closed well when he found room along the pylons. He’s in the exotics mix here. (4) BIG BULLY had no answer for the choice’s big stretch kick. I prefer to use him underneath in this spot.

Race 7: CLM HDCP $10,000 to $12,000 - Pick 4

(9) HAPUNA BEACH simply doesn’t lose at this level; enough said. (1) MACH ART IN MOTION is in peak form and trainer Merner has been hot this week. He will likely be the late threat. (6) BRODYS SCRAPPER has been on a roll on the B tracks, but he wants the front and so does the choice. He will likely accept a following trip and stick around for a share. (7) SNAP TEST should be good for another small share in this spot.

Race 8: NW $16,750 L5 or NW $100,000 LT AE: NW $26,000 L5 draws outside

(6) LOCATELLI last won when he dropped from the Preferred level on 1/22 and he gets the nod here making a similar class plunge. (7) PERFETTO also drops, and he got a tightener in at the top class last week. He has been a consistent performer for several years and he would be no surprise in this spot. (2) PIKACHU HANOVER is another that last won when making the same drop he is here, and he is another in with a chance here. (8) PATRIARCH HANOVER dominated easier here last week. He is likely a fringe player facing several droppers.

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Race 9: CLM HDCP $19,000 to $24,000

(3) HES GOT SWAGGER gets class tested tonight but he has looked so good winning his past two starts that he might be up to it. (7) MASKEDMAN is an obvious contender dropping back to the level where he was claimed by Moreau. He would be no surprise here and I imagine he will get claimed. (6) KINCAID SEELSTER couldn’t get close to a loose leader last week. He will be closing here, and he should get a slice. (4) NORTHERN SPY is sharp, and he comes to play every week. He is a good one to use underneath.

Race 10: NW $9,600 L3 AE: NW $60,000 LT

(4) SPECIAL MISSION just took a new life’s mark in a stellar performance, and he is on a roll that is unlikely to be stopped here. (10) IMA STANDUP GUY is another that took a new life’s mark, improving sharply on the barn change. His sustained wide bid was impressive, and he could add some value to the exotics starting from the widest post here. (2) VILLEFRANCHE AS raced better last week, and he can sit a trip again and take another share here. (6) MACALLAN drops but this is no easy spot; small share predicted. (7) MUNK failed to convert at 3 to 5 and this is a tougher field. He is another that will likely finish on the fringes.