Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 1/29

Top Pick Stats: 42 - 128 / $215.70 (-$40.30)

Best Bets: 6 - 12 / $17.90 (-$6.10)

Spot Plays: 1 - 12 / $3.20 (-$20.80)

Best Bet: TOO MUCH DUNCAN (8TH)

Spot Play: ORDER ONE TO GO (10TH)

Early Pick 5: 6/1,6,8,9/5,7/1,5,8/3,5,6 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 3,6/1,6,7/8/3,4/3,6 = $4.80

Early Pick 4: 1,5,8/3,5,6/3,6/1,6,7 = $10.80

Late Pick 4: 8/3,4/3,6/5,6,9 = $2.40

Race 1: NW $17,000 L5 or $110,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $70,000 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(6) WHITE TIGER looked a winner for 99% of the mile last week until his class dropping stablemate kicked into high gear nearing the wire and nailed him. He should handle this group. (7) HANDSOME SEBASTIAN has fulfilled his potential with Filion in the bike and he should be an Exacta factor again tonight. (5) FIX A DRINK is in solid form and he can take another share in this spot. (1) PATRIARCH HANOVER will likely sit a trip racing near the front and stick around for a share.

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Race 2: 5YO and younger winners of 2 (F&M3) but not more than 4 (F&M5) or $45,000 LT

(8) PASSARINO has been right there in all three of his starts since returning to the races and he looks good to break through with a win here. (1) CENTURY JAGUAR raced well enough to win last time but he was collared late by a rival that has already come back to jog at this level. The stale date is the concern with this gelding. (9) IM ABOVE AVERAGE got the key driver change to Roy, took a lot of action at the windows, and jogged vs. easier. He is worth using in the Pick 5 with his 10 to 1 morning line quote. (6) CRYSTAL BALLER is capable of better than he showed last time. Starting from the best post, he is another that is worth a price look.

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Race 3: CLM HDCP $10,000 to $12,000

(5) HES GOT SWAGGER had little chance against hot Hapuna Beach last week but he looks good in here making his second start off the Cullen claim; top call. (7) ISITFRIDAYYET gets Macdonald racing off the Fellows claim and he figures to be the main threat here; using. (1) FEAR THE DICE should be better racing off the Auciello claim, but it’s hard to get past that most recent ugly line; small share predicted. (3) J J TOMMY is another that gets away from Hapuna Beach and he can land in the exotics vs. these.

Race 4: NW $9,000 L5 AE: NW $55,000 LT - Pick 4

(1) MUNK took two wins in a frow pressing first up and although he faces tougher here, I can see Macdonald tripping him out for the threepeat. (8) DISTANCE LEARNING was very live last week, making multiple moves and just getting nailed. He is the one to fear here. (5) DREAM NATION has hit his best stride and he has beaten better than these before. He is another possibility and he will likely offer a decent price.

Race 5: CLM HDCP $19,000 to $24,000

(5) HAPUNA BEACH is one of the hottest horses on the grounds and Hensley will surely send him and take no prisoners. (3) SWEET DEISEL is interesting to me here because of the class drop and Roy siding with him over the choice and the #4; price look for the multis. (6) JAKE LOEWEN is another dropper that figures here. Notice he was winning in 1:52 3/5 on 1/1. (8) KINKAID SEELSTER comes off a huge upset win but draws worse now. I’ll use him on the bottom.

Race 6: CLM HDCP $55,000 to $65,000 - Pick 5

(6) CHULO took a lot of action last week dropping back into this claiming level and he was driven aggressively and converted. He fits best in this class right now and he gets the call to repeat. (3) NASEY was better returning to a 7-day rotation last week and he was flying at the choice late. He gets J Mac now and he should be a threat right back. (1) BUCK DANCER has developed an effective closing style but I don’t love the rail post for him here. I’ll use him underneath. (8) WARRAWEE XALT should flash speed and stick around for a share in this spot.

Race 7: NW $1,900 L3

Class droppers will likely dominate this race. (1) TORONTO, who I expect will get a very aggressive Hensley drive, gets the nod. (6) HESINCONTROL will likely lay much closer early in the mile vs. these and he is hard to leave out at this level. (7) PALLADIUM HANOVER is another that is in easier that should get a more aggressive steer. I can see any of the top three choices taking the win. (3) SKYLAR raced better last week, flashing early speed. He can land in the exotics tonight.

Race 8: CLM $8,000 - Pick 4

(8) TOO MUCH DUNCAN races off the Waxman claim, gets Roy, and meets a field that seemingly has very little gate speed; down the road. (1) COIN FLIP paced a nice back 1/2 last week and I can see him closing to complete the Exacta. (4) MACH ART IN MOTION typically fires home quickly and he can share here. (7) DELIGHTFUL MAGIC has been racing well at Flamboro Downs and he is worth a price look for the bottom of the exotics.

Race 9: PREFERRED

(3) AMIGO VOLO’s stale date likely got him in his last start. He can rebound here. (4) ONEY HALL easily powered past the choice and he is the obvious one to fear. (5) LOCATELLI is in tougher here but he is sharp enough and talented enough to land in the Tri. (1) SOUTHWIND ONCORE has been racing well recently and he can sneak into the Super despite stepping up to the top class.

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Race 10: CLM HDCP $30,000 to $40,000

(3) ORDER ONE TO GO impressed me last week, starting a very early outside move, grabbing cover, then powering home to tie his lifetime mark. I’ll give him the call to repeat despite facing tougher. (6) DONTPOKETHEDRAGON is the obvious one to beat looking to notch the sixpeat here. He will have to be caught. (4) THRILLING TIMES should get a better trip tonight and land in the exotics. (5) ST LADS BEAT IT converted as the 1 to 2 chalk but this is a tougher field and a small share is likely for him in this spot.

Race 11: Horses that have started for a purse of $9K or less in 1 of L4

Anything close to (6) ARMOR SEELSTER’s best race takes this and his qualifier indicates that he is ready to roll; top call. (5) ONTOP RAINMAN finished fast in both of his qualifiers and he is another fresh horse that could fire right away; using. (9) HUNTER HILL was raced aggressively facing similar last week and he should be in the mix again. (8) SPORTS SECTION has taken shares in two straight at a similar level. He should close for another slice. (10) ACTOR HANOVER couldn’t last on the engine now he draws widest. A small share is likely his ceiling here.